Is there a red state Mc.Cain won in 08 that Obama can win??

[center rising]

He is not going to get all the states he won in 2008 back again. Just not possible, so Obama just may have to win a couple of red states to make sure he wins next year. Problem is I don't see a state that McCain won in 08 that would go for Obama.

I see toss-ups or states where the Republicans can win next year. Florida, (29) Ohio, (18) Pennsylvania, (20), Virginia, (13), North Carolina, (15
Indiana (11), Nevada, (6), Colorado, (9) and New Mexico, (5), New Hampshire, (4).

How many states that Obama won in 2008 can he hold on to??

[TheWraith]

1. I think you're being extremely kind to the Republicans on those.

There is no real chance of a Republican winning Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and I would call New Mexico and Nevada extremely uphill.

But to answer your original question, Arizona and Missouri.

[center rising]

3. My brother lives in New Hampshire

And he says Obama is going to have an uphill battle there.

[Tesha]

27. If Obama wins NH again it will be a complete and total *MIRACLE*.

He is hated and despised here. In 2010, the Democrats
went from (rare) majorities in all branches of state
government to Veto-Proof Republican majorities in the
House and Senate and unanimous Republican majorities
on our Executive Council.

Tesha

[TheWraith]

29. This from someone who's been advocating Obama step aside for someone else?

Sorry, but your opinion is, to put it bluntly, extremely colored.

[Tesha]

31. Just so I'm clear on your prognostication ability: How did you predict 2010 was going to turn out?

It played-out exactly as I predicted.

Tesha

[TheWraith]

34. If you're constantly hyper-negative, eventually you'll be right.

How did you predict 2008 would turn out?

[Tesha]

35. I was completely confident Obama would kick McCain's ass.

Meanwhile, you're dodging my question: How did you
predict 2010 would turn out?

Tesha

[TheWraith]

36. No, I'm pointing out that one data point doesn't make you an accurate predictor.

Any more than a broken clock is "accurate" because twice a day it displays the right time. To respond to your pointless question, I tried to delude myself into thinking it was going to be okay, since I had no real power to control it.

[Tesha]

38. And if you think 2010 in NH is going to work out for Obama, you're deluding yourself again. (NT)

[RBInMaine]

46. Hogwash. You also elected some INSANE birthers. Dems didn't vote. 2012 is WAY different.

[Tesha]

49. Dems voted, but by far the largest electoral cohort in NH are the "independents".

In 2008, they backed the anti-McCain, but in 2010 they were
back to hating Democrats as per usual. And they'll be doing
the same in 2012.

Tesha

[Name removed]

50. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Tesha]

51. Well I'm glad that you, over in Maine, understand NH politics so much better than I do.

I actually hope you're right but I'm reasonably confident that
you are very, very wrong.

By the way, will Maine be removing Snowe this time?
Or will you continue sending two very-obstructionist
Senators to DC?

Tesha

[StevieM]

4. I wrote the same thing below about Arizona and Missouri. And I think New Mexico would be incredibly

hard for the GOP to carry, possibly as difficult as Pennsylvania, and more difficult than New Hampshire.

[TygrBright]

6. True, but we only have three electoral votes. n/t

[StevieM]

2. Obama can win Missouri and Arizona IMO. And a lot more if Gingrich is the GOP nominee.

I also think he'll hold onto all the states he won in 2008, with the possible exception of Indiana.

[Chipper Chat]

5. If Romney is the GOP Nom Indiana should stay with Obama.

Romney is hated in Central Indiana. He bought up some local factories and fired all the workers with no notice. No love for Der Mittens here. Gingrich is out-of-favor here too. The only popular Pubs are Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[StevieM]

26. Well, first of all, if Gingrich is the GOP nominee then I think Obama will win a lot of

traditionally red states. Second, Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996, so you never know. I've heard that Obama is planning to make an effort in Arizona, and he held McCain to single digits there, even though it's McCain's home state.

[aaaaaa5a]

30. Bill Clinton only won Arizona because it was a 3 person race.

Having said that, if Gingrich is the nominee, Georgia could be in play for Obama. And of course Obama will contest in Arizona regardless of the GOP opponent.

