I was wrong. Really completely wrong.

[TheWraith]

I'm sure that there are some folks on DU who think I never say that, but in this case it's true. I was one of the people who believed that Bin Laden had been dead for years, and that we were never going to get confirmation because there wasn't enough of him left after getting bombed to fill a watchbox. As it turns out, my estimation was completely and totally wrong. And I'd hate to be too proud to admit that fact.

[RandomThoughts]

1. I have believed he was dead for awhile also.

Or the sub concept of his position was known and he was not gone after.

Although all the topics on that conversation come from various news stories of varying credibility.

So although it is possible he was dead, and it was possible he was recently killed.



Is the Birth Certificate a forgery?





In more seriousness, I think his cover was removed, although that is a vague metaphor for the mental thought of hiding, or not going after him, that makes the most sense. Then again there is a long topic of if it is his death, or the thought that he is dead, that has the effect on a population, an effect constructed by depth of trust of the report.


And if you want to really think about it, the release of the Birth Certificate could be to create credibility for the release of that information. Since the BC establishes a form of credibility and credibility is required for the announcement of OBL being killed.

That might be the reason for the BC timing.



Most of my information comes from really small tells, like McCain saying with absolute sureness, that he would get OBL, in a way that indicated that he was dead, or was in a known position. So the next question is if he had been dead for years, and him being dead was what was decided to be announced, would it be better to say he was dead for years and people weren't told, lowering credibility, or a story of a kill and capture.

From that, the decision to say he was recently killed, probably would have occurred if he was killed long ago. So from function, who knows.


I would also say, how do you know he was recently killed, if things were always accurate, someone would have sent the beer and travel money.

The form of questioning means not using what you are told as a basis, from that the whole topic of Osama is irrelevant, accept for those that believe the media, and got there macros loaded from that, and since my macros don't get loaded from media, it doesn't mean much, but a change of US programs it indicates does have some meaning.

[Ohio Joe]

2. I was wrong as well

I never thought the US had the body hidden away but I did believe him to be dead with the body never to be found. Don't worry about it though, take it from me, you get used to being wrong :D

[loudsue]

3. I thought they just really didn't want to catch him. By "them" I mean bush crime family et al

I never doubted that Obama wanted to catch him. I wouldn't be surprised if the bush family would have sabotaged this attempt if they could have.

[whathehell]

4. Fear not...

At least one person here thought he never even existed.:eyes:

[seabeyond]

18. no way... lol. ah well. nt

[whathehell]

21. Oh yeah...anything goes on DU!..n/t

[Turborama]

30. I've seen two...

...who think he is fake.

:crazy:

[whathehell]

40. Yes...One never knows here

Does one?:wow:

[Liberal Veteran]

5. No problem. I didn't say it, but I was leaning toward the same conclusion.

Really, as "conspiracy theories" go, it wasn't an implausible or even improbable scenario.

Certainly magnitudes of likelihood better than the "birther nonsense".

I am prepared to eat some crow on that belief. Anyone have a good recipe for "4 and 20 blackbird pie" (hmm. conspiracy circuits notice that those two numbers show up a lot together).

[Curmudgeoness]

6. Did you think he was dead even after he came out with videos

that were talking about recent events? It was Bush who started that "he is probably dead, buried under rubble in a cave" thing. I never knew what to believe, but after Osama's videos being released after his so-called death, I realized that it was wishful thinking from Shrub.

[TheWraith]

11. There hadn't really been any of those for a few years.

And even then, it was usually audiotapes, just questionable enough to make one wonder.

The contrast to right after 9/11, when you couldn't get the fucker out from in front of the nearest camera, was what made it seem questionable to me.

[Curmudgeoness]

15. Good point, but not all were just audio tapes. I guess

that I just distrusted Bush so much that if he tried to make me believe that bin Laden was dead, I just would not believe it.

In fact, I have a feeling if he told me that the sky was blue, I would have doubted it.

[eridani]

24. Absolutely. Plenty of evidence of fakery on the post 2004 productions

However, it would seem that there are lots of possible reasons for not wanting to communicate personally that do not involve being dead.

[Terra Alta]

7. I thought he was dead too

and that we would never find his body.. I was wrong, and I'm proud to admit I was wrong.

[RainDog]

8. I strongly believed he was b/c of Bhutto's remarks

but couldn't say so with certainty.

but Hersch's reports in the New Yorker on the Tora Bora stand down made it plausible to wonder why OBL wasn't caught and the ISI was allowed to airlift people out of the region, according to Hersch's article.

