1/3 of dissapproval

[Laura PourMeADrink]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/07/cnn-poll-of-polls-presidents-approval-rating-remains-in-the-mid-forties/

"Approval ratings are a useful measure of an incumbent's chances of re-election, but they are not meant to be a prediction of the vote in the next election," notes CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In Obama's case, for example, polls indicate that roughly one in three Americans who disapprove of him feel that way because he has not been liberal enough. Those people may not vote for Obama by staying at home on election day or voting for a third-party candidate, but they are probably not going to vote Republican."

[liberal N proud]

1. The republicans are just as happy if they keep people form voting

They don't think everyone that voted for Obama in 2008 should have been allowed to vote anyway, so either way, it is a win for them.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

2. I am hoping that hoax Rove email about infiltrating left wing sites

to foment dissatisfaction is actually true and that there really aren't that many real Dems who dislike him that
much to not even vote.

CNN should take the poll one step further. Of that 1/3 who disapprove, will they vote?

[karynnj]

3. I wish all the polls would have a follow up question for the "disapprove"

to capture their likely vote.

Daily Kos had PPP do this in one poll a while back. They asked the disapproves if they would definitely vote for Obama, somewhat likely vote for Obama, somewhat likely not vote for him and definitely not vote for Obama. So many pundits in the past, implicitly assumed that the first two categories were zero. They then propounded a decision rule that if an incumbent President was below 50 he would likely lose. The fact is that that likely was never true - in 2004, there were the libertarian, non interventionist, small government people very unhappy with Bush (think Buchanan or Ron Paul) - but who would never vote for a liberal or progressive Democrat (and from their perspective Ben Nelson is a liberal!)


DK was the first place I saw this asked - and it might be better to include the option of third party and not voting at all. This may be why many polls have Obama beating any Republican and having an approval rating in the low 40s.

It also suggests that JUST TO DENY THE RW THEIR TALKING POINT, disappointed lefties might strategically be better off saying they approve.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. And yet, if we say we approve when we do NOT approve of targeted

assassinations, increased drone strikes, privatizing schools, etc., that give Obama no glimmer of an understanding that what he's doing is wrong. If we can say "I don't approve because..." he just might be able to figure it out and stop reaching to the right to capture the 'independents'.

[karynnj]

5. Polls do not allow for the "because" statement

It is usually not possible to see why people disapprove - just that they do. This gives him less leverage when pushing things like the jobs bill. Not to mention, do you think there is any elected leader who you could say you agree with every single thing he or she has done. How much agreement do you need to switch to "agree"?