Rick Perry and the election

[Are_grits_groceries]

IMHO the most important idea to keep in mind is not what Rick Perry says, but what most people HEAR.

The people on DU hear know every statement and position he has held and can parse his every sentence. The general public is not nearly so involved. If you don't think he can be elected, I would remember 2000 for starters.

I agree that he has said some of the dumbest things I have ever heard. He could win a race to the bottom with Palin or Bachmann.

The most important problem on people's minds is the economy and jobs in particular. The rest of his absolute craziness may get a lot less attention than his statements and proposals about those issues. President Obama does not exactly shine in those areas.

I DO NOT think Perry has any better ideas. I expect if he were to take office, gawd forbid, he would immediately pivot from really creating jobs and start attacking social issues. They all do that.

I have never liked what I have heard from Perry on any issue. However, what message the overall electorate actually hears is another thing, especially in these uncertain times.

He has that head of steam up. I don't see much in his way on the GOP side. Perry will be wide open and moving fast for the general election if he wins the GOP nomination.

I wouldn't dismiss him at all.

[liberal N proud]

1. The general public hears what the M$M tells them

Things like he has never lost an election and his state has created more jobs blah blah blah...

[sfpcjock]

2. I know what you mean, but frankly Obama can easily outdebate

a C student from A&M. See, he is a huge fraud: a Democrat who saw the light as Reagan is rumored to have when Nancy's father suggested to him how to make the big bucks and he converted. Truth usually beats fraud :)

[Are_grits_groceries]

4. Really?

I think fraud beat truth in the 2000 election. Don't discount GOP shenanigans.

As for out debate, if Perry has any brain cells, he will use the Palin approach. Ignore the real question for the most part. Give a superficial nod to a direct answer and pivot to something else if need be.

These aren't really debates. They are media driven contests that pretend to be. If people were scoring them like debates, the Obama would win going away.

However, Perry has presence and enough self assurance to make an impact. Hopefully it won't be a good one.

It won't be a debate as much as a rumble, and President Obama better show up with passion and ready for a fight.

The best issue to use WOULD be his take on SS. However, that tactic has been weakened by the President's own positions on it. He isn't calling it a Ponzi scheme, but both can be painted with a broad brush about dismantling it. That neutralizes that issue a lot.

As for the 'C' student argument, I don't think the public cares. Bush was a 'C' at best and we got a mess. President Obama has a tremendous amount of education, and it is still a mess. I know the arguments about the problems and their difficulties and where they started, etc.... The public wants results. They don't see a better education in a president as getting the nation very far. That is the appearance. Education is a wash unfortunately.

[cali]

5. Who's going to paint the President as wanting to dismantle SS?

The repubs? The MSM? Nope. You couldn't be more wrong. That issue isn't neutralized at all

[Are_grits_groceries]

8. The GOP or their

PACS will have mashups of every word the president has uttered about SS. They will make it appear as if he said he was going to burn the next checks that were going to be sent out.

They will muddle the issue so much that any truth will be lost. They are experts and have been doing it for years.

When people hear 'it's on the table,' that means somebody is going to mess with it. Getting people to make a leap to dismantle or make it much smaller isn't a hard one to make.

I know he didn't say dismantle it. However, if they don't get out first with a great message, the lie that will be blasted will take center stage. Unfortunately, it has been proven that negative campaigning works.

As far as the MSM, I wouldn't put anything past them. They helped make Palin a star even with her word salad messages. I don't remember them smacking her around a great deal. The Couric interview was a self-inflicted wound for Palin.

I guess I take a much darker view of the whole process. I watched Lee Atwater get his start here so I have had a front row seat for years.

I hope I am wrong.

[cali]

11. Not if Perry's the nom. Not a frickin' chance.

that's ludicrous. Now if Romney is the nominee, that's a slim possibility but not with Perry.

[sfpcjock]

7. Yes, really.

[bklyncowgirl]

6. Don't count on that. Remember Al Gore and George Bush

Gore won on the issues but Bush acted like "a guy you'd like to have a beer with" and therefore won. Obama's a bit quicker on his feet and sports considerably more charm than Gore but Perry can and will sting him on the economy. Watching last night Perry has a knack for the simple toss of applause line. Obama did well against McCain but McCain was engaging on the issues. Perry will ignore the questions toss darts and try and get Obama to make one of those fatal flaws that a serious man might make when debating a mental lightweight.

