If Cain leaves, where do his supporters go?

[jberryhill]

If there is a quick dropout, I don't think anything breaks in Romney's favor.

Among Cain, Paul, Perry, Bachman, and Santorum supporters, there's a whole lot of "anyone but Mitt".

I gotta believe, that like keeping the weirdo to the end in Survivor, that Romney money is going to keep at least two of them propped up.

[upi402]

1. Back to the home

Gramps and granny will make it just fine.

[Rambis]

31. They both go to Newtie

:evilgrin:

[Journeyman]

2. Wherever they are Abel . . .

[ellisonz]

3. Pig Newton.

x(

[jberryhill]

4. Ummm... Don't know the reference there.

[ellisonz]

5. Newton Leroy "Newt" Gingrich

Also: it was a comic strip from the 80s: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_Newton

[jberryhill]

6. Rofl, and a video game

So that only propels the Grinch higher. The religious ones stick with the last survivor among Perry, Bachmann and Santorum, but when you get down to it, they go to Newt too because Romney is in a "cult".

[Skittles]

7. hopefully they'll crawl back under their rock

[NBachers]

8. Hopefully, into the laundry. Sounds like he's had quite a workout

[jberryhill]

10. Brainbleach emergency!

[blkmusclmachine]

9. To the Grinch. Mr. Fig Newton himself. He's the flavor of the week.

[Divine Discontent]

11. anyone left standing except Newtons! he's got all he will get until he's the last dork standing

then Mittens will have ALL the neocons and teabagger bigoted fools all for himself... all 40% of 'em...

good luck winning anything with that!



Get it now, or one of a million other designs! http://www.zazzle.com/republicans_2012_keeping_millions_out_of_work_bumper_sticker-128659602907896843?rf=238107662556833486

[lamp_shade]

12. Hopefully they just won't vote. I work with a Cain lady who said exactly that. n/t

[customerserviceguy]

13. It depends

Looks like this latest accusation has the most power to sink him. With an affair running that long, there's bound to be some solid evidence linking Cain to the woman making the charges. If that comes out, and is reasonably proven to be true, all of Cain's support will evaporate, and my bet is that it goes to Gingrich, with the possibility that Bachmann picks up a small part of it.

Santorum is toast, Paul appeals to a tiny fringe of libertarians who like to call themselves Republican, and Perry wears the loser label. A bit may go to Mitt, but maybe enough to raise him a percentage point or two in the polls, the vast majority will go elsewhere.

[raging_moderate]

14. Pizza Hut?

nt

[JoePhilly]

15. Funny Farm

[Berlin Expat]

16. If Cain drops out

or is pushed out of the race, I think about half will gravitate over to Gingrigch.

That being said, one must bear in mind that a large majority of Cain's supporters were former Palinistas who lurched over to Cain once the former Governor took herself out of the running. I'd be willing to say that a sizable number of them will simply not bother voting, at least for the position of President (they'll likely focus more intensely on the down-ticket races for House and Senate).

A tiny handful may go to Bachmann (a certifiable loony if there ever was one) or Santorum (another crackpot). Ron Paul is little more than a boutique candidate, appealing to hardcore libertarians and Stormfront members.

I have seen that there are TV spots currently airing in Iowa trying to draft former Governor Palin into a GOP run. There's definitely a handful of the Palinistas who haven't given up the dream; whether Mrs. Palin rises to take the bait is doubtful.

Newt is a divisive figure, both among the general electorate, and the Teahadis as well. If you read the more hardcore conservative boards like FR, he's been called a RINO, a serial adulterer, a philanderer, etc. So there's a sizable contingent that won't vote for him no matter what. His recent stand on undocumented aliens has certainly infuriated a rather large percentage of the Teahadis.

All things considered, given the current GOP lineup, I'd say President Obama has a good chance of being re-elected, economic issues notwithstanding. There's simply no one on the other side. Mitt Romney? Forget it. The Teahadis will never vote for him, and if they stay home or blow him off in the election booth, the GOP has no chance.

Just the way I'm seeing things shaping from over here in Europe.

[WI_DEM]

17. Herman won't leave. But his supporters if they dwindle in a ironic twist will go to Newt!

[SmittynMo]

18. Does it really matter?

Look at the candidates? They, and I do mean ALL OF THEM, are a total embarrassment to their party. None of them will beat Obama. If I were a guessing man, I'd say Gingrich and Romney will be in it until the end. We all know the outcome after that. :)

[jberryhill]

19. The victory margin is higher for Gingrich

Then, there is the "third party" non-electoral majority scenario, throwing the election the House, which IMHO is our worst case scenario.

[Douglas Carpenter]

21. Obama could very well lose to Romney. It has been more than 70 years since an incumbent

has won reelection with unemployment at current levels. Besides, though Romney does not excite anyone, he is not fundamentally repulsive like Gingrich - nor can he be easily labeled as an extremist like most other Republican candidates. We cannot however over look the reality that it would be counter to historic patterns for the President - any President to win reelection under the current economic realities. I agree that in spite of this - Obama probably still has a slight advantage over Romney - but only slight. I do not think Gingrich is electable on the national scene even with a bad economy. He is just too unlikeable and he is too far from the mainstream for people to identify with.

Intrade is currently rating the chances of the Democrats winning the Presidency at 50.8% and the Republicans winning the Presidency at 46.6% -- I think that is a reasonable estimation of the possibilities at this time.

