The Great Rope a Dope trick

[babylonsister]

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/11/22/the_great_rope_a_dope_trick//

The Great Rope a Dope trick
By Jon Taplin - November 22, 2011, 12:49PM

snap!! or snip//

Last summer during the debt ceiling hostage crisis, Obama appeared to be the loser, but yesterday Republicans woke up to the reality that they lost Big Time--that we were going to get $1.2 trillion in deficit reductions, with 50% of the cuts coming from the military and none of the cuts from Social Security and Medicare. The Congressional water carriers for the Military Industrial Complex are in a panic.

Republican lawmakers moved quickly Monday to protect the Pentagon from automatic budget cuts that will be triggered by the supercommittee's failure, with the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee saying he'll soon introduce legislation to repeal them.

President Obama immediately threatened to veto any attempt to undo the spending cuts. That means that Republicans would have to get a 2/3 rds majority to undo the first meaningful cutback in the Military budget in 60 years. In addition, if Obama also threatens to veto any attempt to restore the Bush Tax cuts in 2012 (they expire automatically on January 1, 2013), progressives will have totally changed the inequality dynamic, without having to pass a single piece of legislation.

So why aren't progressives celebrating this morning? Got me. As long time readers know, it has been my contention that the key to revival of our democracy and our economy lies in radically reordering where we spend our collective resources. That more than 60% of our discretionary budget flows to the Military Industrial Complex is just the most egregious example of Crony Capitalism. If you had suggested to me last spring that a Republican House would pass a bill cutting $600 billion from the Pentagon budget over ten years, I would have called you crazy. But that is just what happened.

So there is only one election that matters a year from now. And that is that President Obama will be reelected and able to keep his veto threat. There is no possible 2012 electoral realignment of the Senate and House that would give the Republicans a 2/3 rds majority.

This is an amazing victory and all we have to do to hold on to it is reelect the President.

[msongs]

1. conclusion based on facts not in evidence. congress controls what happens now nt

[dennis4868]

3. but they cannot stop the trigger!

Which they hate :-)

[grantcart]

16. That's what Boehner thought too. But it is 100% wrong. The cuts are

automatic.

The sequesteration cannot be undone without both the Senate and the House agreeing and over riding the President's Veto and neither of those things are going to happen.

[great white snark]

32. +1

Thank you, although it's frustrating to see what needs to be spelled out to people who should already know.

[pnorman]

2. K & R!

n/t

[zeemike]

4. It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

And then I will celebrate...I have had my hopes up too many times before to be celebrating prematurely.

[polichick]

35. Or, as usual, til the Democrats cave...

Maybe OWS will keep them from caving this time.

[Turbineguy]

5. Here's to hoping you're right!

:toast:

[DCBob]

6. Its amazing many on the left dont get this.

some day they will understand.

[politicasista]

7. Obama won't be blamed

but his allies are.

[ClassWarrior]

13. Who?

:crazy:

NGU.

[DCBob]

14. Go over to GD for a few minutes.

[ClassWarrior]

15. Sorry, but I don't see much activity there on this subject at all.

I take it you're given to hyperbole?

NGU.

[joshcryer]

19. Better to go back to the deficit commisson debates back a few months ago.

The same suspects making hilarious arguments bashing Obama when many of us saw that it was a win win for him.

Those same people are quite silent now that the analysis is being done.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

30. I notice that a lot.

:shrug:

[Ikonoklast]

39. They are scrambling moving the goal posts.

Didn't you hear, this is all 'old news', the latest whiny screed is that Mr. Obama isn't saying anything supporting OWS.

But you are correct, Mr. Obama played the Republicans, played them BAD, and they just realized they had their clocks cleaned and are frantically looking for a way out of the trap.


Lots of people here saw it coming, but those that couldn't or wouldn't look further down the road than their own nose were screaming "Sellout!", when in all reality, it was an artfully deployed mine that would only blow up in Republican's faces as soon as the Super Committee foundered...which it was designed to do.

[Number23]

59. I would love a comment re: OWS but I honestly don't think it's the Story of the Century

the way that GD obviously thinks that it is. Outside of DU, OWS is just another news story to the entire rest of the planet.

And I've also noticed that since his recent successes, his "liberal" critics are tossing everything out but the kitchen sink in an effort to convince everybody that he's a failure. In addition to crying tears (REAL tears!!) over his lack of statement regarding OWS, we are now supposed to get up in arms that the president is "considering caving to demands" (that was the actual phrase used in the OP, "considering caving to demands." Not "HAS caved to demands." "CONSIDERING caving to demands") regarding contraception.

Soon, we'll be hearing from "liberal" vegetarians absolutely DEVASTATED that the president will have turkey for Thanksgiving.

[shellgame26]

53. Thank You!

Lots of crickets now. I remember some very lively discussions on how Boehner crowed about getting 98% of what the GOP wanted...and some here bought it hook, line and sinker.

