If the OMB Is Right About Unemployment in 2012, the Obama Re-election Campaign Is Doomed

[Better Believe It]

If the OMB Is Right About Unemployment Obama Campaign Is DOA
By: Jon Walker
September 1, 2011

The White House Office of Management and Budget recently published its Mid-Session Review based on the most recent economic data. The MSR shows OMB’s economic growth outlook moving steadily downward from the earlier February report, and the numbers are a red flag for the economy and the President’s re-election.

As a result of recent slower growth in the first two quarters, the OMB’s alternative forecast projects unemployment will remain at 9 percent in 2012. The alternative forecast is based on slightly lower GDP growth rates than those assumed for the base MSR forecast. OMB’s base MSR forecast predicts unemployment will drop to 8.3 percent during 2012.

The alternative forecast, shown in Table 4, is an update of the projection based on information available through late August Since June, there have been significant changes to the economic outlook, including the annual revision of the NIP A which showed a large downward adjustment in growth in the first quarter, a subsequent downward revision of growth in the second quarter, and other economic indicators suggesting slower growth than originally projected in the second half.

If the OMB alternative forecast turns out to be correct and unemployment remains at roughly 9 percent going into November 2012, the Obama re-election campaign is doomed. There is no way to spin extremely slow growth and persistent and unacceptably high unemployment.

http://elections.firedoglake.com/2011/09/01/if-the-omb-is-right-about-unemployement-obama-campaign-is-doa/

[ixion]

1. k/r

[MineralMan]

2. I don't think so. But, hey...whatever floats your boat.

:shrug:

[NC_Nurse]

3. The Repub clown car of candidates may save him.

[Fresh_Start]

5. +1

and hopefully we will help the clown car

[Creideiki]

4. If the campaign messages like it did in 2008, Obama will win.

If the campaign messages like it has from 2009 to present, Obama will lose. Badly.

It's really about messaging. There are plenty of soft spots to attack the Republicans. The problem is that Obama doesn't like attacking conservatives. Just liberals.

[indepat]

6. The grand bargain struck with Repugs assures extremely slow or negative growth, unacceptably high

unemployment, and pinching the budgets of million of seniors, millions who probably will have to do without some of life's essentials in the wake of cuts to social security and Medicare all the while the uber-wealthy and large corporations continue gourging themselves slopping and sucking at the public welfare teat. :patriot:

[treestar]

7. Nothing would make you happier.

[Better Believe It]

8. Personal attacks like the one you just launched are not welcomed on DU

I've seen you do that far too many times against people you disagree with.

You're now on ignore.

President Obama proposing and fighting for a massive and bold jobs program would make me happier.

[treestar]

9. There's no way it will be bold enough for you no matter what it is

And no way it would pass the current House either, but that's apparently irrelevant.

[Fumesucker]

13. Interesting how one's employment status influences their opinion on jobs creation..

Those who have a job are not particularly concerned with creating more jobs, our president and all the Congress have jobs, fairly decently paying ones by most standards.

Those who lack a job feel a sense of urgency that others see as just wanting a pony.

[treestar]

15. No, since no one wants a high unemployment rate

Even those with jobs are not going to like that. It'll make them feel they have to keep their current job or feel in danger of losing it.

But as to what can be done about it, there is genuine disagreement. If people wanted progressive solutions, they shouldn't have elected a teabagger House. If they think laissez-faire is not working, then maybe they should put the Democrats back in power.

Because laissez-faire is what they voted for in 10, and that's what they are getting.

[Fumesucker]

18. Quite a few people are helped by a high unemployment rate..

The more powerful you are and the more money you have the more high unemployment works in your favor.

Who do you think the politicians work for, the drones or the job creators?

The Democrats wasted a golden window of opportunity in 2009 in order to give us an individual mandate for private insurance that many of us hate wholeheartedly for often excellent reasons, I don't think they're going to get it again any time soon, the Republicans are highly motivated and many people who would normally vote for Democrats are dispirited.

Now, you can blame that on the individuals in question but the tactic does nothing to solve the problem.

[treestar]

30. Third paragraph makes no sense

What golden opportunity? Where were the votes to come from?

The mandate could help with employment. Employers will be glad to let go of the provision of health care. it should be split from jobs anyway. That way people won't hang onto jobs they hate just because of health care.

I suppose employers in general think they benefit from high unemployment, but employees outnumber them (and corporations can't vote.)

[Chan790]

23. Anybody who doesn't understand why you vocally propose one anyways....

is probably too dumb to have a valid political opinion.

Not every non-win (compromises are not non-wins, they're surrenders if you're the only one compromising though.) is a defeat and sometimes "losing" by standing ground is better than compromises that doom. {Two lessons this administration needs to learn ASAP.}

*The economy is not improving because the things that were done were too small to make a difference, but having done them because they were all he could get means Obama owns this non-recovery. Sorry, that's a publicly-acknowledged fact; not subject to debate, we've already lost that argument. If he'd stood his ground, we'd still have a non-recovery except John Boehner would own it and Bush would still own the economic collapse.

*You go directly to the American people with things you cannot possibly get passed because it shows that you're trying and it makes the opposition look bad. Americans love political belligerence and being made to feel important when someone is ignoring the opposition to speak to them directly about better times and hope and what they seek to do...unitary executives might be bad politics but they're great fucking political theatre. You hammer the opposition over the head with it relentlessly. "I tried to create jobs, but Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell are only interested in giving tax-breaks to companies that export jobs and blocking any attempt to put America back to work. I'm interested in putting you back to work, America. It's my only priority."

*Compromise once and you look bipartisan, compromise everyday and you're back to being the kid who got his milk money stolen daily.

[Bobbie Jo]

19. +1

Who says there is no jobs program.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Better Believe It]

12. Please refute the article and OMB facts in it .... if you can.

I'm listening.

[Bobbie Jo]

20. Cut/Paste...whatever.

Please stop pretending you've DONE something here.

"I'm listening" :eyes:

[EFerrari]

22. Don't hold your breath. And that's only the official number.

It will likely be more like 15%.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

14. And you're jumping for joy, aren't you!! n/t

[EFerrari]

21. Instead of ten of you posting the same thing, can't one of you post it

to the tenth power?

[QC]

24. Ganging up is an essential part of bullying. n/t

[Bobbie Jo]

27. .

Just wanted to bookmark this post for the perfect example of unintentional irony. :rofl:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. Not a bully. That would be the ODSers who allow their hatred to cloud

their judgement.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

28. Maybe great minds think alike! However, you fail. I am my own person

who thinks her own thoughts! Don't need direction from anyone whether I agree with them or not.

[scheming daemons]

17. It's called setting low expectations so they can be more easily beaten

If you say it will be 9.0, and it ends up being 8.5... then you've "beaten expectations".

[Honeycombe8]

25. It sounds gloomy, all right. But saw "expert" professor on TV, just wrote a book...

about stats of Presidents winning re-election. He said there are actually 13 important categories. The stats are...if a sitting President is good on at least 4 or so of them, that President has always won re-election, EVEN if he's a negative in the economics department, w/high unemployment.

He said that at this time, Obama is good in at least 6 of the categories. The economy isn't one of them.

That could change, of course. It's early.

So...it doesn't look great. But stats say he will probably be re-elected. And don't forget...Obama is great at campaigning. Better at campaigning than governing.

[ThoughtCriminal]

26. Unless the GOP nominates

a Republican.

[dionysus]

31. then you can celebrate.