MA-SEN POLL: Warren 49 (+11), Brown 42 (+1)

[jefferson_dem]

:woohoo:

Poll: Elizabeth Warren soars 7 up over Scott Brown
UMass-Lowell, Herald poll shows attack ads harm both

By Joe Battenfeld
Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Democrat Elizabeth Warren has opened up a lead against Republican incumbent Scott Brown for the first time in their U.S. Senate showdown, but at barrage of attack ads appears to have damaged Warren and Brown’s standing among Massachusetts voters, a new University of Massachusetts at Lowell/Boston Herald poll shows.

Warren leads Brown by a 49-42 percent margin, outside the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. That number includes voters who say they are "leaning" for either candidate. But even without the "leaners," Warren still leads by a 46-41 percent margin, barely within the margin of error.

The poll of 505 registered Massachusetts voters was conducted for UMass-Lowell by Princeton Survey Research from Dec. 1 - Dec. 6, and shows Warren with her largest lead yet in the campaign. A UMass-Lowell/Boston Herald poll taken in late September showed Brown ahead by a 41-38 percent margin, so the new poll represents a 10-point swing in Warren’s favor in less than two months.

"I think she’s got the smarts to do a better job than our incumbent," said Dick Morrison, a Newton independent who participated in the UMass-Lowell/Herald poll. Morrison said he voted for Brown in the January 2010 special election against Martha Coakley, but is now disappointed in the Republican’s performance. "He’s a fence sitter. If he’s going to be a leader he should be a leader."

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http://news.bostonherald.com/news/politics/view/20111207poll_elizabeth_warren_soars_7_up_over_scott_brown_new_umass-lowell_herald_poll_shows_attack_ads_harm_both/srvc=home&position=recent

[Pirate Smile]

1. Awesome.

:D

[teddy51]

2. Elizabeth Warren is awesome and I really want to see her at the top, soon and I know

it is coming.

[MannyGoldstein]

3. Americans Yearn for FDR Democrats

None of this Third Way crap, thank you!

Thanks for the post!

[bluestateguy]

4. If she should win

How long before we find DU threads screeching that she "betrayed" us?

A week? A month?

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Depends on whether she turns hard right

And flings poo at her base.

But given her ferocious public attacks on Timmy Geithner, I don't think she's a closet Third Wayer.

[jtrockville]

16. Yep. That's the way it goes. If she betrays us, we'll call her out.

No rose-colored glasses in this crowd. As it should be.

[Cigar11]

8. Hold your Breath and see what happens first.

[Arkana]

12. I give it a couple of hours.

[MjolnirTime]

5. Now THAT is some good news!

[DCBob]

7. Wow! Very very good news indeed!

Could be a huge Senate seat pickup and for someone who will be a great senator and perhaps signals a trend changer.

[polichick]

9. Excellent - I told the Dem Congressional fundraisers who called that...

I'll be sending money directly to candidates like Warren - we need many more candidates like her, rather than faux Dems.

[WI_DEM]

10. I hope we can hold the senate--and this would be a very big step in that possiblity.

[Tarheel_Dem]

11. Great news for MA. Taking back Teddy's seat should be a national priority.

:kick:

[Douglas Carpenter]

13. to donate now for Elizabeth Warren for U.S. Senate - link

https://secure.elizabethwarren.com/?sc=web_header


.

[karynnj]

14. This is great news, but the fact is that it is not outside the confidence interval

I wish that journalism degrees would require a class in statistics. Here, both the Warren estimate and the Brown estimate have confidence intervals around them - and those confidence intervals overlap. You can not take the difference and then use the MOE for the point estimates and test whether the interval is all above zero. The problem here is that the small sample size leads to a very large MOE.

However, this does not mean that they are equal. The probability that Warren is genuinely ahead is quite high - and can be computed. (It might be good if the polling companies included the calculation so reports could quote it to accurately make the statement that this article tries to make in the wrong way.

I wonder if Brown will be further hurt by his hiding from the MA residents who spent hours camped outside his office. Brown voted, so he was there. It is ridiculous that he avoided his office for hours rather than speak to them. (In fact, imagine a very smart politician, who would send staff with sandwiches (or cookies) and explain Brown's schedule "working for MA" - and finally getting a 5 or 10 minute time with Brown "squeezed between commitments" How would that have coopted the entire effort!

[CTyankee]

17. My dtr and her spouse both have grad. degrees in journalism.

They both had to take statistics to get the degree. She went to Norteastern and he went to Columbia in NYC.

As for Brown hiding from constituents, his behavior doesn't shock me. He's a Republican! What you suggest he could have done, the sandwiches and cookies, etc is something a good Democrat would do. Proving that Brown doesn't work for the people of MA but for his corporate masters...

[karynnj]

18. That is good to know

I had long wondered if maybe they didn't because of the elementary mistakes that are sometimes made - more basic that this.

[CTyankee]

20. I'm not sure that most of the people doing these polls have journalism degrees.

My son in law complained about having to take statistics when he was at Columbia and we all kidded him about it. He's now a political consultant in Boston with a specialty in focus groups and in social marketing.

[Arugula Latte]

15. Oh yeah!

Go get 'im, Liz!

[AtomicKitten]

19. Specfreakingtacular!!! Elizabeth is going to take back Teddy's seat!!!!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. It shouldn't even be that close! What's wrong with MA?!?!?!?