At what point is there a mass exodus from the Southwest?

[NickB79]

How much longer can states in the south-central US hold on to their population, if this weather is the new normal of a climate-change world? 100-degree heatwaves for a month straight, 98% of Texas in drought stage that's not forecast to break until next year at the earliest, massive wildfires constantly ripping through the landscape, billions of dollars lost to destroyed crops, cities on the verge of running out of drinking water.

Anyone else think we're going to see a new wave of Okies like during the 1930's? And if so, where are they going to move to?

[teddy51]

1. One big problem to leaving though, is where do you go and what do you

use for funds to get there? Many people in these States that are affected just don't have the means to relocate. Very sad indeed.

[YellowRubberDuckie]

13. Exactly!

I'd have left this place already if I had the fundage!
Duckie

[gateley]

2. Oh, God, for their sakes I hope this isn't the new normal.

:hug:

Too many of them won't be ABLE to move. :(

[marybourg]

3. California! Oh, wait. nt

[MindPilot]

4. I've lived in the west since the mid sixties. This is nothing new.

Some or all of that shit is awlays happening someplace.

[NickB79]

8. So this isn't a record drought for Texas, or record heatwave?

Someone tell the mass media:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/8687263/Texas-suffers-record-drought.html

http://articles.cnn.com/2011-08-08/us/heat.wave_1_water-supply-warmest-rain-dance?_s=PM:US

[MindPilot]

19. It's an amazing thing

The last time there was a record heat wave and record drought, records were broken.

This is business as usual in the west and it is simply the price we pay to not have to live in the north, south or east...you know those places with perfect climates.

[Bragi]

21. An amazing disconnect

I always find it amazing when people use a phrase like "record heat wave and record drought" and don't see the disconnect in then describing it as "business as usual".

[Brigid]

5. It'll happen when the water from Lake Meade runs out

Some guy on the History Channel, whom I have seen on there before, says he thinks Vegas is a ghost town in the making because of the water issue.

[rurallib]

10. I think water is the key.

time to talk about tapping the great lakes again ...........

[kiva]

17. Lake Mead is actually up this year.

Las Vegas has been declared mortally wounded before, and yet it lives...so no, don't agree.

[hedgehog]

6. I heard the other day that fracking for gas is a big deal east of Austin,

so I guess there's still plenty of clean water!

[Brigid]

7. Is it threatening the water supply there?

Those sappy commercials from Exxon-Mobil about fracking and how safe it supposedly is are really irritating.

[DesertFlower]

9. i've been living in arizona for 22 years.

i'm not leaving. don't care for the politics but it sure beats living in NYC.

[Tx4obama]

11. Everywhere has it's problems.

California earthquakes.
Florida and other eastern states (and the southern coast) hurricanes.
Tornadoes in a huge chunk of the states.
Flooding can happen anywhere.
And drought can affect any state where rain levels are low.

[former9thward]

12. What cities are "on the verge of running out of drinking water"?

I don't know of any. I don't know what your definition of the "southwest" is but traditional southwest states like AZ and NM are not having any significant water problems. And the temperatures are not particularly unusual.

[NickB79]

15. Here you go

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/us/07drought.html?_r=2

"In Llano, a town of 3,100 about a 90-minute drive northwest of Austin in the Hill Country, the river from which the town gets 100 percent of its water supply has been running at critically low levels. One recent afternoon, the Llano River was flowing at 2.3 to 3.4 cubic feet per second, down from 123 cubic feet per second, the median level for that date."

Other links to other cities:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44189349/ns/weather/t/run-out-water-dry-texas-town-heading-way/

http://technabob.com/blog/2011/08/08/recycle-urine-drinking-water-texas/

http://www.texastribune.org/texas-environmental-news/water-supply/drought-plagued-midland-texas-is-running-out-of/

[former9thward]

16. I don't know much about Texas but I don't consider that "southwest"

The OP referred to the "southwest". Most geographers consider the SW to be AZ, NV, UT and NM. Some include CA and CO. No one includes TX.

[MindPilot]

20. I've always considered TX to be part of the south.

Geographically, for the purposes of this discussion, it's the west. But for a cultural perspective, it's the South.

[Warpy]

14. Central NM is sitting on top of a huge aquifer.

It started dropping quiet rapidly in the 90s but once people were informed, most gave up their lawns. Water restrictions are a way of life out here and they're not inconvenient when you get used to the idea. The only thing I don't like is the ultra low flow toilet.

Golf courses are even starting to use artificial turf on the fairways. If we could get all of them to do that, the water would last even longer.

Parts of the southwest will be viable for some time to come, in other words, while other parts, the ones dependent on dammed surface water like Las Vegas and a large part of California, will not. West Texas is using up the Oglalla Aquifer pretty quickly for irrigation, so it's likely to become nonviable in a few decades.

Likely water restrictions all over the southwest will continue to increase and people will leave as they become burdensome. However, it's going to be a very long process, taking many decades, so don't panic quite yet.

[rollin74]

18. I don't think that's going to happen

[Shagbark Hickory]

22. Summer is over. Summer is over. Summer is over. nt

[Bragi]

23. The rich will stay, middle class will leave, the poor wil die

I think working class people will have to move to better climates as the cost of energy for air conditioning escalates, but the rich who can afford it will build themselves even more super-fortified and walled-off enclaves.

The idea will be to protect the rich from the scary folks outside the walls who are too poor to move and forced to live by tryng to steal stuff from the rich.

I think that's how climate change will be is dealt with in most societies with egregious social and economic inequalities, which is one of the few statistical categories where the U.S remains a world leader, and continues to make progress.