|
Let's assume that Caribou Barbie comes to the same conclusion that Hucksterbee did, and just decides to keep on making money, and stays out of the 2012 race, possibly turning into a kingmaker by endorsing one of the others at a critical junction in the Rethug nomination process, delivering her fundie voters.
If so, the only "known" Repuke candidates that have a shot at the nomination are Romney and Gingrich. Both are unacceptable to the fundies, and both have problems with the other parts of the Republicon base, specifically relating to flip-flopping on various core issues. If one of them doesn't get it, then the nominee will be a "fresh face", Daniels, Pawlenty, Huntsman, etc.
Whenever our side has taken back the White House from the other party for the last fifty-one years, it has been with a "fresh face". You can argue that JFK was a known quantity in 1960, because of his prominent role at the 1956 convention, but two things clearly exist in his case. First, he hadn't been involved in politics for the better part of twenty years (he had only run for Congress when he came back from WWII), and second, it might have been impossible to have been overexposed in the late 1950's, when a minority of households had a television set.
Clearly, Presidents Carter, Clinton, and Obama were virtual unknowns two years before their respective first Election Days. On the other hand, every time the Rethugs run a new candidate for the top job, he's a known quantity. Going backwards through time, McCain, Bush the Younger, Dole, Bush the Elder, Reagan, and Nixon (twice) were all national figures well before the primaries started. The only one I don't remember was Goldwater, I was too young to remember anything before I knew he was the 1964 GOP nominee.
Yes, we've had known candidates, too, Kerry, Gore, and Mondale come immediately to mind. But I have to admit, it's a bit scary to realize that the American people seem to respond better to a "fresh face" (at least when it's on our side), and the chances of the Republicons having one on their ticket next year has seldom been greater.
|