Pennsylvania becomes major battleground for Obama in 2012

[alp227]

The Obama campaign says it is working on an expanded electoral map in 2012, preparing for battle in so many places that it can afford to lose some of the big, traditional states he won four years ago. Pennsylvania is not one of those states.

As is clear from President Obama’s Wednesday visit to Scranton, some battlegrounds are more equal than others.

Every Democratic nominee in the past two decades has won Pennsylvania — and Obama did so by a comfortable margin in 2008 — but the state has grown less hospitable to Obama in the past three years. Republicans swept the 2010 midterms, winning the governor’s seat, a Senate seat and five congressional districts, including the 11th District, where Obama will appear on Wednesday.

Yet unlike other similarly challenging states — Ohio and Florida — where Democrats think they can lose and still win overall, Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college votes are still key to almost any path to 270 electoral college votes. “It’s hard to figure out a scenario for a Democrat to win the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania,” former Democratic governor Ed Rendell, a prominent Obama supporter, said. “It’s not impossible, but it’s very, very hard.”

full: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/pennsylvania-becomes-major-battleground-for-obama-in-2012/2011/11/29/gIQAam7RAO_singlePage.html

[bluestateguy]

1. I still want him to come after Texas

Even if he loses it in the end, make the Gooopers earn it, and divert their resources away from other states.

[FrenchieCat]

2. McCain was told that he "Might" win Pennsylvania......

And it wasn't even close!

But yeah...not need in waking up to some fucked up nightmare surprise
come the day after the election...that's for damn sure.

[TheWraith]

21. PA is the great white whale of the Republican Party. They always think it's in reach.

And they always end up getting crushed decisively.

[ellisonz]

24. Correct.

Don't fuck with Philly and Pittsburgh.

[JoePhilly]

32. lol!!

[Mc Mike]

43. right on. nt.

[bigwillq]

3. Again?

:shrug:

:P

[UrbScotty]

4. Two problems with this story.

One, PA has always been a battleground state. The word 'becomes' is misplaced.

Two, they use the 2010 elections to claim that Obama is in trouble in PA. In 1982 and 1986, Democrats dominated governors' races across the country - yet presidential elections of two years later saw Republicans dominating. Michigan, for example, elected Jim Blanchard as Governor by decisive margins in both 1982 and 1986, but Reagan and Bush I carried Michigan by landslides (they were the last two Republicans to win Michigan, incidentally. Same for Pennsylvania.

Long story short, this looks more and more like another 'Obama is doomed/Obama is in trouble' piece that that so often characterizes much of the media's coverage of Obama's campaign.

[UrbScotty]

5. Incidentally, what happened to the plan to split Pennsylvania's electoral votes?

I assume it hasn't passed, since they're speaking in terms of all 20 electoral votes collectively.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

10. Last I heard the plan had been shelved

knowing Republicans, however, I would still keep an eye on it.

[Cosmocat]

12. I wrote letters to both my state rep and senator

both are Rs.

My rep, we disagree philosophically on most everything, but he tends to actually have a fairly decent ethical and moral compass. He wrote back and was not in favor of the measure.

My senator, a high ranking guy and very much party oriented. I did not hear back directly, but I got a general e-mail saying that he was supporting the larger measure where if other states agreed to it, the EVs would go to the popular vote winner.

I think the higher up Rs were really game for it, but once it got floated out were left with the sense that it was an overreach and backed away from it.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

15. That's good

The plan could have been very bad news for us in 2012 but I'm glad enough people were outraged about it to get them to shelve it. As I've said before, 2010 was a bad year for us but would likely help produce a backlash against the Republican Tea Party that could help us win in 2012.

[DCBob]

6. Actually if I remember right PA was very much in play in 2008 until just before the election.

Then Obama pulled away and won easily. But yes, PA is critical and a bit a bellweather. If he loses there it probably means he loses in other key battleground states.

[Cosmocat]

13. It was not as "in play" as the "liberal media" made it out to be

Gubanatorially and presidentially, it swings one way or another.

