GALLUP: Obama 43 (+4), Generic GOP 42 (-3).

[jefferson_dem]

Obama Back to Even With "Generic" Republican Candidate
Independents now evenly split after previously favoring the Republican
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Obama now essentially ties, 43% to 42%, a "generic" Republican candidate when U.S. registered voters are asked whom they are more likely to vote for in the presidential election next year. This marks a change from October and September, when the Republican candidate was ahead, and underscores the potential for a close presidential race in the year ahead.



Voter preferences on this measure have shifted somewhat from survey to survey over the last year, but support for both Obama and the Republican has varied within a relatively narrow 38% to 47% range.

Obama gains two percentage points in his advantage over the Republican when taking into account the leanings of undecided voters, but the two remain in a 48% to 45% statistical tie.

Republicans and Democrats still firmly support their party's candidate, although Democrats are slightly more likely to support the Republican candidate than is the case for Republicans with regard to support for Obama. Independents are split, giving 38% support to each candidate. Obama manages a one-point lead among all registered voters because more identify as Democrats than as Republicans.

The evenness of independents' preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin. The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly matched.

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http://www.gallup.com/poll/150677/Obama-Back-Even-Generic-Republican-Candidate.aspx

[DCBob]

1. the momentum has shifted..

lets keep it going.

[totodeinhere]

5. I don't think so. Look for these polls to continue to fluctuate. The only poll that matters is the

one taken next November. Remember last August when Obama temporarily went up 45-39 over a generic Republican and people at DU crowed about that. Then within a couple of weeks the trend was reversed. Look for this type of dynamic to continue.

[Silent3]

2. "Generic" candidates generally poll higher than the real thing

At least that's my recollection from previous elections. People can project want they want to imagine on generic candidates, and generic candidates don't have any specific character flaws or scandals to worry about. If Obama is a little ahead, or even just a little behind, a generic Republican that bodes well for his reelection.

As much as the terrible economy is going to drag Obama's reelection chances down, the current crop of Republican candidates is playing so far to the right to win over the Tea Party crazies that I have a hard time imagining that the eventual winner (probably Romney, but who knows?) can successfully shift to the center to win the general election. I don't think any of the Republican candidates will be able to bear the scrutiny of a general election very well.

What I'm really hoping for is that Romney wins the nomination simply because he's the least weak of a weak crop of candidates, only getting a plurality but not a majority of Republican support, and then enraged Tea Partiers, not at all happy about Romney's suspect ideological purity, run a third party foaming-at-the-mouth ultra conservative as an independent, splitting the Republican vote.

That would practically guarantee Obama's reelection, and it doesn't seem to me a terribly unlikely scenario.

[Fozzledick]

3. Isn't Romney the generic candidate?

:shrug:

[Yavin4]

6. Romney Is A Sugar Pill n/t

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Interesting

What is good about this poll is the the more of the Republican candidates the public sees, the better Obama does in the polls. It's certainly economic related as well. I have a feeling the economy has had just enough stimulus and Obama will do just barely enough to get it moving right along in 2012. Unemployment will remain above 8%, but we could be showing some real good growth by next fall and that will virtually guarantee Obama gets 4 more years.

Even if the economy basically stays the same as it's bee for the last year, with modest growth, I see a relatively assured Obama victory.

I love it when those on the right sight "historical data" that suggests Obama faces an uphill battle. Based upon what sample size I ask? 2? Carter and Bush I in the last 50 years. Not a big enough sample to make assumptions.

Obama is the odds on favorite to win reelection. That's a fact and that's also what Vegas would tell you if you care to wager on such things. Vegas has only one allegiance and it's green.

[Hippo_Tron]

7. That's why next year's outcome is still uncertain

Given President Obama's approval ratings, you'd think he would be headed straight for defeat. But the Republicans are equally, if not more, unpopular than he is.