[mrcheerful]

9. I never thought OBl was dead because of who the Chimpinator hung out with and I

have a feeling they kept Chimp very well informed on OBL. I remember very well how Chimp got ready to make one of his dumb ass decider decisions and out of the blue OBL managed to put out a video yet after Chimp was out of office the OBL tapes slowed down, I believe there has only been one OBBL tape since Obama took over, I could be wrong because I stopped watching news sometime in 2001 when all the 9/11 hype started. Nothing surprises me anymore to be honest.

[Quantess]

10. Nah, there's no way his death wouldn't be publicized.

Can you imagine if Osama was killed when Bush was president? The pretzeldent would be beating his chest and bragging about it for months.

[TheWraith]

13. I assumed that they never knew.

How would one know the identity of everyone killed by a given bomb, unless you DNA tested every chunk of person at every bomb site all over Afghanistan and Pakistan? It would be really easy for someone to die and disappear out there. Hell, look at famous missing persons cases: we've still never conclusively proven where Amelia Earhart went down despite decades of searching. One body in the mountains is almost as good as one plane in the ocean.

[seabeyond]

12. damn, i admire you so. me.... i listened to what people said. wouldnt have been surprised

but not committed to the position either.

[Kahuna]

14. I was right. I said all along that Musharref knew where he was and

was protecting him. I went even further and said that buchco knew that Musharref was protecting him, and used that to their advantage whenever they wanted osama to issue a message to America like in two days before the '04 election.

[Liberal_in_LA]

16. I thought he was dead also

[starroute]

17. But now I want to know about the supposed bin Laden tapes

A number of those were suspicious even aside from the question of whether bin Laden was still alive or not. There was the "fat bin Laden" one, for example, which was clearly a different person.

I'd like to see someone reliable go over the question again.

[lame54]

19. great - now have beer

[TheWraith]

20. I'll take wine, actually. But thanks. nt

[KoKo]

22. We don't know for sure if this is the real Osama...but it really doesn't matter at this point

does it? The fact is that Obama says that he caught him, has the DNA, and the Photo/Face Recognition and he will release the buriel video and other video if we pressure him.

Whatever the truth is...Obama has a chance to change course with what he says has been accomplished and whether this is real or not..if it get's these "wars" finished and we turn our resources back to Jobs and American Economy and away from TERRA, TERRA, TERRA night and day...then it's a good thing to have this chance.

I was one of those Osama is "long dead" believers because of how he was used by Bush for propaganda while he invaded Iraq for 9/11 ...but used Osama as the Boogieman.

It doesn't matter if it's real or not...Obama gets some good UPTICK on this news. Let's hope he uses it for Good and doesn't fall into the NeoCon trap of "On to IRAN!" (NeoCons were all over media today warning of Iran as our next problem ...now that Bin Laden has been eliminated)

[eridani]

23. I second that. I still believe that post 2004 videos and tapes have been fakes for a number--

--of very good reasons, but it looks like there are lots of other possible reasons for not wanting to engage in a lot of public communication besides being dead.

I actually sent Robert Fisk links explaining how the bin Laden comments on current events had been inserted into older videos, and the WaPo article on voice morphing. He thanked me for the information, but maintained that according to a number of his sources, bin Laden was alive. Looks like his sources were right.

[KoKo]

27. Thanks for that news about what Fisk said..

I, too thought the Osama Videos were fake. Remember the Fat Obama and the Thin Obama and how they always popped up at such convenient times when there was breaking news against "The Chimp?"

We also know that Bush Family and Bin Laden Family go way, way back.

I didn't realize Fisk believed that Osama was till alive. I've read many of his columns in the past but missed those. If Fisk says he's alive then I have to believe it. But, I still wonder if the CIA wasn't doctoring a few of those Osama tapes...

I don't think we know all of it and more will come out. But, as I said above..Our President has a chance to use this for GOOD Purposes... I hope he doesn't flag out or let the NeoCons drag him further into more war because this will be viewed by so many as a success.

[eridani]

39. I'm pretty ;sure the CIA or other agencies was doctoring the tapes

Bin Laden evidently thought that he'd extend his lifespan some by not communicating directly with the rest of the world after 2004--and he was probably right. Still, he left behind quite a large number of voice prints for his enemies (and very likely even his friends) to play with.

[undeterred]

25. Well, didn't they also say he had really bad kidney disease?

I thought he was really ill and not expected to live long ten years ago.

[ScreamingMeemie]

26. Really. I really thought he had died somewhere, at some point, of

the results of crap kidneys.