[Tarheel_Dem]

55. +1000

:thumbsup:

[blkmusclmachine]

8. .

:rofl:

[thucythucy]

9. I hope you're right.

[ClassWarrior]

10. I doubted that the Prez had it handled. But his strong invocation of the veto...

...convinced me. Thank you Mr. Prez.

NGU.

[MedicalAdmin]

11. Hmmmm. Is this a chess move? n/t

[ClassWarrior]

12. No. Is this?

:shrug:

NGU.

[MedicalAdmin]

27. I'm not sure of your post, but my post was decidedly

Not meant to be sarcastic.

The potential of a veto is good. Just letting the tax cuts expire would be really really good.

[ClassWarrior]

44. Usually the "chess" talk is meant to belittle the President.

If I misunderstood you, I apologize.

NGU.

[MedicalAdmin]

50. No problem mate.

I didn't take it that way. I saw your response and then looked at my post again and gently slapped my forehead while groaning "doh."

It's all good.

[shellgame26]

54. +1 for an appropriate use of Magritte

:rofl:

and who says dada is meaningless?

[ClassWarrior]

56. Bath tub.

:fistbump:

NGU.

[ellisonz]

25. Boxing.

Muhammad Ali vs. George Foreman 1974 in Zaire.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rope-a-dope

[GoCubsGo]

66. IIRC...

I understand that the President is a big fan of Mr. Ali. So, this should come as no surprise.

[Doctor_J]

17. I know of no sane economist who believe recovery will take place without tax hikes

on the hyper-rich. As usual the game is being played in the Repukes' field (spending cuts, deficit reduction) while we're told to celebrate because they probably won't have veto-proof majorities in the next Congress. and these so-called "automatic" things are no more automatic than last year's automatic expiration of the billionaires' tax breaks.

[craigmatic]

18. Taplin assumes that teabaggers actually care about the military but they don't.

They just wanted straight up cuts and didn't care where they came from.

[Doctor_J]

20. 11-dimensional chess again!

it's worked so well for 3 years. All those new jobs; huge popularity for the president and his agenda; bruised and battered right-wingers; improved infrastructure while advancing toward a sustainable budget. It's all good!

Wait. Maybe we have to wait for the 12th dimension for all those.

Unrec'ing this stupid fantasy

[Laura PourMeADrink]

21. the Super Committee was just a Mini-Congress with the same

biases. If the entire congress is intractably polarized, the SC would be so too.

Brainiac Obama figured that out.

[DevonRex]

29. Exactly. Nt

[phleshdef]

34. Dems probably knew how it would go as soon as they saw who was appointed to it.

We send in who is probably, at this point, our prime statesman in the Senate, John Kerry. They send in people like Jeb Hensarling.

[mikekohr]

22. THE DEBT DEAL BY THE NUMBERS, -President Obama Takes John Boehner to School-

by mike kohr

$4 TRILLION
The amount bond rating agencies agree needs to be cut from the annual deficits over ten years to get our fiscal house in order

$3.2 TRILLION
The amount the original Republican debt reduction plan proposed.

$4.2 TRILLION
The amount President Obama countered the original Republican proposal with.
This would have consisted of a 4/1 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases on the rich.

$2.2 TRILLION
The amount of debt reduction finally arrived at after the Republicans nearly drove America into default. Speaker Boehner used the Congressional Budget Office numbers as a baseline for the plan. The CBO’s numbers include the end of the George W. Bush tax give-a-ways to the rich which expire in 2012. Elimination of the Bush tax policies will cut the Federal Debt by $3.7 trillion over a decade.
In effect this works out to approximately a 1/2 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases on the rich.
Only 1% of the spending cuts come into play in 2012, the other 99% coming in the out years. Under the enforcement mechanism of the bill, Social Security, Medicare beneficiaries, food stamps and other low income programs are immune from cuts.

98%
Is what John Boehner is saying he got in this bill. If getting schooled by President Obama, and positioning the Republican Party in 2012 as the goon squad for millionaires and billionaires is what John Boehner wanted I think he actually got 100% of what he wanted.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheet-victory-bipartisan-compromise-economy-american-people

http://bobcesca.com/blog-archives/2011/08/upon-further-examination.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2021517/US-debt-deal-Obama-declares-end-tax-breaks-wealthiest-Americans.html

http://www.editedforclarity.com/2011/08/01/debt-ceiling-deal-the-devil-is-in-the-details/#disqus_thread

Postscript: Within days of approval of the debt deal compromise the S&P rating agency downgraded the United States credit rating to AA from AAA. Had the Republican leadership accepted President Obama's original plan of a $4.2 trillion reduction in the federal debt over the next decade this downgrade would have been averted.
The strangle-hold the Tea Party has over the Republican Party has in this case exposed the American taxpayer to billions of dollars in increased interest payments due to this easily predictable lowering of our credit rating.
No sane American would deliberatly poisen their personel credit rating, but the Tea Party and the lack courage and failure of leadership in the Republican Party has poisened our nation's credit and credibility, and yet again handed the bill to the next generation.

http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/2011/08/debt-deal-by-numbers.html

[DCBob]

28. +1

good info.

