Statistically, You Have a Better Chance of Being Executed by Perry Than Dying in an Airplane Crash

[kpete]

Statistically, You Have a Better Chance of Being Executed by Rick Perry Than Dying in an Airplane Crash

OK, maybe not you -- you may well live in a state other than Texas. And if you do live in the Lone Star State but you're white, that'll also decrease your odds of taking the needle. But in terms of overall population, Texans are more likely to have their execution order signed by Rick Perry than they are to die in an airplane crash.

That's via This Is Hell Radio with Chuck Mertz, which is probably my favorite political talk-show -- Chicagoans shouldn't miss it.

A couple of nerds on Twitter (follow me!) fact-checked this claim -- cautioning that it was "napkin math" -- and came up with the following:

For TX residents, the odds are: plane crash 5.85*10^-5%, Perry execution: 8.33*10^5%.

http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/663741/statistically%2C_you_have_a_better_chance_of_being_executed_by_rick_perry_than_dying_in_an_airplane_crash/

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. Is Obama against the death penalty? If so, this would be a great point to make

during the campaign IF Perry wins the Primary.

[gratuitous]

2. A presidential candidate against the death penalty?

You'll see an atheist elected president first.

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. Well, that's SICK. No wonder Perry was applauded for executing Texas inmates.

This country sucks. Seriously, seriously sucks. :(

[slackmaster]

3. I do occasionally fly in airplanes, but I don't commit violent felonies

The DP does sometimes get applied to the wrong person, but in most cases the recipient had to do something illegal and violent in order to qualify.

[Ineeda]

4. The key phrase is "in most cases"??

Wow.

[slackmaster]

8. It's a clear enough correlation, albeit imperfect, to invalidate the pseudo-statistic in the OP

HTH

[saras]

11. Yeah, about two thirds to three quarters. The DNA record is TERRIFYING if you're innocent.

I'm not talking crime in general. I'm talking death penalty.

[NNN0LHI]

9. The 13 innocent men we had on our death row waiting to be executed didn't commit any felonies either

So I would say this type of situation probably happens more often then "sometimes."

Bet it happens a lot.

Don

[slackmaster]

10. It happens way too often. Once is too many. But the pseudo-statistic cited in the OP is bunk.

:hi:

[dimbear]

6. If the chances Perry will execute you are actually almost a million percent,

Texas isn't going to be a big fraction of the electorate.

[quaker bill]

7. Another good reason to avoid Texas

[customerserviceguy]

12. Well, if we're going to play with napkin math

Did the folks who calculated the airline crash possibilities figure only the Texans who fly? Did they at least attempt to figure out the percentages with people flying in or out of Texas, even if that state were not their place of origin or destination? I'd have to think that Texas gets less air disasters than some other places, such as terrorist target states like NY.

[ThoughtCriminal]

13. If you're innocent

It improves your odds, but you are probably still worse off that an Aeroflot passenger.

I haven't looked at the stats, but I'm guessing if you aren't a white male in Texas, your odds are a lot worse than flying - even if your innocent.