Intrade is trading very very high that the repubs will take control of the Senate....

[a kennedy]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=84331 (mid right hand side of the page)

The Democrats to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections
Event: 2012 Senate Control 25% chance


The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections
Event: 2012 Senate Control 75% chance

Oh boy, so even if President Obama is reelected, he'll be dealing with all repubs again anyway....... :puke: :puke: :puke:

[sufrommich]

1. We are a long way away from the election. I wouldn't

count on Intrade to be accurate.

[Dawson Leery]

2. The election is more than a year away.

[Submariner]

3. If the Democrats can hammer home the message that to vote republican

means a guaranteed cut in social security and medicare, then we should get the majority of votes for the senate, house, and WH. The electorate has to be convinced that the next wave of repub power will kill the social and environmental safety nets. If they stray from that thought, we're screwed.

[Romulox]

14. Right, but arguing that a vote for a Democrat means a *smaller* cut to Social Security just doesn't

resonate with the electorate much.

[Hawkowl]

4. Obama works "better" with Republicans anyway

He certainly gives them what they want a lot more than dems.

[ClarkUSA]

6. -> So that Ignorance Won't Be The Reason Why "Progressives" Are Throwing The President Under The Bus

This is just for you. Read the italicized part especially:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=762403&mesg_id=762403

Then you can go ahead and discount the facts that debunk your empty negative rhetoric. Now if you were talking about Bill Clinton, I'd understand (see NAFTA, DADT, DOMA, media deregulation, Wall Street deregulation aka. the repeal of Glass-Steagall, inventing extraordinary rendition aka. torture, welfare "reform", scheming secretly with Newt Gingrich to cut SS and Medicare benefits, etc.).

[hfojvt]

11. I find the first comment at Kos somewhat apropo

it says something like "Oh, brother, how many times are you gonna post this same crap?"

I find that list to be at least 50% crap, especially the discussions about taxes, where I have some expertise. Here's my standard response.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/hfojvt/165

[ClarkUSA]

12. You're entitled to your own opinion but not to your own facts.

Facts are not "crap" but they can be an inconvenient truth to those who seek to demonize and minimize the achievements of this President .

[hfojvt]

19. but crap is crap,

and I want my baby back.

you want examples?

Damn it, the TAX DEAL is not PERMANENT

(1) Keep $3,000 in tax savings annually) Huh? What does that even mean? $3,000 for whom? Certainly not for me, and others like me who are in the bottom quintile.

(2) Unemployment Benefit for 7,000,000 Americans worth $56 Billion.) Yeah, pay no attention to all those other extensions of unemployment benefits that were NOT tied to tax cuts for the rich. Obviosuly the only way to get unemployment benefits extended is by also giving tax cuts to the rich.

(3) $2,500 in tax savings to help pay for college tuition and other expenses ) Awesome. Another tax break for the upper middle class. Those of us below the median income just love to see people above the median income get tax breaks. Well, I guess we should. It's not like benefits to the needy will later be cut in the name of balancing the budget. Certainly not on Obama's watch.

(4) A $2,000 payroll tax savings to someone making $100,000 or a $1,000 payroll tax savings at a 2% employee-side payroll tax cut for over 155 million workers) That almost illustrates how this tax break is tilted up. Too bad then that 40% of those 155 million workers are getting a tax break of less than the $400 they got from the making work pay credit.

(5) Child tax credit of $1,000 per child with the $3,000 maximum credit threshold.) Wonderful, childless people get to subsidize large families. A single guy like me has to pay taxes on $11,000 in income, but a family with three kids can remain tax free at over $50,000 in income.

(6) Earned Income Tax Credit that will give on an average $600 in additional assistance to families with 3 or more children) Again, let's make sure we subsidize larger families.

(7) A 65 percent tax credit to help cover the cost of COBRA for those who lost their jobs in the recession ) Exactly what good does a "tax credit" do for somebody who has lost their job and has no income? But I guess to you, it is somehow a FACT that everything on this list is a really good thing.

(8) forecast to creating approximately 1.6 million jobs increasing the GDP for 2011 ) Wow, who knew that Reaganomics was so effetive in creating jobs? Besides George W. Bush and Rush Limbaugh, I mean?

(9) extended the credit for adoption-related expenses that reduces families tax bill up to $13,170 in 2011 through 2012 with a maximum of $12,170 in credit.) Again, how rich does somebody need to be to benefit from a tax credit of $12,000? Let's see, $12,000 divided by 15% is $80,000, plus the $10,000 standard deduction, plust $7,000 for exemptions for a couple, and their income needs to be $97,000. So don't be ignorant you progressives, you should support Obama for giving tax breaks that benefit people who make more than $80,000 a year.

