Year Four of the Silent Depression: 'the Western industrial world is crumbling'

[marmar]

from Dissent Magazine:




Year Four of the Silent Depression
Luther Carpenter - May 25, 2011


AS OF May 2011, governmental (and intergovernmental) institutions have prevented a 1930s-style depression. They’ve saved the financial system. Nonetheless, the Western industrial world is crumbling.

I call our situation a silent depression, analogous to the silent depression of 1974–84, which French economists called la crise. During la crise, there was massive deindustrialization in the heavy industries that had formed the postwar mode of production, and satiation where there had been rapid growth in the consumer durables that were its mode of consumption. La crise became normal, a second stage of postwar capitalism. New leading industries developed—information technology, speculative finance—and with them a new mode of consumption based on debt and income inequality. That stage of capitalism worked for a while, then turned desperate after 2000. High technology became less revolutionary, and high finance lurched from bubble to bubble; the rich couldn’t eat up all that the economy could produce. That stage came to an end in 2007–8.

Like its predecessor, the current silent depression means that not enough jobs are created to provide full employment. Since over two-thirds of workers in OECD countries are employed in the service sector (a figure even higher in countries like the United States and France), that’s where jobs have been destroyed. That sector isn’t going to pull us back to full employment. Most of the new jobs created in it and other sectors are part-time and precarious. To get us out of this mess and into a new stage of capitalist accumulation, new modes of production and consumption must be constructed out of new and recycled materials.

Most of my friends in France and the United States don’t say this, thought not because they aren’t hurting. Those who are self-employed (journalists, translators) have lost clients. Salaried workers have lost their jobs, or are at risk of losing their jobs. Many have children who are having difficulty finding a place in society, or they experience the effects of cutbacks in medical care and the annoyance of trying to talk to insurers or providers of what once were growing service industries. But they stop short of saying that the survival of their societies is seriously threatened. ............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=492

[ixion]

1. Wall St is doing great, Main St. is in depression. Hence the status-quo narrative of 'recovery'

despite the fact that it's actually a precursor to a massive depression just a ways down the path.

[socialist_n_TN]

13. Well yeah. Here's a novel idea. Instead of government

investment in the Wall Street banks, to the tune of a trillion or so dollars along with 0% loans for same, why doesn't the government invest the taxpayer's money in infrastructure repairs and development of mass transit and green energy technologies? EVEN IF THE PAYOFF IS DELAYED FOR A COUPLE OF DECADES.

Yeah it would raise the debt, but tax receipts would rise (more people are working AND, unlike the rich, actually PAYING their taxes) and it would get more money into the economy thereby raising DEMAND which would help the REST of the economy.

That way the rich wouldn't HAVE to give us poor proles a job. :sarcasm: Demand could achieve that goal.

Too much socialism I guess.

[defendandprotect]

19. Because the elites aren't interested in building, they're interested in profit by destruction....

Hard to believe but true!

[socialist_n_TN]

26. Well profit by destruction is MORE profitable that's true

nm

[raccoon]

2. K&R. nt

[dkf]

3. Not enough demand and not enough jobs.

Ugh

[dixiegrrrrl]

4. Thanks for the link to that site, marmar.

Looks very interesting, I had not heard of it before.

:hi:

[Bragi]

7. Ditto /nt

[RKP5637]

5. K&R n/t

[Poll_Blind]

6. Recommended.

PB

[Mimosa]

8. Politicians & corporations colluded outsource to where labour costs were cheap

How could they not have predicted what would happen when there are no steady goodpaying jobs available? People can't build an economy on service sector jobs like delivering pizzas.

[defendandprotect]

24. Capitalism ... "harvesting slave labor all over the world" -- breaking the middle class here ...

which they no longer need given the end to USSR/communism "threat" --

We had no "peace dividend" -- in fact W doubled the MIC budget --

but they sure had a labor/profit dividend!

[Starry Messenger]

9. k&r

[pampango]

10. Nice, positive take on the economic and social project of the French Socialist Party (PS), but it

needs more.

That is why the economic and social project of the French Socialist Party (PS) for the 2012 elections is so interesting. It’s premise is that the economy needs to be straightened out, and it proposes a new model for development—a model that aims for growth, innovation, and durability. This isn’t the kind of growth the United States underwent in the last stage of capitalism: starter mansions and SUVs, fueled by consumer debt. It’s not growth driven by massive increases in consumption, directly or indirectly, like what France tried from 1974 to 1976, after which the need to protect its currency forced leaders to be “fiscally responsible.” Even in those years, government deficits played a supporting rather than lead role in public discourse. Now the PS doesn’t oppose the center-right’s targets for deficit reduction. But it maintains that deficits are inevitable and must support modest growth, which is needed to cut into mass unemployment. They propose to raise potential growth of GDP from 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent a year—modest and balanced growth, not growth on steroids.