But, the state was still overall on the blue side in 08 - big backlash in 2010, though ...

[DCBob]

23. The polls had it fairly close in September.. but then Obama pulled away.

National Journal/FD 9/18 - 9/22 406 RV 4.9 43 41 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/21 - 9/21 500 LV 4.5 48 45 Obama +3
NBC/Mason-Dixon 9/16 - 9/18 625 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
Big10 Battleground 9/14 - 9/17 600 RV 4.0 45 45 Tie
Marist 9/11 - 9/15 535 LV 3.5 49 44 Obama +5
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/14 - 9/14 500 LV 4.5 47 47 Tie
Quinnipiac 9/5 - 9/9 1001 LV 3.1 48 45 Obama +3
FOX News/Rasmussen 9/7 - 9/7 500 LV 4.5 47 45 Obama +2
Strategic Vision (R) 9/5 - 9/7 1200 LV 3.0 47 45 Obama +2


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html#polls

[Cosmocat]

27. I always felt the polls were off a bit ...

They did not show the great margins of the Casey or Rendell wins two years earlier, and I think they were unable to account for the shear number of first time voters that got pulled in from all of the universities ...

[DCBob]

28. I think you are right considering how it ended when the actual votes were counted.

Perhaps the same dynamic is happening this year.

[Cosmocat]

31. We have to see as it progresses

and we see who the actual R candidate is ...

Most of those first time BO voters in 08 have moved on. I suspect that that the same thing will occur on a smaller scale this time. No way it will be as big as 08. But, I think the pollsters just can't account for all of the voters who they simply have never had on the books that can get turned out from the colleges.

It fades a bit every year, but Pa is still a traditional union state and also has a strong democratic presence in Philadelphia. Again, Corbett has done a LOT that will serve to get the democratic machine tightened up, at least this year. I think they just don't get a good handle on these things in their polling at times.

I don't see BO winning going away like 08 (if it is Romney as his opponent), but I feel somewhat confident that at worst he gets a close win in Pa.

[Dawson Leery]

29. Casey led by 8 - 10 and won by 19%.

That was not expected. Most were expecting a 54/46 race in favor of Casey, not the actual 59/40 for Casey.

[blkmusclmachine]

7. D or R, we're still pretty much getting all R legislation out of DC:

Nothing has Changed.

[great white snark]

19. People will still get out and vote despite your efforts.

Your failed efforts.

[fugop]

8. Do they even bother to write a new story?

Seriously, does the Post (and other papers) simply get the old story and change the dates? They may as well. I remember this story in 2008. It was written several times - first in the primaries, then later in the general. I'm almost certain I remember it from 2004 as well. I think the media just keeps writing this same story (Is Pennsylvania going to vote Republican this time???? Sound the alarm!!!!) and hoping that this is the time they'll finally be right!

Frankly, if that change to how the votes are tallied had come about, Obama might actually lose there. But if Pa. remains "Winner of popular vote takes all," then Obama should still win handily. But by all means, media, go ahead and keep writing those stories. Keep convincing the GOP to blow their money in Pa. I'm all for it.

[underpants]

46. Yes! but there is a new power! a new influence!!!

SANTORUM!!!

:rofl:

[WI_DEM]

9. He'll win it.

If the economy begins picking up jobs as it seems to be as late and it is sustained a lot of these closer than expected states will begin to fall in the Obama electoral column.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

11. 2010 was a bad year for Democrats in PA no doubt about it

but President Obama will be running for re-election in 2012. How popular are the Republicans in Pennsylvania right now? Last I heard Bob Casey appears to be doing well for re-election to the US Senate next year.

[Cosmocat]

14. I THINK it is going to swing back blue ...

the state at large actually was VERY blue 06 to 10.

Casey is a monster - he has his old man's name, and has won three statewide elections now by REALLY significant margins.

2010 was a backlash election. The governors in the state have a VERY clear trend of going R for 2 four year terms, D for 2 four year terms, R for 2 four year terms ... ect.

Rendell was coming off his second terms, and frankly was a lot like Clinton where he was good for him, but not great for the party. Corbett was AG and had been on track for years and beat down Onorato for governor.