[jberryhill]

22. Those kinds of "iron laws" are the consequence of a small sample space

It reminds me of the stuff like whether the AL or NL team wins the World Series, then a D or an R will win the election.

I'm just not seeing Romney as all that "inevitable" anymore, because as the field thins, then Romney doesn't gain as much as the remaining candidates.

I have to believe that Romney money is keeping Santorum, alive, because Romney needs to divide the wingnut vote to some extent well after Iowa and New Hampshire.

[Douglas Carpenter]

23. in all probability-after Iowa and New Hampshire and perhaps a couple more primaries or caucuses

We will be down to Romney and non-Romney - most likely Newt. Santorum cannot get anything above the lowest single digits. He just doesn't have that X-factor. I suspect because he just doesn't look the part. - I suspect most of the radical wingnut support will line up behind non-Romney - once a few primaries and caucuses clear the deck. Of course it would be much better for the Democratic Party to have Gingrich to run against in November. NO matter how much one wants to believe that the reelection of Barack Obama is inevitable - that is simply not a dispassionate look at the facts. Romney could win if that turns out to be the contest. Obama might probably still have some advantage. But Romney could still win. The chances of Gingrich winning if the contest should go in that direction are minuscule - I do hope I never regret saying that.

[jberryhill]

26. That's why Romney needs two "non-Romney" candidates to stay in

An early devolution to a "Romney" and only one "non-Romney" looks like it could be a loss for Romney, and his people have to be smart enough to see that.

The question is, who would he prop up to split the wingnuts?

[Douglas Carpenter]

27. I doubt that he can. Already - the other non-Romney's are falling into the lower single digits

it looks like Cain will be out of the race. If most of the Cain vote splits toward Gingrich - I think that will define how the fight for the nomination will go. Of course serious Republican Party strategist would obviously prefer Romney. They might try some real desperate moves to take down the Newt. But, it looks to me that we will see a simple straight forward contest between Newt and Mitt - with the professional class of the GOP trying to make the case that Newt cannot win - but Romney can. But since that was the crux of their argument for McCain in 2008 and the hardliner wing-nuts seriously believe that McCain lost because he was too liberal and Mitt would lose because he is too liberal - they might find it hard to make a case based on electoral pragmatism - however obvious that is to the rational world.

[Douglas Carpenter]

20. probably to Gingrich

from salon.com:

The main beneficiary of this figures to be Gingrich.This would be entirely consistent with the pattern that has prevailed in the GOP race so far. Every time one of the non-Romney candidates has seen his or her numbers drop, the run-off has gone to a new non-Romney option — and never to Romney himself. Even before the White story, Cain had lost about ten points in national surveys, with practically all of that support moving Gingrich’s way. So it stands to reason that if Cain now fades from the mid-teens to the mid-single digits Gingrich will only rise higher. The resistance of the GOP base to Romney is well-established by this point. It’s not that Republican voters despise him; they actually seem to like him personally. But about 75 percent of them seem to feel strongly that he’s just not a good fit to lead the GOP in 2012. Otherwise, he would have broken past 25 percent long ago.

In fact, with Cain’s pending demise things could get very scary for Romney in the near future. If the pattern holds and Gingrich gobbles up the bulk of Cain’s support, the former House Speaker could be polling in the mid-30s in national surveys in the next week or two, potentially opening up a double-digit advantage over Romney. And his numbers could look even better in some of the early states, particularly South Carolina, where one recent poll already showed Gingrich ahead of Romney by 15 points (with Cain at 17 percent).

Nor does it seem likely that the Cain adultery story will also drag down Gingrich by reminding culturally conservative Republicans of the former House Speaker’s own adulterous past. After all, it’s not as if the details of Gingrich’s personal life aren’t already well-known, particularly among the family values crowd. But as Michelle Goldberg found in talking to some social conservative leaders recently, there seems to be an increasing willingness on the right’s part to overlook Gingrich’s three marriages, partly because he’s concocted a compelling redemption story (copping to past failings but insisting he’s a changed man since his conversion to Roman Catholicism) and partly because the desire for a consensus alternative to Romney is just that strong.

So yes, it really has come to this: We’re a month away from the Iowa caucuses, and adultery may end up pushing Newt Gingrich into a clear lead over a man who’s been married to the same woman without a hint of impropriety for 42 years.

http://www.salon.com/2011/11/29/newts_improbable_adultery_boost/?source=newsletter

[SmittynMo]

24. Republicans wont let romney in

He's a mormon. The Republicans will have non of that!!

[JoePhilly]

33. Trade one adulterer for another!!! Can't wait to the Family values debate!!!

[Wait Wut]

25. A lot of them have already said they'll "write him in".

And that, my friend, is all sorts of awesome.

[AtomicKitten]

28. The Olive Garden. Hopefully they'll get confused just driving around the parking lot.

[Blue_Tires]

29. Cain?? Supporters?? Surely you jest...

[yortsed snacilbuper]

30. Insane Asylum!

[animato]

32. The debates will be more interesting obama vs gingrich

yes?

[IDemo]

34. Katherine Harris

[madinmaryland]

35. Back to the basement in the mother's house and back to posting over at RimJob's site.

:shrug:

[Politicalboi]

36. Back to SIMS