Key constituencies' support for Obama dropping

[Donnachaidh]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/obama-keeps-hitting-record-lows.html

In our national polling for Daily Kos Barack Obama has hit a record low approval rating 3 weeks in a row now. He's gone from 43/53 to 42/53 to now 42/54 in our poll this week.

What might be most noteworthy is this week's poll is how bad Obama's numbers are with a few key and usually dependable Democratic constituencies. He's under water in union households at 44/47. He's also under water with voters under 30 at 45/48. The Northeast tends to a pretty dependable region for Democrats but Obama's under water there at 47/49. Obama's usually been able to hold his ground with female voters but he's under water with them too at 45/49. And even with African Americans his approval rating's down to 76%, about as low as we've ever found it.

I wrote a blog post last week about how Democratic enthusiasm was at a year long low. Now it's at a lower year long low with only 47% of the party's voters 'very excited' about voting this year compared to 58% of Republicans.

There is perhaps one piece of good news for Obama these days and that's the surge of Rick Perry, who our polling suggests is not as strong a general election candidate as Mitt Romney. Perry fared 6 points worse than Romney against Obama in our national poll last week and does 7 points worse on South Carolina numbers we're releasing tomorrow. Obama trails a generic opponent 48-44 on our national poll this week, including 51-37 with independents. He has to hope Perry proves to be something worse than generic. And although Perry's off to a good start with Republicans, Democrats and independents don't think much of him. So that's possible.

[highplainsdem]

1. Expect this to worsen after the WH decision to overrule the EPA. Especially with voters under 30.

http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/677-e2-wire/177607-obama-faces-big-green-tests-heading-into-2012

[Harmony Blue]

3. Yes my demographic

is pro gay marriage, pro environment, anti free trade, pro green energy, etc. :dem:

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Smarmie Doofus]

4. That would be a truly magnanimous gesture. nt

[jefferson_dem]

6. Why? He's not even running to be the nominee of "the Democrat Party".

Is that even a party?

[jefferson_dem]

5. "the Democrat Party"

Really?

Um...careful there. Your slip is showing...

[Harmony Blue]

8. It is an honest mistake

The Republicans are good at pounding slogans that it enters the lexicon of our society so easily. Democratic party is the correct and respectfull way to convey the party.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Well, you and I might differ on the "honest mistake" point.

[myrna minx]

7. It's the Democratic Party. n/t

[yardwork]

14. I think that anybody who would be allowed to be elected in his place would be just as bad.

The corporations are running the country.

[MilesColtrane]

16. "Democrat Party"?

What little success some plants have made on Democratic web sites, turning regular visitors against the President, will be negligible by the time the general election rolls around.

Sorry, Charlie.

[donco]

17. Amen on that.

[treestar]

9. How many negative posts are you going to make this morning?

I believe you would be thoroughly happy to see Obama lose.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Some here are obviously have that in mind.

Stoke cynicism and apathy, and ... in the end ... encourage the defeat of this Democratic president. Shame on them.

[Zorra]

10. Halting necessary propoosed environmental legislation at the behest

of our domestic political enemies (the GOP), when 98% of your key constituents are environmentalists, doesn't help much.

Democratic legislators are going to start distancing themselves from Obama if he does not start acting like a Democrat.

He is becoming politically toxic.

[Maccagirl]

12. And for the first time, I'm going to put the blame where it belongs

on Barack Obama. You cannot be disrespected unless you allow it to happen yourself.

[Honeycombe8]

15. Well, he's not popular now. BUT that article is wrong .....

if I understand the numbers. 43/53, 42/53, 43/54....this means he's basically staying the same. Not that his numbers are taking a dive. And 43 approval rating in this economy is not bad at all. Reagan had an approval rating in the 30's at this point in his re-election campaign.

Is that sort of like when Bush would tell us the sky is green, and we were expected to believe that, and not belief our own eyes?

[Denzil_DC]

18. Yup. What's their margin of error on these polls?

Wouldn't make a headline though, would it?

[chill_wind]

19. TPM Poll article - confirms the drop in support among women:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/obama-approval-among-women-drops-but-men-are-the-problem.php

His numbers on the combined poll averages have been steady and pretty much flat and unchanged in the graphs for almost two years, but now you can see for the first time a rather sharp new uptick in overall disapproval the last couple months. We aren't talking merely KOS or DU.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-approval-obama

Here's what is really eye-popping to me: U.S. Right Track/Wrong Track

08/28/11 Rasmussen permalink Wrong Track 76.0% Right Track 16.0%
08/22/11 AP/GfK permalink Wrong Track 75.0% Right Track 21.0%
08/22/11 AP/GfK permalink Wrong Track 75.0% Right Track 21.0%
08/21/11 Rasmussen permalink Wrong Track 79.0% Right Track 14.0%
08/14/11 Rasmussen permalink Wrong Track 80.0% Right Track 15.0%
08/08/11 Ipsos permalink Wrong Track 73.0% Right Track 21.0%
08/07/11 PPP (D) permalink Wrong Track 76.0% Right Track 14.0%
08/04/11 Marist permalink Wrong Track 72.0% Right Track 21.0%

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-right-trackwrong-track

In any given poll, no more than 21% say the U.S. is headed in a good direction. That includes the Dem pollster PPP poll. (only 14%)

June's, July's and earlier polls are there for comparison.