Even in a bad year, though, an EXCELLENT senate candidate in Sestak darn near beat a R stalking horse who had been set up for senate for years in Toomey.

Casey is so strong, they STILL do not have a R to run against him.

Also, factor in Biden, who is from Erie, in the northwest part of the state, and served for so long in Delaware, which gives him some good pull in the vital Philly area.

Corbett has been VERY, VERY bad with his popularity since taking office. He absolutely refuses to allow any tax on marcelleous shale, which bothers EVERYONE but the most strident Rs, and balanced the state budget by slashing funding to public schools and universities by 600 million dollars.

BO has lost some of the self described Reagen democrat support, but with Corbett dragging down the R brand a bit, Casey on the ticket, Biden as meaningful positive presence, odds are that in the end the state will go his way by a small margin.

[blue neen]

16. Good analysis.

There is huge buyer's remorse over Tom "I'm a Fracker Backer" Corbett. There are also a lot of questions about his role in the Penn State fiasco (for lack of a better term).

Toomey thought he was going to win in 2010 by bigger margins than he did. He barely squeaked by, despite the huge infusion of money by all sources Corporate.

Now, if we could just get an alternative newspaper in western Pa, besides Scaife's rags...his papers are what seniors read around here and have influenced Westmoreland and Armstrong counties enormously.

[Cosmocat]

26. I HATE the trib ...

Born in jeanette - I have not bought or even looked at the trib since right when W first got elected, I just refuse to give him any business at all.

Corbett let the Sandusky thing ride past his election, flat out. And, these key PSU people involved except Spanier, and the second mile as an institution were very much in the right wing bubble. Had these people had similar democratic ties, it would ABSOLUTELY be couched as a democratic and liberal scandal ... 2cd mile board members gave Corbett over 200,000 dollars in his campaign last year.

The funny thing is, because of JoPa ending up getting axed, A LOT of Rs who are PSU fans are blaming Corbett. If we can get a solid D to run in three years, he or she has an opening.

[AlinPA]

22. Joe Biden is from Scranton, in the northeast part of PA, not Erie.

[Cosmocat]

25. YEAH ...

I don't know what I was thinking - I knew that ...

[LynneSin]

38. I think the Penn State scandal is going to hurt GOP since Corbett is looking dirty

Corbett knew since 2008 about what was happening at Penn State and some think he sat on the case while he ran for Governor in 2010 (Corbett was Attorney General 2003-2010).

Now that the first Civil Lawsuit has come out against Penn State, don't be surprised if Corbett is called into this and asked about what he knew when and why it took so long. The Governor of PA automatically gets a seat on the Board of Trustees at PSU which means at least one member of PSU's Board of Trustees KNEW that Sandusky was a pedophile for 11 months before any arrests were made.

[blue neen]

17. I wish Scranton was closer.

I'd love to go see the President today.

:dem:

[AlinPA]

18. Teabaggers took over PA: A US Senate seat, Governor and both state senate and house. It does not

look good here. Teabaggers are all over W. PA.

[bigdarryl]

20. maybe the Residents will get tired of them before 2012 with therecrazy policies

[blue neen]

30. I know a lot of voters, D & R, who are extremely disgusted with Corbett.

When he messed with the school budgets, while refusing to tax Marcellus Shale drillers--it woke up people who never bothered to pay attention before.

Toomey barely won his Senate seat in PA--he had tons of huge money backers--Scaife is one of them.

So, we'll see.

:dem:

[LynneSin]

40. Corbett pissed off alot of people when he suggested drilling at the State Universities

I think like half of the schools state universities are on the Marcellus Shale. Corbett suggested they could raise funds by allowing drilling on their campuses

Gov. Tom Corbett suggests Pa. universities raise money through Marcellus Shale drilling

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2011/04/gov_tom_corbett_suggests_pa_un.html

EDINBORO — Some Pennsylvania universities should consider drilling for natural gas below campus to help solve their financial problems, Gov. Tom Corbett said today.

