Yes, Newt’s Up in the Polls. No, You Shouldn’t Take His Candidacy Seriously.

[babylonsister]

Yes, Newt’s Up in the Polls. No, You Shouldn’t Take His Candidacy Seriously.

Jonathan Bernstein

snip//

The reasons why we don’t have to take Newt seriously are many, but the most obvious is that, despite his recent polling, he’s still the same candidate with all the same baggage. He’s still got his history of deviations from party orthodoxy on practically every issue, and the ethics violations, and the marital problems. He’s still the same guy who wound up not being trusted at all by those who worked with him when he was in office. And he’s still got a long history of just not being very popular with anyone outside of the most intense of intense partisans—and even they are likely aware that he’s risky at best and more likely pure poison in a general election.

The lack of endorsements by party actors is the second factor working against Newt, and it suggests that the people who have the most at stake in the nomination see him the same way as I do. We’ve seen this year (Donald Trump?!?) and in the past (John Anderson 1980? Jerry Brown 1992? Rudy Giuliani 2008?) that practically anyone can get a rush of attention and therefore a surge in the polls, and if it’s timed right that can even translate into winning a few delegates. But ever since the early 1980s, when the modern selection process became fully in place, no one has come close to winning a nomination without strong support from party officials, elites, and assorted activists. No one similar to Newt has ever received that kind of support, and so far he hasn’t either: Just as was the case with Bachmann and Cain, he’s surging in the polls without winning over politicians, GOP-aligned organized groups, or other conservative opinion leaders. That rank-and-file Republicans, who are generally not aware of his weaknesses, are willing to say that they would hypothetically vote for him just doesn’t impress me as a reason to believe there’s anything to it.

more...

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/98031/newt-gingrich-surge-campaign-2012

[yellowcanine]

1. I wish we could take Newt seriously because he will be so much easier to beat than Mitt, imo.

Mitt can actually fake being reasonable and he will run a disciplined campaign which will not have a lot of distracting gaffs.

Newt, OTOH, can scarcely go a day without saying something outrageous, such as (paraphrasing) 'let's "reform" child labor laws in order to put poor kids to work cleaning schools so that they can learn honest work and not sell drugs.'

[WI_DEM]

2. I think people can whistle in the dark if they want--but I don't necessarily see Newt

as being just another flash in the pan. For one thing, unlike the others, he is well known and so are his flaws. The thing is it's Mitt who is not inevitable. It's clear that 75-80 percent of the GOP don't want him. They have gone from one anti-Mitt to another. Now it's Newt--and he is soaring in the polls. What will bring him down? publicize his scandals and he'll answer that he found God and God forgives him and so will right wing evangelicals. Will Mitt go after him as a flip-flopper? as if Mitt has any credibility there.

If Newt can win Iowa, come close in NH, and then decisively win SC--he can get the nomination.

[AnotherMother4Peace]

4. I was discussing Newt vs Romney w/some very intelligent people, & they share your view - interesting

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

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[PatSeg]

5. I don't think Newt really wants to be president

I believe he is just selling his brand, but Mitt wants it and wants it badly. That makes Mitt a more dangerous adversary in my view.