[Romulox]

15. Politicians are supposed to *represent the electorate*. Not the other way around.

Hope this helps.

[ClarkUSA]

16. Strawman argument much? Oh, and a huge majority of liberal Dems like Pres. Obama just fine.

Read all about it:

Obama’s approval among Democrats has hovered around a whopping 80 percent over the past year. During this same period, the base support for Presidents Bill Clinton and Lyndon B. Johnson was in the 70s, while Harry Truman struggled in the 60s. President Jimmy Carter was mired in the 50s, rebuffed by half his party.

The only Democrat who comes near Obama’s popularity with the base was John F. Kennedy in the early 1960s — and even he lagged a few points behind.

If the White House has any concerns about losing Democratic voters, it is not from the party’s progressive wing. Obama’s support there is holding strong — in the high 70s. His approval among moderate Democrats, however, is in the low 70s, while among conservative Democrats it just hit a low of 58 percent.

<snip>

“Many leading liberal voices,” Silver observed, “were unhappy with the debt ceiling deal that Mr. Obama struck with Republicans.” But that disappointment, Silver noted, “isn’t showing up in a big way among the liberal rank and file.”

This is an essential liberal disconnect: The narrators are far angrier than the audience.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=433&topic_id=765073&mesg_id=765073

:hi:

[Romulox]

17. "Liberals" like yourself, though. nt

[ClarkUSA]

18. Yup. We're called Obama supporters and we make up the Democratic Party's and Dem President's base...

...unlike those who call themselves "liberals" after supporting DLC Royal Hillary in 2008, like PUMA Jane Hamster Face, Queen of Firebaggers, who pretends to speak for the base while accepting money from Republicans for her services. Has PUMA Jane ever released the names of the Republican clients of her media firm yet?

[Romulox]

22. So just redefine "liberal" to mean "center right"? And who is supporting Hillary, here?

:shrug:

[ClarkUSA]

23. That's a false narrative. Liberals always supported Pres. Obama from Day One.

It's DLCers who supported and still support former Wal-Mart lawyer Hillary for office. Gallup polls consistently show that President Obama's support among self-identified moderate/conservative Democrats is much lower than his support among self-identified liberals, for example.

You're entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts.

[scheming daemons]

5. Simple math: Dems are defending 23 seats, GOP is defending 9

We have to hold almost all 23.

[LiberalFighter]

10. A thought they need to impart to the voters within a state that has a Democrat

Do you want your state to be the one that made it possible for Republicans to take away your Social Security & Medicare? To increase your taxes while reducing taxes for the rich and eliminating taxes for corporations?

[sinkingfeeling]

7. It's over a year a way. I doubt it.

[Selatius]

8. Intrade numbers are still in flux. The pattern could change in a year.

[hfojvt]

9. well the Cook political report requires a log in

so I cannot get data there. It certainly looks like a tough year, with 23 D incumbents up for re-election, and only 12 Rs.

On rough bet, I might break it down this way

safe D
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Minnesota
New Jersey
NY
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont

toss up D
Florida
Hawaii
Michigan
Missouri
New Mexico
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

scary D
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Virginia

safe R
Arizona
Indiana
Mississippi
Nevada
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

scary R
Maine
Massachusetts


Although there are other factors as well. Hawaii has a Republican former Governor who might win the Senate seat as Akaka finally retires http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linda_Lingle
so I moved Hawaii from safe to toss up.

One nice thing though, is that even if Republicans have the Senate, they cannot pass anything thanks to the fillibuster. With a 52-48 majority they still need 8 Democrats to get cloture.

Ultimately, Democrats must win the House, and with money falling in favor of Republicans, that looks to be a very tough battle.

[Dawson Leery]

20. North Dakota is going to the GOP.

Hawaii should stay in Democratic hands.

There is a chance for a Democratic pick-up in Nevada.

[spanone]

13. what a crock...it's a lottery ticket, nothing more

[Tx4obama]

21. Here's a LIST of WHO is up for re-election in the Senate and a list of who is retiring

The folks in the first column are the seats up for election in 2012 - Class 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classes_of_United_States_Senators#List_of_current_Senators_by_Class


p.s.

Democrats/Independents retiring and not running (six seats)

Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Independent)
Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Jim Webb of Virginia
Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

Republicans retiring and not running (2 seat)
Jon Kyl of Arizona
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Senate_election,_2012