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Hawaii Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-01-11 09:17 PM
Original message
Obama to make play for Arizona in 2012
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alp227 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-01-11 09:19 PM
Response to Original message
1. meanwhile Gingrich and Romney prepared in advance to compete in message
Will Latino voters buy into Gingrich's stance on illegal immigration where he opposed deportations that would break up families and wanted a more humane policy? Or Romney saying that such immigrants should have pathway to citizenship?
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MjolnirTime Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 06:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
17. Yeah, the Latinos are going to support the Party that hates them. You cracked the case.
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Hawaii Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 07:43 AM
Response to Reply #1
18. Obama should clean up with the Latino vote in 2012
no matter who the Repugs nominate....When Obama capaigns in AZ, CO, NM, NV, he needs to remind voters he nominsted the first Latina to the Supreme Court....He also needs to bring up the DREAM ACT and how the repukes blocked that from becoming law...
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #18
30. Colorado should be an easy win, demographics have changed too much.
Should have no risk of it going red unless there's major voter fraud, but we're on top of that.
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-01-11 09:21 PM
Response to Original message
2. All fine and good
But I want a 50 state strategy.

I want Obama running ads and making visits to Oklahoma and Alabama.

Make these Republicans earn every electoral vote. Make them run around the country to shore up every seemingly safe red state.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-01-11 10:01 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I expect them to make it 50 state.
They are doing Indiana.
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Ter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. They should make it 48 state
Utah and Idaho are flat-out impossible.
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LiberalFighter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. I would agree. But if the campaign is strong I would throw some there too.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Running ads in Alabama and Oklahoma is a waste of money
I'm not saying that the Democratic Party shouldn't compete in all 50 states in local and statewide elections. Nor am I saying that our goal should not be to one day make Alabama and Oklahoma states that a Democratic presidential nominee could carry. But with finite resources, you can't just simply start running ads everywhere. The way you get to 50 states is to expand the map a few states at a time.

Arizona and Montana are the next logical places to go. After that it's probably Georgia, North Dakota, and Texas.
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Tx4obama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. And looking at the state margins from 2008 ....
Edited on Fri Dec-02-11 01:30 AM by Tx4obama

2008 presidential election margins: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Presidential_Election#State_results

it looks like MISSOURI and SOUTH CAROLINA - should be added to Arizona, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, and Texas


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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #8
19. Missouri is a perennial swing state, thus I didn't count it
The problem with South Carolina (as with Georgia) is that you need a certain amount of white voters to get over 51% and white people in those states don't tend to lean pretty far to the right.
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GoCubsGo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 11:35 AM
Response to Reply #8
26. Not so sure about South Carolina...
While I have seen some polls that have him within 5 points of Romney here, this state is one of those who enacted "Voter ID" laws. We also have those godawful paperless electronic voting machines. I am not sure how accurate those polls are. If Romney wins the nomination, there is a good chance a bunch of people will either stay home or vote third party. However, with the voter suppression and the hackable voting machines, the race would still be close enough for the repugs to steal it. It's not like they haven't done that here before. (See: Alvin Greene. And, I wouldn't be surprised if that's how we got stuck with the imbecilic Gov. Nikki Haley, too.)
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tabbycat31 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 11:48 AM
Response to Reply #2
27. It will be
46 of 50 states have a state director on the ground right now.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #27
31. Great news! :)
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 12:04 AM
Response to Original message
5. Funny, I am thinking of moving there in 2012.
I helped Colorado go blue...
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handmade34 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. my daughter
just last week moved to Arizona and intends to help get out the vote for Obama...
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Woot. Check out this migration map:
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html

AZ is was getting an influx of people, though it's probably somewhat dated because the recession hit AZ very hard, resulting in lots of foreclosures (more than any other state if I recall correctly). You can buy a bran new house in AZ for under $35 sq/f. Obama is likely choosing AZ because AZ is ripe for people who were disenfranchised by GOP policies.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 03:54 AM
Response to Reply #7
14. During the last election I interviewed the leading pollster for AZ

They said that had the Republicans nomminated someone other than McCain Obama would have won the state.

McCain won his home state with less than 200,000 votes or 8 percent.

Only 5 people in a 100 need to change to swing it the other way.



Only GA MI and MT were closer losses for the President, which shows how close it would have been if they didn't have a favorite son on the ballot.
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craigmatic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 09:33 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. GA would probably be a better bet. We have a terrible immigration law here too.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
28. Boo hoo. It doesn't work now.
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 05:23 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. Try Chrome, doesn't work in Opera.
I didn't try Firefox, but it works still in Chrome.
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 02:10 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. I have only one thing to say about Arizona...
Who knows? If there is in fact, a heaven and a hell, all we know for sure is that hell will be a viciously overcrowded version of Phoenix — a clean well lighted place full of sunshine and bromides and fast cars where almost everybody seems vaguely happy, except those who know in their hearts what is missing... And being driven slowly and quietly into the kind of terminal craziness that comes with finally understanding that the one thing you want is not there. Missing. Back-ordered. No tengo. Vaya con dios. Grow up! Small is better. Take what you can get...”