[KoKo]

28. Seriously there were some very good verfied articles about his dialysis because of his kidney diseas

way back. I don't remember the sites but most of us found the reports seemed from credible people, and the videos were so fake, along with Bush not ever seeming to find him that reasonable people would assume he was already killed by Bush or dead from kidney disease since we invaded Iraq and then increased the war in Afghanistan. Osama didn't seem relevant when even Bush II said he wasn't.

[undeterred]

29. And how long can you last without a kidney transplant

or some pretty good medical care if you need dialysis 3 or 4 times a week and you are in hiding? It just didn't seem feasible. But maybe that whole story was wrong.

[KoKo]

33. Yes...he couldn't have lasted this long on dialysis. n/t

[Turborama]

31. Well done. I'm waiting to talk to my brother about this and will ask him if he'll admit he was wrong

Even if he does, I don't think it'll stop him from being a 'truther'.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

32. I always said he was hiding in a ramshackle mansion somewhere in Abbottabad

with no phones or Internet & 50-foot walls.
OK, I was wrong on the walls.

[babylonsister]

42. lol!

:thumbsup:

[Kablooie]

34. I too believed so. I thought that's why Bush closed the CIA BinLaden team.

I now know that he closed it simply because he didn't want, or expect to ever catch OBL.

What a pitiful goon.

Or as the Freepers say: "What a class act he was."

[Withywindle]

35. I thought so too.

I thought he'd probably died years ago, of natural causes (his kidney disease, most likely), and we'd never know one way or the other, and his name was allowed to drop out of the media because it would have been so embarrassingly anticlimactic.

[Prophet 451]

36. K&R for guts

Takes some nerve to publically admit you were wrong, I applaud that.

[TheKentuckian]

37. I've not thought it matters much for some years.

That is still a concern.

[krispos42]

38. I halfway thought he was dead, too

My mom works for a kidney-dialysis unit. If a person doesn't get dialyzed, they're dead in like 4 days. Three hours a day, every other day. The machines have to be kept super-clean to avoid infection.

I figured either the supply chain for the machine would have broken down at some point long enough for a fatal buildup of toxins, or he would have gotten a really nasty infection and died. Quiet burial or incineration, and he just fades away into the mists of history.


I also thought that we might have blown up a meeting or something and unknowingly turned him to chunky salsa with a guided missile. We could have spend decades looking for a guy we blew to smithereens back in 2005 or something.

[JTFrog]

41. Folks also thought he was hiding out in some barren dusty cave.

He was living in a what equates to a mansion. Not hard to believe that with his money he could secure access to dialysis.

:shrug:

[mmonk]

43. I believed him to be dead based on the Bhutto/Frost interview.

We'll see when the US offers up the proof. But in the long run, it doesn't matter. The US is a different country now. I see it remaining fear based and propaganda based.

[n2doc]

44. same here n/t

[NNN0LHI]

45. Me too. I thought he was in Saudi Arabia

[moodforaday]

46. What evidence did you have

that suggested he had been dead?

What evidence do you now have that suggests otherwise?

What are the relative merits of the previous evidence to the one you now have?

I don't think we can know one way or another. All we know is that the OBL bogeyman card has been played to death, made irrelevant by the passage of time, and so if has finally been put to rest. OBL has certainly served his paymasters well, even in death.

[badgerpup]

47. Me too...

I thought he'd been in the daisy farmin' business for years.

Before Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, she'd made a statement to that effect, that bin Laden was dead, and I thought she'd be in a position to have that info. I believed it...but I did not celebrate, and I am not celebrating now.

Relived, yes. This time there's proof.

Now, can we please get the hell outta Dodge and pay some attention to another country that could stand a bit of nation-building...like AMERICA?

[phleshdef]

48. Well, what were you suppose to think when the last President pretty much gave up on finding him?

Thinking he might be dead was a rationalization of that fact, at least on the part of some. When Bush decided to stop looking for him and started disbanding groups assigned to that task, one had to wonder if the guy was just dead.

[Blue Owl]

49. He existed in stock footage

I find it interesting and slightly curious that no 'outside' party ever filmed Bin Laden.

The only time we ever saw Bin Laden was in his tapes or the same recycled stock footage. A shadowy life followed by a shadowy death.

For that reason, the death photo may have some purpose.

[deaniac21]

50. He will aways live on in our hearts, though.

[Pacifist Patriot]

51. I figured he was dead eons ago as well.

I don't think there is any shame in that assumption. He was rumoured to be in poor health and almost a decade has passed. If the reports of kidney disease are true, it really is remarkable. I think people can be forgiven for being surprised he survived as long as he did.

[xiamiam]

52. lotsa folks wrong..myself included..over this last decade ive become quite cynical

i know only one thing for sure...nothing is as it appears