http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/wisconsin-looks-good-for-obama.htmlGingrich's numbers may be particularly bad in Wisconsin because of his recent spat with Paul Ryan who's an absolutely adored figure with GOP voters in the state. 77% have a favorable opinion of him to 12% with a negative one. Ryan would actually poll the strongest of the Republicans we tested against Obama in the state too, trailing the President by a 50-43 margin, 5 points closer than Romney.
Despite his comparatively decent numbers against Obama, Ryan's image in the state has gone in the wrong direction as his national profile has increased over the course of the last six months. When we polled on Ryan in December his favorability was a positive 38/30 spread. Now it's a negative 41/46 spread. That's a 13 point net shift in the wrong direction for him over the last five months. He's up up 10 points with Republicans from +55 (61/6) to +65 (77/12). But that's more than outweighed by his being down 34 points with Democrats from -35 (16/51) to -69 (10/79). And he's down 9 points with independents from +10 (39/29) to +1 (43/42). Ryan's prudent not to run for the state's open seat given his decline in popularity on the home front.
Plenty of time for it to change, but Wisconsin's looking like a solid Obama state in 2012 for now.