― Hunter S. Thompson, Generation of Swine: Tales of Shame and Degradation in the '80's

Tucson is better. ;)
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 02:23 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. Colorado is too cold and snowy for me, spent most of my life here, and it's finally getting to me.
Tuscon has liberals so it shouldn't be too bad! I know some states get a bad rap but Arizona has had the worst foreclosure crisis in history. If lower class or middle class liberals want they can get a nice brand new house on the cheap! I really recommend others go!
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. Like I said...
Edited on Fri Dec-02-11 02:35 AM by ellisonz
...not Phoenix. I hear Chandler is hell too from a friend who lives there. Tucson has not just liberals, but beautiful people and beautiful scenery. Never been to Colorado. I spent a weekend canvassing in Tucson during 2004 for Dean. It was an amazing experience. :)
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joshcryer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 03:18 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Funny how these things go.
I was a big Deaniac but completely disillusioned after that fell to shit. :( Didn't even do anything for 2006 or 2008.
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 05:10 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Yes it is...
Edited on Fri Dec-02-11 05:55 AM by ellisonz
...there are a couple truths about successful politics that most politicians don't want to admit. There are two things that work and two that don't work in winning elections with a broad mandate.

1. People don't want to be fed platitudes and provocations for the sake of those two things alone.
2. People don't want to be fed the impression that you're more interested in beating the other guy than you are in working for them.

1. You can only state on a principles stand and how your particular position on policy is derived from in your own experience.
2. Never dismiss any group of voters out of hand and discount their belief that they are genuine in their convictions.

Avoid these two wrongs and do the two rights and you stand a damn good chance of being elected.

Howard Dean and Barack Obama both followed these basic rules and both have achieved their objectives to a reasonable extent. Dean lost the primary but took back the Democratic party. Obama won the presidency and is now poised to win a second term. It's important to note that their fund raising models are almost identical. They have a lot in common and worked together beautifully in 2008 in wiping the floor with John McCain and Sarah Palin.

Here's an example of how correctly practicing these principles works rhetorically:

Dean

Governor Howard Dean Announces His Candidacy for President - Burlington, Vermont, June 23, 2003

This is a campaign to unite and empower people everywhere.

It is a call to every American, regardless of party, to join together in common purpose and for the common good to save and restore all that it means to be an American.

Over a year ago I began to travel the country in the usual way one does when seeking the Presidency.

I believed that, by running for President, I could raise the issues of health care for every American and the need to focus on early childhood development. I wanted to bring those issues to the forefront of the national debate. And I wanted to balance the budget to bring financial stability and jobs back to America.

Most importantly, I have wanted my party to stand up for what we believe in again.

But something changed along the way as I listened to Americans around this country. On my first trip to Iowa I heard people speak of a profound fear and distrust of multi-national corporations. From New Hampshire to Texas I met Americans doubting the words of our leaders and our government in Washington. Every where I go people are asking fundamental questions: Who can we trust? Is the media reporting the truth? What is happening to our country?

The Americans I have met love their country. They believe deeply in its promise, our values and our principles. But they know something is wrong and they want to take action. They want to do something to right our path. But they feel Washington isn't listening. And as individuals, they lack the power to change the course those in Washington have put us on.

http://www.crocuta.net/Dean/Transcript_of_Deans_Candidacy_Announcement_June23_2003.htm


And Obama:

Obama Presidential Announcement - February 10, 2007 - Springfield, Illinois

Finally, there is one other thing that is not too late to get right about this war - and that is the homecoming of the men and women - our veterans - who have sacrificed the most. Let us honor their valor by providing the care they need and rebuilding the military they love. Let us be the generation that begins this work.

I know there are those who don't believe we can do all these things. I understand the skepticism. After all, every four years, candidates from both parties make similar promises, and I expect this year will be no different. All of us running for president will travel around the country offering ten-point plans and making grand speeches; all of us will trumpet those qualities we believe make us uniquely qualified to lead the country. But too many times, after the election is over, and the confetti is swept away, all those promises fade from memory, and the lobbyists and the special interests move in, and people turn away, disappointed as before, left to struggle on their own.

That is why this campaign can't only be about me. It must be about us - it must be about what we can do together. This campaign must be the occasion, the vehicle, of your hopes, and your dreams. It will take your time, your energy, and your advice - to push us forward when we're doing right, and to let us know when we're not. This campaign has to be about reclaiming the meaning of citizenship, restoring our sense of common purpose, and realizing that few obstacles can withstand the power of millions of voices calling for change.

