What ever happened to the Peak Oil issue?

[Renew Deal]

I remember the night I learned about Peak Oil on DU. It seemed like most people on DU didn't know much about it and one post turned everyone on to the issue. That post is here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1196017">Peak Oil - Okay, I'm terrified. The site that post references is gone. :tinfoilhat: People aren't really talking about it anymore. Gas is around $4 a gallon, but there's no serious talk about us running out. Have the "oil wars" taken place? Some will say Libya is about that, but they haven't really continued as hot wars. Is anyone keeping up with this issue or has it gone away?

[gkhouston]

1. They're talking about *tar sands*. If that's not a hint that we're

sucking fumes on the oil supply, I don't know what is.

[Renew Deal]

2. That's partly why I brought this up.

I think some guy named Wayne Madson was often posted on DU.

[Kennah]

3. Peak Oil does not occur when we run out

Running out is a red herring because we're going to have oil for a LONG time.

The issue with Peak Oil is this: At what price we no longer sustain a country that is dependent upon "cheap" gas?

What happens at $4 a gallon? We got a glimpse.

What happens at $6 a gallon? Death of the SUV.

What happens at $8 a gallon? Death of the big airlines.

What happens at $10 a gallon? Age of the EV is birthed.

If 80-90 percent of the population cannot afford to drive at $10 a gallon, the 10-20 percent who can will pay it.

My predictions for $6, $8, and $10 a gallon come from Christopher Steiner's "$20 a Gallon".

[Renew Deal]

4. I agree about when peak oil occurs.

A bunch of years ago the talk was about $4, $5, and $6 gas. Are $6, $8, $10 the numbers people in the know are talking about now?

[Kennah]

7. Steiner talked about $2 increments from a $4 to $20 a gallon

Chapters were $4 (prelude), $6, $8, $10, etc.

Exactly when, no, he wasn't predicting. He was however predicting what would happen at each level.

Full title of the book is "$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better".

I think the Saudis have throttled things because I'm an anal-retentive pinhead who records all gas purchases, and I've been stuck at paying $3.55 a gallon since July 1, and that's the lowest since March.

[Tesha]

12. It is inevitable that gas will rise in cost to $6, $8, $10, etc.

The only questions are "How soon?" and "Will anyone
actually prepare for it?".

In the past, I've argued that we ought to impose
fuel taxes that will fairly-quickly drive the cost
up to those levels because 1) it would force the
shift away from wasteful oil consumption (that SUV
would finally be seen to be the dinosaur that it is)
and 2) we could at least spend those tax dollars
building out the infrastructure that would let our
society survive beyond "the age of oil".

Many DUers don't agree with this, of course. Some
seem to believe that something will be found to
keep gas prices from rising. They're wrong and
it's just a question of when they'll be proven
wrong. Others just want to delay suffering the
pain for as long as possible, even though they
realize the pain is out there and headed towards
us.

Tesha

[jaxx]

5. This site discusses it daily.

http://theoildrum.com/

[lunasun]

6. Shale oil discoveries?

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Oh I mention it every so often

Tar sands is a hint we are on the downward side of the curve.

[global1]

9. Looks To Me Like They Figured Out A Way To Raise The Price Without Using Peak Oil As An Excuse....nt

[Spider Jerusalem]

10. The peak oil issue is still very much an issue

the peak of oil production has probably already happened; oil prices are a reflection of this. People in the States aren't so much aware of actual oil prices because the US news reports the "price of oil" as NYMEX crude (West Texas Intermediate); WTI is decoupled from actual world oil price because there's an excess of oil at the depot in Cushing, Oklahoma (due to more pipelines bringing oil in than there are taking it out to refiners). The current NYMEX crude price is $86 a barrel. For comparison purposes, Arab Light crude is presently at $108 a barrel; Brent is at $114; Louisiana Light Sweet is at $114; Alaska North Slope is at $111; Bonny Light crude is at $117. So the "price of oil" you hear on the US news is misleadingly low and represents an outlier that's not actually connected to the world market price. Continuing oil prices above $100 a barrel are a sign of demand pressure on relatively static supply that shows no real signs of decreasing in the absence of another major recession or depression; the demand from developing countries like China and India in any case will keep prices higher even in the event of a decline in North American and European demand.

The issue of Canadian tar sands should be a signal of peak oil being very much an issue; tar sands oil is expensive to produce, has a low EROEI (energy return on energy input) compared to more traditional crude oils; and is uneconomical to produce (the break-even on tar sands oil is in the range of $80 a barrel). If peak oil weren't the issue it is we wouldn't be having the current discussion about the tar sands oil Gulf pipeline.

[tama]

11. Well past it

now we've entered the long descent. Economy reacts to PO (c. 2005) just as predicted, downwards zig zag, just entering the second deep slope. :)

The question you raise, why so little talk nowadays, is interesting and I've thought about that myself. Those who "know", mostly no longer feel the need to preach, but to continue with their lives. PO is elementary, but even more elementary to keep on living with as little discomfort as possible, is to get rid of the current financial system of bankstercracy (growth dependent pyramid fraud) with as little discomfort as possible. Degrowth on personal level, delearning from consumerism to more sustainable ways of living, gradually. Remembering that we are all in the same boat.