US created 103,000 jobs in December. Unemployment U-3 falls to 9.4%

[Statistical]

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 103,000 in December.
Employment rose in leisure and hospitality and in health care but
changed little in other major industries. Since December 2009, total
payroll employment has increased by 1.1 million, or an average of
94,000 per month. (See table B-1.)

Employment in leisure and hospitality increased by 47,000 in December.
Within the industry, job gains continued in food services and drinking
places (+25,000). Since a recent low in December 2009, the food services
industry has added 188,000 jobs.

In December, health care employment continued to expand, with a gain
of 36,000. Over the month, job gains continued in ambulatory services
(+21,000), hospitals (+8,000), and nursing and residential care facili-
ties (+7,000).

Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help
services continued to trend up in December (+16,000) and has risen by
495,000 since a recent low in September 2009.

Employment in retail trade changed little in December (+12,000). A
job gain in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000) offset a loss
in health and personal care stores (-8,000). Employment in most other
service-providing industries changed little over the month.

In the goods-producing sector, mining employment continued to trend
up in December, reflecting a job gain in support activities for mining
(+5,000).


Manufacturing employment changed little over the month (+10,000). Fol-
lowing job growth earlier in 2010, employment has been relatively flat,
on net, since May. Construction employment also was little changed overall
in December (-16,000). Within construction, there were job losses in heavy
and civil engineering (-13,000) and in residential building (-6,000).

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
held at 34.3 hours in December. The manufacturing workweek for all
employees declined by 0.1 hour to 40.2 hours, while factory overtime
remained at 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and non-
supervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1
hour to 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm
payrolls increased by 3 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $22.78. Over the past 12
months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent. In December,
average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory em-
ployees rose by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $19.21. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised
from +172,000 to +210,000, and the change for November was revised
from +39,000 to +71,000.

---------------------------------
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Not enough jobs to break even, so true unemployment is up.

We need 150,000 new jobs each month to break even due to population growth. So the unemployment number went down only because of so many more discouraged workers.

[Statistical]

5. Actually the 150K is a yardstick not an exact science.

The number is in constant flux. Of course real statistics is hard and simplistic sound bites like 150K get a lot of airtime so I don't blame you.

If you look at BLS data the "Civilian labor force" is the self described portion of the population who is able and willing to work. It excludes military, students, retirees, disabled (to the point of being unable to work), inmates, etc.

Essentially in a perfect world there would be a job for everyone in the CLF. Everyone in the CLF would be working if given the option.

Civilian Labor Force:
Dec 2009 - 153,172,000
Dec 2010 - 153,690,000

Net gain: 518,000
Thus due to demographics the labor force (employed and unemployed) did expand but only by roughly half a million persons not 1.8 million the "150K per month" soundbite would indicate.

Number of jobs increased by 1.1 million so one could consider it a NET improvement of 600K (due to size of potential labor force expanding by 500K).

Not disagreeing we need more jobs more like 200K-300K a month but this is a rather strong report.

[MannyGoldstein]

7. Do you have a link?

I see your point, but it seems weird that the number economists use is off by 2x-3x.

[Statistical]

8. Well it isn't the number used by economists. It is the number used by talking heads.

The CLF data for previous year is in the link at the OP. Near the bottom.

[pinqy]

17. minor corrections

If you look at BLS data the "Civilian labor force" is the self described portion of the population who is able and willing to work. It excludes military, students, retirees, disabled (to the point of being unable to work), inmates, etc.

Children under 16, military, prisoners, and people in mental intstitutes or other long-term care are not in the population. The Labor Force is Unemployed plus Employed (NOT all those able and willing to work, just those working or actively looking for work.

Not in the labor force (but in the population) are those who did not work and are not looking for work: retirees, full-time students, stay-at-home spouses, etc. Many not in the labor force do describe themselves as willing and able to work and have looked for work in the previous 12 months (the Marginally Attached) but they did not look for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey and so can't be considered as unemployed because they're not actually participating in the labor market(currently that number is 2,609,000).

[Statistical]

20. Good clarification I spoke too casually.

However I would say if someone didn't look for a job in last 4 weeks they aren't really ready and willing to work. Nobody is saying spend all day every day searching but making a single inquiry per month is a rather low hurdle to be included in the "civilian labor force".

[Systematic Chaos]

2. And all those part time retail holiday jobs just vanished.

So who gives a fig?

[Statistical]

6. BLS data is seasonally adjusted.

One way to look at it is number of jobs increased by 103K more than the average december.

Still only 18K of the 103K net jobs were retail related.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

[katnapped]

3. But but but...

Didn't ADP say there were like 500,000 jobs created?

Me thinks BLS hates America! :sarcasm:

[NNN0LHI]

4. Recommended

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

9. Leisure and Hospitality economy

Arts, entertainment, and recreation
Food services and drinking places
Hotels and other accommodations

We are morphing into The U.S. of Las Vegas.

[LuckyTheDog]

10. Hmmm...

The private sector is hiring and the government sector is shedding jobs. Tax rates are lower than they were in 2008.

What is the Tea Party mad about again?

Oh, right ... The president is still black.

[FrancisTreptoe]

13. And apparently a secret muslim terrorist fist jabber

[ProSense]

11. The private sector added

113,000 jobs.