[sfpcjock]

10. That's just it--it was Al Gore

I guess I've just got faith and seen what a good debater Obama is. One of the biggest things is to remain cool, and when hasn't he done that? Gotta say, I don't feel it in my bones to worry about this. Of course we are talking 15 months in the future with all of those eventualities... there could be an October surprise. Lots of things could and will happen. It's a media plot to get us to watch!

[cali]

3. Here's what the general public will hear if he's nominated:

Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme

It's a monstrous lie.

I don't dismiss him, but I think he's far less of a threat than Romney.

[Are_grits_groceries]

9. Romney will never get by the base of the GOP.

The base is made up of rabid RWers and evangelicals. That core drives the message. Why do you think the GOP has gone so far to the right? They need that core to even start an election because of their zeal and willingness to work.

Romney is a Mormon. That may seem to be a trivial fact, but it's not. A lot of evangelicals and others in the base think that the Mormon religion is a cult. Don't think that that very message won't be dogwhistled until the cows come home.

Perry has a 20 point lead in SC as of 8/31. He is ahead in national polls for the GOP.

See post #8 about what I feel the public will hear about SS.

[cali]

12. I hope you're right. I think you're wrong.

Look, Romney is far more formidable in the general than Perry. And I can definitely see a path to the nomination for Romney. Honestly the repuke base isn't much more rabid than they were 4 years ago- and remember who won then.

[Are_grits_groceries]

14. There is a big difference now.

President Obama is no longer a new face with a fresh and believable message. He has got to work to get parts of his own base energized.

His jobs speech better be a winner because it may be the last point he can introduce a plan that will not be completely swallowed up by political campaigning. If he says the same old thing even with a twist or two, people will tune him out.

[Cosmocat]

18. They absolutely ARE more rabid ...

by a long mile.

See, Tea party and needed HCR turned into a debate about socialism.

It drives even those Rs who are not complete lunatics nuts to see ANY democrat in the white house, much less Barrack Obama.

Seriously, it is absolutely palpable how unhinged the party as a whole is now.

Romney and Perry are both formidable in the primary for different reasons.

Yes, Romney will have more appeal to the mushy middle. But, he won't have the full support of the party.

Perry will. They might be infighting now, but if he is the nominee all wingw will fall behind him, and he will have the TRULLY committed enthusiasm of the hard right, which will give him more boots on the ground and grass roots support. Romney will get the hate BO energy. Perry will have amplied with the love of the candidate energy.

[ladjf]

13. Perry could win the election in 2012 because America has reached

a new low in political naivete. nt

[KharmaTrain]

15. He's Not Talking To The General Public...He's Dogwhistling...

Actually all the rushpublicans are...but Parry is whistling Dixie in four part harmony right now.

These debates aren't for the "general public"...and most definitely not for those of us who'd rather have hot pokers stuck in our eyes than to ever cast a vote for a rushpublican. This is for the wingnut fundie from Mason City, Iowa or Myrtle Beach, S.C. or any of those early primary states that will determine who the rushpublican nominee is. Since the most rabid of the unhinged will weather the storms and show up at the caucuses and be at the polls, this is who are being targeted. That's why we're seeing so many of these douchenozzles double down on the crazy this year...those who will be deciding their fate want lots of raw meat.

[Are_grits_groceries]

16. The GOP debates are never

about the general public anymore. The candidates have to get through the base. Then they pivot to the general election and somehow present some message that enough of the public will believe. Plus they cheat in all sorts of ways with voting machines, tricks at the polls, and clerks in positions to monkey with things.

[malaise]

17. The 2000 election was a coup by

the Supreme Court of the United States.
Al Gore won that election.

[Cosmocat]

19. Absolutely - not a single person here who is panning him ...

will have vote in the primary.

I think there is one thing people here should understand by now, and that is that they think on a TOTALLY different level than us.

Frankly, being the biggest sociopath in a crew full of uncontrollable liars is a positive to that team.

[kctim]

20. Perry doesn't have a chance

The media will make it seem like he wants to throw EVERYBODY off social security on the same day he is sworn in and even moderate Republicans will be voting for President Obama.

[Are_grits_groceries]

21. I wouldn't count on the MSM to

warn that a crazy acting dog might be rabid. They would comment on the color of his coat or something. If they do say anything it will be in the context of other issues.
The Dems have to be the ones to have a coherent message and blast it everywhere all the time.

[kctim]

22. Don't count on it? It has already started doing it

Have heard nothing but how Perry said it was a ponzi scheme and wants to totally DISMANTLE social security, this morning. They have ALREADY labeled Perry and people are actually believing it to such an extreme and are running scared.

Barring another HCR fiasco, President Obama is going to be re-elected.