[Lucky Luciano]

60. except that the US Treasury is getting the cheapest loans in its history.

3 month T-bills yield exactly 0.00%. A checking account will outperform that! 4 Week bills last week yielded -0.01%! The 2 year note yield 0.26%, 5 year about 0.87%, 10 year about 1.88%, and 30 year 2.82%. Today the government auctioned off $29B of 7 year notes - the when issued's were yielding 1.44% before the results were announced - and the results of the auction were all the way through to 1.415% (after Germany's disastrously abysmal auction earlier today - ie people said, "Fuck anything European and let's buy the US bonds!!!!"). With the stunning auction, bonds rallied hard today (not to mention bonds generally rally when stocks get hammered as they did today).

The downgrade was muchado about nothing - nothing at all. If anything, the downgrade made people shy from stocks, so people just bought bonds insetad. :shrug: Go figure.

Not to say we should not try to get AAA back.

[bhikkhu]

23. Thank you!

I wish you could post this back in time, to when the deal was first passed and everyone here seemed to be in full-meltdown. I recall then giving an upbeat account of how they got nothing they were after, and how likely things were to work out in our favor...but "the narrative" then was little but doom.

[ellisonz]

26. He outsmarted them.

It'll be interesting to see if they cut a deal here, stall, or take it on the chin.

[Tarheel_Dem]

31. "So why aren't progressives celebrating this morning?" Because....

Jane Hamsher-Norquist; Michael Moore; and Glenn Greenwald haven't given them permission to. ;)

[polichick]

33. What a completely ridiculous statement. (The cutsy winky thing just makes it more ridiculous.)

[Tarheel_Dem]

36. !

;)


:rofl:

[polichick]

45. You and Psycho Sarah.

[Tarheel_Dem]

48. Say hi to the Holy Trinity for me.

Hamsher/Moore/Greenwald. :hi:

[polichick]

51. Don't bother saying hi to Rush when you check in for talking points.

[Tarheel_Dem]

52. Did "The Trinty" tell you to invoke Rush? If you didn't get permission, you might be in big trouble.

Afterall, I'm beginning to think they all work for the same cause! :rofl:

[polichick]

58. Wake up! Both sides of the establishment "work for the same cause" - which is why liberals...

...aren't so easily fooled.

[Tarheel_Dem]

61. I guess you're smarter than the other 84%? How "elitist" of you.

:rofl:

[polichick]

62. Well, studies do show that intelligence and being liberal go hand-in-hand...

The joke's on you.

:rofl:

Happy Thanksgiving!

[Tarheel_Dem]

63. So is it the 84% of us who possess this "intelligence", or just you 16 percenters?

You know, the followers of "The Trinity"? ;)

[dionysus]

65. .

:rofl:

[Whisp]

38. woah...

:rofl:

tis the truth!

[Hutzpa]

37. Why aren't progressives celebrating this morning?

because democrats are spending their time listening to republican talking point.

This should be a huge weapon for reelection.

Another maestro move by the Obama administration.

kudos Mr President.

:thumbsup:

[progressoid]

40. So there is only ONE election that matters a year from now?

Well, that's a steaming pile of BS.

[cliffordu]

41. Yep. Did it again -

Notice how all the time he was promising them the store and the lines in the parking lot he was working THIS little masterpiece into the mix.

Kind of like what he did to Trump while taking out Bin Laden.

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. Exactly! (nt)

[Vattel]

43. Keep dreaming

[vaberella]

46. Give us your counter which says this is a false scenario and outcome? n/t

[Vattel]

47. I hope i'm wrong, but I don't think it's likely that 600 billion

will be cut from defense.

[Hutzpa]

57. I thought it was 650

it's 600 now, well that's an improvement.

:rofl:

[Sheepshank]

49. deep down inside

I felt that this was a Rep set up. They lose no matter what happens with the committee.

Just one question remains. Most economists agree taxes from the wealthy/expiration of Bush cuts, are needed to help with the debts. Norquist's pledge flies in the face of this and every Rep, stupid and smart, signed this without realizing the full extent. Was this possibly a way for them to go beyond Norquist's pledge of allegiance, and still save face? Was the Super Committee sabotaged from within for this reason (amongst several others I can think of)?

[lunatica]

64. It's not so much rope a dope as it's give them all the rope they want

While we're wondering if he gets it, he's already not only gotten it but has a plan in action. This was no mistake or stroke of good luck.