The odds are still very reasonable that we could see a viable 3rd party option in 2012. That could change the equation greatly.

[StevieM]

44. The polling in 1996 showed that Perot took more votes from Clinton then from Dole,

at least nationally. I don't know about Arizona. But Clinton got 46.52% of the vote, to Dole's 44.29%. That's a margin of 2.23 points. Perot got 7.98%. That means that if 5/8 (62.5%) of the Perot voters came from Dole, Clinton still would have won. I doubt that Perot took that disproportionately from Dole, if he even hurt Dole more at all. So I think that Clinton would have won Arizona in a two-person race.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

[aaaaaa5a]

52. That's not true. Perot took more votes from Dole than he did Clinton.

Perot took more GOP votes Nationally and state by state. This is what helped Clinton win the Presidency twice despite not having 50% of the vote either time (Especially in 1992 when he won with just 43% of the vote) .


Still, any scenario that keeps the GOP vote total down is okay with me!

[StevieM]

54. Here is a great article which addresses the Perot factor in 92 and 96

http://mydd.com/users/diamondjay/posts/getting-the-19921996-elections-right-ross-perot-did-not-change-the-outcomes

[TheWraith]

28. He's insane for thinking the truth?

In 2008 the GOP only won Arizona by 8 points, despite their candidate having represented that state for about 1.4 million years.

[pstokely]

43. MO and Arizona are more important for the Repubs

Dems don't need those states

[Tx4obama]

7. There are lots of states that Obama 'could' pick up in 2012

Take a look at the Obama margins in the states that McCain won in 2008 on the CHART on the link below

2008 presidential election margins: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Presidential_Election#State_results

I think Obama could pick up Missouri, South Carolina, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, Texas, and Arizona
in addition to the states he won in 2008

[aaaaaa5a]

33. For starters....

South Carolina is off the table. There are still to many people in the state who are not well educated (high school degree or less) and who live in rural areas for Obama to compete. South Carolina has not undergone the dramatic demographic changes (Northern transplants and an increase in residents with College or post College degrees) that North Carolina and Virginia have. This is why it is not yet competitive.


Missouri is a possibility. But it is a long shot. If Missouri didn't go blue in 2008, is hard to imagine it going blue in 2012. Perhaps a Gingrich nomination makes it competitive.


Georgia is about 1 or 2 cycles away from being contested in every Presidential election going forward. Atlanta is a large city, creating urban and suburban voters who are displacing rural voters. Larger metropolitan areas also have residents with greater educational backgrounds, which greatly help democratic candidates. Georgia could be in play if Gingrich is the nominee.

North Dakota is off the board.


Arizona should be in play


Texas is about 2 Presidential elections away from being a contested state. The sad part is if the hispanic population voted in percentages anywhere close to their population, Texas would be in play now. But hispanics still greatly lag behind in these numbers. Still Texas is close. When Texas falls, It will be darn there impossible to get a GOP candidate to 270, without a major political and cultural realignment to our political system.

[ellisonz]

8. All Fifty States.

:sarcasm:

[CakeGrrl]

9. None. HILLARY to the rescue!!!11!!

:evilgrin:

[center rising]

10. I like that

[CakeGrrl]

24. I'm not.surprised in the least.

[DaveinMD]

11. look closely at Arizona

it's a lot closer than it ever was before the Latino population is going more Democratic than ever because of the actions of the Governor and Legislature.

[UrbScotty]

12. AZ was too close for comfort for Republicans in 2008 - despite their nominee being from there.

That should tell you something.

[Safetykitten]

20. Absolutely pie in the sky dreaming.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. No

Some states are moving in our direction but the national climate in 2012 won't threaten to be as favorable as 2008. It's a worthwhile investment to put some emphasis in states like Arizona, as long as we understand that it's a preliminary step and won't shift their electoral votes in 2012.

It took a president of the other party stuck in low 30s to low 40s in approval rating for more than 3 years, post Katrina, to yank states like Indiana and North Carolina last time, along with receiving a wide margin in Virginia.

Next year it's back to the 2000 and 2004 reality, desperate to hold vital states and with a handful of biggies deciding the issue.