The US economy added 103,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate dropped to 9.4%. The growth came from gains in the private sector, with 113,000 jobs added. The report is much lower than the 297,000 count that came out earlier this week from ADP.

link

Robert Reich in September: ...we need 125,000 net new jobs a month just to keep up with the growth of the population and the potential workforce.

[EstimatedProphet]

12. See? Tax cuts for the rich create jobs!

[walldude]

14. 9.4%.. yeah right.. BE nice if at some point they showed that actual

number of unemployed. Adding in the underemployed, the 99ers, the sole contractors who can't file for unemployment you get a much bigger number..

I can only find a link for as recent as October..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-thornton/the-real-unemployment-rat_b_773810.html

[Statistical]

16. They show the number of unemployed every single month since 1930.

Table B in the link above (OP).

Unemployed (U-3)
December 2010: 14,485,000
November 2010: 15,041,000
December 2009: 15,212,000


Benefits has nothing to do with unemployed (U-3, U-6, etc). Someone with no benefits is still unemployed thus 99ers, contractors, even someone who punched their boss in the mouth and was fired for cause are included in unemployed).

[dmallind]

19. The survey cares not one whit for your meaningless criteria.

This phone survey does not even ask if you have run out of benefits. It only asks if you have a job, with the hours/permanency you desire if so, and whether you are actively seeking one if not. You could be a "399er" and if you are looking for work currently the survey will count you as unemployed. The much bigger numbers btw are shown that include underemployed etc. They are posted with equal prominence by the BLS even. The media have focused on the same U3 rate for decades good or bad. No measure per se is more "actual" than any other as all are exrtrapolated from surveys and are all released as usweful comparators only to and among themselves.

[MadHound]

15. Why do I smell numbers cooking?

The previous two months get a substantial boost, and now, even though the jobs added weren't enough to keep up with growth in the labor force, somehow the U3 dropped .4%.

Smells like the books are being cooked to me.

Meanwhile, the U6 number, a much better look at the overall employment picture, is still up over last year at this time.

<http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm>

[Statistical]

18. Actually no it is down compared to last year (per the link you provided)

U-6
December 2009: 17.2%
December 2010: 16.7%

[pinqy]

23. Is it because you're paranoid?

Jobs added are from a completely different survey which only measures payroll employment for non-farm business that contribute to Unemployment Insurance. Overall employment, including agriculture, the self employed, and domestic workers went up 297,000. Unemployment dropped 556,000 (2,648,000 unemployed found jobs, 3,097,000 stopped looking, 2,000 left the population, and 5,190,000 became unemployed... Labor force flows)

So the UE rate is Unemployed divided by the Labor Force. Both dropped, but Unemployment dropped by more, so the rate went down.

The U-6 also went down from Nov-Dec, partly because of a decline in the number of people part time for economic reasons.

[dmallind]

21. Those lying bastards always revise gains down.....oh wait a minute...ermmm..NT

[Statistical]

22. +1. LOL. That is how the conspiracy goes. Top 4 list of BLS myths

Myth: December doesn't matter because it is all holiday jobs.
Reality: Data is seasonally adjusted to make each month comparable. Also only 18K of 103K net jobs were retail in December

Myth: They are stopping benefits for 99ers because it makes unemployment go down
Reality: Benefits has nothing to do with employment & unemployment for BLS statistics. What matters is are you working, do you want to work, are you able to work, and (for U-3) have you looked in last 4 months.

Myth: The unemployment numbers don't reflects terminated part time, contract, or fire for cause workers because they can't get benefits.
Reality: False. As related to the above myth. Getting or not getting benefits has nothing to do with U-3 to U-6.

Myth: The numbers are always faked and then revised downward when nobody is watching
Reality: False. The revised numbers are always included in the next months reports and there is no long term bias up or down to the revisions.

Of course these same 4 myths will be repeated again in Febuary, and March, and April ....

[walldude]

24. Yes it's all a big conspiracy to embarrass Obama

Gimme a fucking break. What is more likely, that there is a huge conspiracy to embarrass Obama or that they are fudging the numbers so they don't look so bad?

[Statistical]

25. LOL.

So why didn't the fudge the numbers when they did look bad? Like when we had 3 months of job gains and then a month of job losses why not just fudge that to 4 months of gains?

BLS has been doing this a long time. Many of the people employed there were hired/appointed under Bush, hell some were even hired under Bush senior.

Many are Republicans and have no interest in making Obama look good.

Statisticians are more interested in the numbers themselves. Getting better numbers, reducing error, improving confidence, gleaning information from the information.

[Safetykitten]

26. From Calculated Risk.

This was a mixed report.

The best news was the decline in the unemployment rate to 9.4% from 9.8% in November. However this was partially because the participation rate declined to 64.3% - a new cycle low, and the lowest level since the early '80s. Note: This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force (here is the graph in the galleries of the participation rate).

The 103,000 payroll jobs added was below expectations of 140,000 jobs, however payroll for November was revised up 70,000 and the October payroll was revised up 38,000.

The increase in the long term unemployed, and the high level of part time workers for economic reasons are ongoing concerns. The average workweek was steady at 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings ticked up 3 cents.

According to the BLS, there are 6.441 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was up from 6.328 million in November. It appeared the number of long term unemployed had peaked, however the increases over the last three months are very concerning.