The hallmark of the PS’s projet is investment, directed into the sectors that can lead to an ecologically sustainable future, like energy. France is already (though belatedly) investing somewhat in generating electricity from wind and from solar panels. The French are also looking to second-generation biofuels (not ethanol). These industries were keys to the 2007 national conference in France on sustainable development, partly implemented and opposed by most of the corporate sector and the EU. The big catch, of course, is nuclear energy. France is a world leader in nuclear energy construction, which generates most of its electricity, but the PS’s potential allies among the Greens are either cool to or virulently against nuclear energy. So the program straddles the issue; you can’t get out of the already-built plants but shouldn’t build more, and in addition to finding new sources of energy you have to conserve it (which will require investment, too).

AS YOU can see, the PS projet tries to fry two fish in the same fryer: development and social justice. Social justice goes hand in hand with getting France out of the silent depression and into a new mode of production and consumption, following a stage of capitalism that has generated immense inequalities of income and status: good times for the rich, crumbs for working people; too much money in the wrong places, not enough money in the right people’s hands; hyperactivity for those who printed money, psychological depression for the rest. The silent depression has compounded these inequalities.

PEOPLE ARE mad and frustrated. ... The PS has no place for that anger. Where is it going? To the far-right National Front. Not many working people are National Front militants, but the latest opinion polls suggest that 36 percent of manual workers (ouvriers and ouvrieres) would vote for the FN in the first round of the 2012 elections. (The same poll, taken before the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, indicated that 17 percent would have supported the once-presumed PS candidate, and 15 percent Sarkozy.) Here the PS’s modesty is glaringly inadequate. They have to offer more to the ouvriers on the minimum wage, preventing exploitation, and rebuilding the old working-class suburbs. If they don’t rile people up, the anger will continue to turn inward, becoming depression—the psychological dimension of the silent depression.

[Tuesday Afternoon]

11. k to the r

[defendandprotect]

12. "The Great Recession" continues on... and Obama working on new trade agreements w/Korea, Colombia!

[pampango]

14. South Korea's per capita income and income equality are close to Europe's.

EU: PPP-$30,390; Gini-31
South Korea: PPP-$30,200; Gini-31.4
United States: ppp-$47,280; Gini-45

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_South_Korea

[defendandprotect]

18. Well, guess we'll be sending our kids to Korea and Colombia to work?

Wasn't this the trade agreement W had been working on -- ?

[pampango]

20. Oh, I think we can compete with any country where the standard of living

is equal to ours. Their much more equitable distribution of income would indicate that their middle and working classes are better off than ours.

We don't create jobs here and a better distribution of income and assets by building walls and tariffs, but by tearing them down. Just ask the Europeans (and FDR for that matter who worked to dismantle the tariffs that Smoot and Hawley (repubs, of course) are infamous for, then created the GATT to prevent their return after WWII.)

[defendandprotect]

22. These new Obama trade agreeemtns will suck more jobs out of US --

capitalism isn't about competitition -- it's about killing the competition!

Rather, we need to return to tariffs -- and we should be fighting Obama on this!

[bvar22]

25. ?

Ross was Right!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rkgx1C_S6ls&feature=player_embedded

[defendandprotect]

32. Absolutely -- that's all these agreements are about --sucking jobs out, destroying unions ....

was listening to Thom Hartmann this afternoon/? The fill in guy was a well known

guy I can't think of at the moment -- and he and his guest were making clear that

once they take down the teachers, firefighters -- etal -- educated people making

good salaries -- those people go thru the unemployment mill -- some of them will

lose houses, go into bankruptcy -- and many will become available again at lower

salaries! I find Obama's onslaught on teachers and their unions just shocking,

but it doesn't seem to disturb too many here!

[Romulox]

38. "Police break up strike at Hyundai supplier"

Undoubtedly, this is the sort of "equal standard of living" the poster has in mind--all workers equally under the jackboot of riot police.

About 3,000 riot police were deployed to dispel 500 striking workers at Yoosung’s main plant in Asan, 80km south of Seoul, who started the occupation last week. There were no big clashes but police detained union leaders to question them over their illegal industrial action, according to Yonhap News agency.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/61c4b7d4-85ef-11e0-be9b-00144feabdc0.html

[KitSileya]

15. Now, now, you must remember to use the words right.

Per definition, the US is not in a recession, and that is the most important thing, don't you know. :sarcasm:

[defendandprotect]

16. In fact....

back about last August, an article popped up on Yahoo where Obama was referring

to it as a "Depression." I picked up the article to post here at DU, but didn't

do it right away -- and when I went back to it, "depression" had been scrubbed

and "recession" substituted!

One or more members of Congress have seemed more ready as well to call it a

depression -- finally settling on "The Great Recession" -- !!

[defendandprotect]

17. dupe

back about last August, an article popped up on Yahoo where Obama was referring

to it as a "Depression." I picked up the article to post here at DU, but didn't

do it right away -- and when I went back to it, "depression" had been scrubbed

and "recession" substituted!

One or more members of Congress have seemed more ready as well to call it a

depression -- finally settling on "The Great Recession" -- !!