Only if Obama's approval ratings reaches 52%+, and stays there, can we think about previously unattainable states.

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Douglas Carpenter]

15. if Romney is the nominee - probably not.. If Gingrich is the nominee a number of states will be

winnable by the Democrats.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

17. If it's Newt, the GOP can write off Missouri, Arizona and maybe even Georgia

I'd also consider Louisiana, Montana and Tennessee winnable under those circumstances.

and it's even possible to accomplish the unthinkable and have Texas turn blue.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

16. Arizona maybe?

I think he would have carried it last time, had it not been for the Favorite Son thing McCain had going on there.

[Safetykitten]

21. Do any of you people actually live in Arizona?

[Robbins]

18. 2012

Top choice would be Arizona.I could Imagne him trading Arizona to replace Indiana.If Gingrich Is the nominee Missouri Is defently in Play.Even with Romney Missouri
should not be written off.The three Republicans that could put Missouri In play are Gingrich,Romney,and Palin(If she was running)

Gingrich would be a godsend for Obama.Romney would start off in Polls doing decent In Nevada,NH,Michigan,and possibly Florida but Romney Is defently beatable.Especilly
after some good attacks on his flipflipping and his business exceperence.

I realy think Arizona and under right environment Missouri are only Mccain States Obama should really focus on.At least for now till we get evidance others are In play.

[Safetykitten]

22. We are looking at a Carter type landslide defeat.

[TheWraith]

37. In your dreams. nt

[RBInMaine]

47. I think you need to re-visit your local planet.

[Leontius]

23. From what I'm hearing and reading Va my be lost by Obama

in the next election.

[DCBob]

40. Depends on who the nominee is. but it doesnt matter VA was just icing on the cake in 2008.

VA has generally been considered a GOPer state until recently with the demographic changes going on there.

[aaaaaa5a]

25. Obama is defending more states because he won more in 2008.

Nearly of of the tossup states went his way.


As for red states that could turn blue

Missouri and Arizona come to mind.


I see it like this.

Blue states that could turn Red

New Hampshire (If Romney is the nominee)
Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Virginia
Colorado
Indiana (Indiana is already gone)



Red states that could turn blue

Missouri
Arizona




The only states left on the GOP side are deep southern states that won't vote Dem because of the civil rights movement of the 1960s. And the great plains/mountain states which are very small in population (they are actually overvalued in the electoral college) with little diversity, education, urban or suburban residents.

[FrenchieCat]

32. He's gonna lose the election (just saying what you want to hear)...

and then folks here are gonna lose their minds.....
but considering how folks continue to advocate against this President,
as though the coming election were just a game.....
They will certainly have earned the resulting administration...

Cause you see, this election ain't a game; it is our very lives!

Have fun till then....as it may be the last of the fun you'll get to enjoy,
perhaps for fucking ever...cause the Internet won't be what it has been....
that's for sure.

[greiner3]

42. I don't agree;

With your post, your 'bumper sticker' nor your implied political direction.

First you say Obama's losing the election but seem to laugh it off. Then you say DUers will collectively lose their minds when he does lose. You are correct in saying this election is for our very lives but I am not sure which way you mean. Your last paragraph again brings up the meme that Obama will lose the election but end with an off the wall statement about losing the internet or some sort. Then you have the 'It's yes we can, not yes he can' crap. That's all and good but your post is off in so many directions that I have to take it you are for Obama losing the election, regardless of what ANY other DU member wants.

[DCBob]

45. Its a sarcasm post..

jeez.

[RBInMaine]

48. deleted

[DCBob]

39. The President has several roads to victory without any of McCain's states.

He most likely wins easily but if its close I think its going to come down to Florida once again.

[JoePhilly]

53. The media will do all they can to keep it close.

Obama should win by 30% ... the GOP has gone nuts ... but that would be BORING ... and so, the media will let the GOP clown car go forward as if they made any sense.

An honest media would call the election now and proclaim the GOP dead as a party.

[BklnDem75]

41. He won't need them

Obama's only possible threat is dropping like a stone because they just don't like Mitt. There's no toss up states unless you have a nominee. Assigning every nutjob with Mitt's numbers is just fuzzy math.