The Erie Times-News reported that Corbett made the suggestion during an appearance at a meeting of the Pennsylvania Association of Councils of Trustees at Edinboro University.

Corbett said six of the 14 campuses in the Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education are located on the Marcellus Shale formation, part of a vast region of underground natural gas deposits that are currently being explored and extracted.

The Republican governor’s proposed budget for the fiscal year that starts in July would cut $2 billion from education and reduce aid to colleges and universities by 50 percent. The newspaper said Corbett emphasized the cuts are only proposals and that funding for education could change as he negotiates the budget with state lawmakers.

Here's a thought - tax the people who want to drill on the Shale and use THAT to pay for the education AND the cleanup.

[LynneSin]

39. They did it in a mid-term election that had lower voter turn out in Philly

With Obama on the ticket, the turnout from Philly will crush the GOP statewide.

[BlueIris]

33. Pretty sure he would get Penn.

And most of the other union...ish states.

It's that whole "not being able to win California" thing that's problematic.

[Sheepshank]

36. I was just thinking along the "union" lines.

When the public was given access to the information of all the anti-union crap from so many of the "R's" already in power and the chatter amongst those that want to be in power, it surely would have given them second thought of giving the Presidency to an "R".

[apnu]

34. PA's been purple for a real long time. This should come as no surprise to anybody (nt)

[harun]

35. PA is like half Alabama half NYC. You get 75% Dem's in Philly then in Appalachia

you might as well be in the deep south.

[Mc Mike]

44. PA Voted Dem in the last 5 presidential elections, sez the PA Manual

Vol 118, p. 7 - 85.

[Mc Mike]

45. The last 5 Prez elections in PA (or the last TWENTY years of

PA prez poll results), show Dem victories. Those numbers or figures don't look like a 'purple' trend, statistically speaking.

The stats looks 'solid blue', and predict a blue result in the near future, barring hijinks from the Urosovich bros., or electronic manipulation of PA polling data from other repug corporations like Triad, Art Anderson's Accenture, Hart InterCivic, Sequoia, etc.

[LynneSin]

37. Obama and Casey will both easily win re-election if 'Anyone but Mitt' gets the nomination

I've worked 8 major elections in Philadelphia (Two Clinton, Gore, Kerry, 2 Rendells, Casey-Senate, Obama) and everyone of those candidates easily won the state because of their hard work in Philadelphia. If you can get major voter turn out in Philly, the GOP will struggle to find enough votes statewide to win. Because Obama is on the ticket, I say both Obama and Casey will win by at least 10points.

[Dawson Leery]

41. Philadelphia and it's suburbs combined with Allegheny and the Northeast

will give more than enough votes to deliver the state's electoral votes to Obama.

[LynneSin]

42. Unfortunately it's a testament to how unreliable Pennsylvania dems really are

and it's a shame that it's Casey and Obama both running - they both have strong names to pull out the voters. Unfortunately Joe Sestak didn't have that appeal which hurt him. I keep thinking Specter may have won but who knows - it was just a bad year for democrats.

[Dawson Leery]

48. Sestak won Philadelphia, Montgomery and Delaware Counties,

as well as Lackawanna/Lurzerne, Allegheny, and Erie.

Democrats in the Allentown/Bethlehem area did not turn out at all. More Democrats could have turned out in Philly and Montgomery.

This is why Pennsylvania is considered to be a swing state. As you said, the Democrats in the state are highly unreliable.

[LynneSin]

50. Democrats will always in those counties - that' s not issue

But how big and how many voters show up - That makes the difference between a Democrat win and republican won.

That's why the Republicans in the state want to split up the Electoral vote. They know that Philly is their biggest challenge and if they can split the electoral votes it would help the republicans overall.

[Arkana]

47. Every year Pennsylvania is declared a swing state and every year it goes blue.

John Kerry managed to win it--I don't think Obama will have any trouble. PA's union workers will have soured on the teabaggers by November next year.

[yortsed snacilbuper]

49. Pennsylvania will vote for Democratic ticket in 2012,

I guarantee it!