[KitSileya]

21. I agree with you, but it seems that certain posters her on DU

are more worried about using the words right than what is actually happening to the majority of not only Americans, but most of the world. A whole thread was practically hijacked by one of them when the OP tried to juxtapose the fact that 40 million Americans are on foodstamps but technically the economy is soaring again.

The Great Recession should definitely be used again and again, until it does cement itself in the minds of the majority. This is not a healthy economy, and people are suffering - and there's no end in sight for normal people (i.e., 98% of Americans.)

[defendandprotect]

23. 3 million homeless and 40 million on food stamps sounds like a Depression to me!!

And agree that there are many DU'ers who seem to prefer to not see economic

reality -- especially the huge numbers still unemployed and underemployed.

Haven't heard Bernie Sanders on that one lately -- but think about 6 months

ago it was still around 17% --

And how often do we see articles or threads here challenging the wars --

80% of the public want an end to the wars --

or challenging what Obama did on health care -- 76% of Americans and more wanted

MEDICARE FOR ALL --

Messages couldn't be clearer from both sides -- public wants SS, Medicare, and an end to wars.

Politicians give us the opposite!!

The American public needs its BS meters turned up waaaay higher --

[KoKo]

33. Everyone thought Michelle and Barack dressed beautifully and were a credit to the US

in the last week on their tour to get to the "G-8 Summit." The Queen was gracious and so was Prime Minister Cameron. The events were beautiful Photo Ops...MEANWHILE ...BACK IN THE USA: "BiBi" was getting Huge applause and over two dozen standing ovations in our Congress made up of both Dems and Repugs. (reports are that a protester was dragged out and put into custody)

Also the "Pete Petersen Foundation" hosted a speech by former President Clinton where he addressed that there "might need to be" some tinkering with Medicare and a back hall meeting with Rep. Paul Ryan caught on camera showed that former President Clinton wants Paul Ryan to "call him" so they can discuss views more thoroughly than in a "back hall."

This morning, (overseas time)President Obama met with Russia's Premier to talk about the "Missile Shield" that would protect America from Nukes sent by Iran and North Korea and the talks were reported as "cold shoulder" from Russian PM and the photo op showed our President as a bit (in body language) "uncomfortable."

Meanwhile back here in the USA...residents of Alabama, Joplin, Missouri and other places in the US Interior are suffering from the dreadful series of tornadoes ripping through...with towns devastated and folks trying to deal with trauma that looks like bomb zones and their whole lives gone in just a few minutes. I hear the President will tour on Sunday.

I have no idea what to think of all of this, anymore.

K&R to your Post....Nothing left to do but "K&R...K&R...K&R.." to the DU'ers who still keep trying...

:kick:

[leftstreet]

27. K&R

[femrap]

28. K and R

I like the term, 'The Silent Depression.'

The Empire is dying...

And as the bumper sticker says: END WORLD HUNGER. EAT THE RICH.

[russspeakeasy]

29. Eat the rich ? You'll get gout..

[4dsc]

30. Conservative economics is described well here

Thanks for the article. I'm going to pass it on.

[Boojatta]

31. Proofreading work is created, but not enough proofreading jobs are created.

Most of my friends in France and the United States don’t say this, thought not because they aren’t hurting.

It’s premise is that the economy needs to be straightened out, and it proposes a new model for development—a model that aims for growth, innovation, and durability.

[slay]

34. K&R

a wake-up call and warning we best heed - and one i'm quite sure we won't. :(

[NNN0LHI]

35. Had some goof ball complaining about no jobs for his kids yesterday

I just glanced over at the two imported cars in his driveway and didn't say anything.

Didn't need to say anything.

Don

[DeSwiss]

36. But aren't capitalist financial systems supposed to make loans?

So if it was "saved" where are the loans?

- Maybe we should have saved the borrowers first. Or, instead.......

K&R

[truedelphi]

37. In my neck of the woods, the only businesses flourishing are

Thrift shops and Medical Marijuana dispensaries.

Our internet business that publishes books does somewhat well, largely because of customers in China.
(Though the first thing the Dem majority Congress did in 2007 was to tighten the postal rates for small companies, while allowing Time/Warner a huge discount.)

The average American is so screwn.

And until we get people in Congress from the Middle Class, who do not support only Big Oil, Big Finance and the MIC, that is probably how it will be.

[fascisthunter]

39. Blame should be laid at the feet of politicians and Wall Street itself

they are all TRAITORS to "We the People"

[SoCalDem]

40. Go to any mall and look at the shops there

How on earth will jobs like that "save us"..

the merchandise they sell is made outside the US (usually for shit wages in some 3rd world sweatshop)

most of the stuff sold there is stuff that people can easily do without.

employees are usually part time/no benefits workers

now go across the street and look at the fast food places & chain restaurants...same workers, just with uniforms & food-service gloves

An economy as large as ours does have pockets of hope here and there, but there are millions of people, who in another time, would have had well paid jobs with benefits...jobs that may not have been "clean", but they could have supported a whole family.

We cannot "service" our way out of the doldrums.