By ourselves, this change will not happen. Divided, we are bound to fail.

http://obamaspeeches.com/099-Announcement-For-President-Springfield-Illinois-Obama-Speech.htm


Two different politicians, two different styles, but the substance of the speech is the same: we must unite to change the politics of our country because we ought to, because its the right thing to do, and I'm not going to do that by wavering in my fundamental personal principles or by making political calculations; this is destiny.

Of course they both had and still have no end of naysayers who think they didn't play the political game correctly because they transcended their political competition.

Now here are two unnamed examples of political rhetoric that doesn't work because they we're consistent in projecting the two aforementioned (I tried to pick one's people wouldn't recognize and I will post a link to the full texts if requested.)

Again.

1. People don't want to be fed platitudes and provocations for the sake of those two things alone.
2. People don't want to be fed the impression that you're more interested in beating the other guy than you are in working for them.

1. You can only state on a principles stand and how your particular position on policy is derived from in your own experience.
2. Never dismiss any group of voters out of hand and discount their belief that they are genuine.

We, the American people, must assert ourselves. In times of stress and peril in this country’s history, including world wars, a great depression, assassinations and attacks, other generations have put their differences aside, remembered their common beliefs and overcame great obstacles. And we've come out stronger and wiser for it. Now it’s our turn. No one person, including the President, has the ability or wisdom to singlehandedly solve these problems; nor does one Party. But together the American people do. These problems will be dealt with when our leaders come together, as adults, and honestly seek solutions that extend past the next election cycle. That will happen when -- and only when -- the American people demand it. Now you can do that at the ballot box and no election is more important than the one for President. And it demands a leader who understands this country, our people, and what America’s priorities ought to be.

Recently, I talked to a young Marine at Walter Reed Hospital. He had lost both legs in Iraq but was looking to the future. I asked him what he planned to do? He said he wanted to work with a nonprofit organization that was doing a lot to help people. Then he looked at me and said “I just thought it was time I gave something back.”

That young man, who's given so much for America, and yet still asks to give more, is typical of the men and women of the United States armed forces. Our country has shed more blood for the freedom of other people than all the other countries in the world combined. We are steeped in the tradition of honor and sacrifice for the greater good. We are proud of this heritage. I believe that Americans are once again ready to achieve this greater good: which is nothing less than the security, prosperity, and unity of our country.

That’s the belief that this campaign is based upon. I appreciate your support of this cause and any contribution you’re able to give. I’ll try to make you proud that you did it.


And another:

"I thank God for my mother's savings, the church scholarship, and the government loans that were the only way this Teamster's son could go to college. I want every child to have the chances I had, to go as far as their dreams and hard work can carry them.

"I'm not going to say what's fashionable in our politics -- that I'm a Washington outsider, that I couldn't find the nation's capitol on a map, that I have no experience in the highest levels of government. I do, and I think experience matters. It's what our nation needs right now.

"I'm not the political flavor of the month. I'm not the flashiest candidate around. But the fight for working families is in my bones. It's where I come from; it's been my life's work.

"With your help, we can take that fight to the most powerful office in the history of humankind. We can build an America where we grow together, instead of being pulled apart - where our economy's strong, because all our families are secure - where nobody's left out or left behind."


Most politicians say essentially the same things and it's really not so much what you say, but how you say it that determines whether or not you pass the authenticity test and are able to build a political movement to propel you to victory. People have to believe that you really mean what your saying. Following the contrived model of running a campaign like a Broadway theater production can only take you so far. The people want Shakespeare.

I hope you enjoyed my thoughts on political rhetoric and why Dean and Obama were so successful in achieving their goals. :hi:

Maybe I'll make this its own thread and see if people can guess the two anonymous speeches without cheating. Do you know who they are? ;-)
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ellisonz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 06:00 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Now it's own thread.
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Safetykitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 11:10 AM
Response to Reply #10
25. Description of Tucson.
"J. Ross Browne visited Tucson and in 1864 wrote the first American travel article about the town which he described as .”…a city of mud-boxes, dingy and dilapidated, cracked and baked into a composite of dust and filth; littered about with broken corrals, sheds, bake-ovens, carcasses of dead animals, and broken pottery; barren of verdure, parched, naked, and grimly desolate in the glare of a southern sun.”

Browne described the population of Tucson back then as …”a place of resort for traders, speculators, gamblers, horse-thieves, murderers, and vagrant politicians. Men who were no longer permitted to live in California found the climate of Tucson congenial to their health. If the world were searched over I suppose there could not be found so degraded a set of villains as then formed the principal society of Tucson. Every man went armed to the teeth, and streetfights and bloody affrays were of daily occurrence.”
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 06:52 PM
Response to Original message
20. Outstanding.
K and R
:thumbsup:
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Dec-02-11 09:08 PM
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22. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Safetykitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Dec-03-11 11:07 AM
Response to Original message
24. From the NYT no less.
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