By NATE SILVER
On Sunday, The Union Leader of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest newspaper,
endorsed Newt Gingrich for president. The endorsement represents one of the most tangible signs of parts of the conservative establishment coming around to Mr. Gingrich, who to date has received
very few endorsements from Republican elected officials. It also represents a blow to Mitt Romney, who had led all polls of the state.
But does the endorsement tell us anything about how New Hampshire Republicans are likely to vote? Or is it just fodder for a slow news day?
I’ve seen numerous analyses that have questioned the importance of the endorsement on the grounds that The Union Leader has endorsed a losing candidate on many occasions (for instance, Steve Forbes in 2000 and Pete du Pont in 1987). It is probably good to be skeptical about the value of newspaper endorsements overall, especially at a time of declining circulation and increasing competition in the media space.
These analyses, however, leave something to be desired. The problem is that they do not consider how a candidate performed relative to expectations. A candidate who zoomed up to 15 percent from 5 percent in the polls after The Union Leader’s endorsement would testify to the fact that it was potentially important, even if the candidate did not win the state. Conversely, a candidate who had been dominating the state and was at 55 percent in the polls, but who won the state by only a narrow margin after The Union Leader’s endorsement, would not be a mark in its favor.
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A Romney spokeswoman declined to comment on the endorsement and the implications it might have for the race. The Romney campaign put out a statement Sunday criticizing President Barack Obama for “not leading on spending,” but it made no reference to Gingrich or the Union Leader.
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Bill Clinton,
CNN:
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In an interview with the conservative online publication Newsmax, Clinton said Gingrich’s positions on immigration would help him appeal to independent voters.
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“That sort of splits the difference between the immigration reforms proposed by President Bush and President Obama, which would give a path to citizenship, and would be a version of what President Reagan did,” Clinton said.
Clinton wouldn’t predict a win for Gingrich in the race for the GOP nomination, saying other candidates including Mitt Romney were still putting in strong performances.
“I still think Romney comes across as strong and forceful and knowledgeable, and I think Perry did much better than he’s been doing,” Clinton said. “I think Gingrich is back in the race because he’s spent a lot of his time in life thinking about these things. And he’s gotten in trouble because of people who have an ideology instead of a philosophy, because at various times he’s supported doing something about climate change, which is anathema to extremes in the Republican Party. But he’s being rewarded for thinking.”
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Not sure why I can't stop...
:rofl:
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