Natural Gas Bombshell: Switching From Coal to Gas Increases Warming for Decades

[deminks]

http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/09/09/315845/natural-gas-switching-from-coal-to-gas-increases-warming-for-decades/

A stunning new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) concludes:

In summary, our results show that the substitution of gas for coal as an energy source results in increased rather than decreased global warming for many decades….

The fact that natural gas is a bridge fuel to nowhere was first shown by the International Energy Agency in its big June report on gas — see IEA’s “Golden Age of Gas Scenario” Leads to More Than 6°F Warming and Out-of-Control Climate Change. That study — which had both coal and oil consumption peaking in 2020 — made abundantly clear that if we want to avoid catastrophic warming, we need to start getting off of all fossil fuels.

But what NCAR’s new study adds is more detailed modeling of all contributors to climate change from fossil fuel combustion — positive and negative. The study (subs. req’d) is here, an early version is here, the news release is here. It’s by senior research associate Tom Wigley, one of the country’s leading experts on climate modeling.

“Relying more on natural gas would reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, but it would do little to help solve the climate problem,” says Wigley, who is also an adjunct professor at the University of Adelaide in Australia. “It would be many decades before it would slow down global warming at all, and even then it would just be making a difference around the edges.”

(end snip)

Frack, baby, frack.

[hobbit709]

1. It would be cleaner in regard to particulates, not CO2.

burning fossil fuels is burning fossil fuels-it matters not which fuel you're burning.

[Bandit]

9. That's bs

If more vehicles used natural gas instead of diesel or gasoline there would be way less smog in LA and Dallas and all major cities. Burning natural gas is a hundred times cleaner than either of those other two and that is why most indoor warehouses use fork lifts powered by propane or natural gas. They could not even operate if they had to use gasoline, it would literally kill the workers. poison them with carbon monoxide.

[hobbit709]

10. It is STILL burning carbon.

CO2 is the problem. Smog is an extra from burning fossil fuels but the main problem is CO2.
Smog is caused by incomplete combustion, assorted nitrogen and sulfur compounds and other such-actually smog offsets the greenhouse effect of CO2.

[DCBob]

2. "where a percentage of the gas production is assumed to leak into the atmosphere"

Can't leaks be fixed?

[enough]

3. Apparently they are not talking about simple leaks from pipes or containers.

From a report quoted in the article:


Natural gas is composed largely of methane, and 3.6% to 7.9% of the methane from shale-gas production escapes to the atmosphere in venting and leaks over the life-time of a well. These methane emissions are at least 30% more than and perhaps more than twice as great as those from conventional gas. The higher emissions from shale gas occur at the time wells are hydraulically fractured — as methane escapes from flow-back return fluids — and during drill out following the fracturing. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential that is far greater than that of carbon dioxide, particularly over the time horizon of the first few decades following emission.

end quote


This sounds like a much more difficult problem (possibly impossible) than just fixing leaks here and there. And hardly likely that the corporations will be inclined to decrease profits by taking steps to mitigate.

[DCBob]

4. There could be regulations to require monitoring and keep the leaks to a minimum.

There are always ways to deal with things like this if there is incentive to do it.

[Divernan]

7. Obama's fracking panel recommends fracking industry be self-regulating

More from
http://www.desmogblog.com/scientists-say-obama-fracking...

Food and Water Watch, in a statement released today, condemns the (Obama fracking committee) report for leaving the important task of overseeing hydraulic fracturing and gas production to the industry itself. The report, according to the release, “downplays the concerns of those affected by fracking - communities that have been turned into sacrifice zones at the expense of the natural gas industry’s desire to turn a profit.”

http://www.foodandwaterwatch.org/

“We know that industry has gone to great lengths to influence local governments, and even greater lengths to avoid culpability at a nation level. Why should we let the industry police itself while leaving localities to fight for themselves?” writes Wenonah Hauter, Food and Water Watch executive director.

The report suggests that funding at the federal level could help the gas industry develop the kinds of ‘best practices’ needed to avoid unnecessary social or environmental side effects of gas drilling. “The federal government should be taking an active role in protecting consumers and the environment from hydraulic fracturing, not throwing money at a destructive and unprofitable industry,” says Hauter.

The panel’s report is only the first installment of its project. The full Committee report will be released mid-November. Comments on the draft report will be received until noon August 15.
______________________________________________________________

Well, isn't that special - the first installment/report is completed, but will not be released until AFTER the November election, i.e, mid-November!

[DCBob]

8. i would not recommend self-regulating.

that has not worked in the past.

[truedelphi]

13. But it is a good explanation of why people in the fracking areas can

light on fire the "water" coming out of their kitchen faucet!

Thanks for posting the info.

[Strelnikov_]

12. "Can't leaks be fixed?" No

The underlying strata is being fractured which leads to a small amount of methane leaking out at many locations.

Most of the problems we have seen, like the 'lighting tap water on fire' display, is due to this leakage.

They drill a well, fracture the strata, gas under pressure at depth now has more paths to leak to the surface.

I am sure the this loss of 'product' is factored into the producers cost analysis for a formation.

As for the climate damage, not so much.

[madrchsod]

5. at the rate the permafrost is melting.....adapt or die.

[Divernan]

6. Scientists Say Obama fracking panel has substantial financial ties to gas industry.

http://www.desmogblog.com/scientists-say-obama-fracking-panel-financially-tied-gas-industry1 August 11
Scientists Say Obama Fracking Panel is Financially Tied to Gas Industry

The Natural Gas Subcommittee of the Secretary of the Energy Advisory Board released their draft report today, which outlines immediate actions to improve the health and environmental risks associated with hydraulic fracturing. The report, a culmination of 90 days of research, is a part of President Obama’s larger plan for unconventional gas in his “Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future.”

The panel, handpicked by Secretary of Energy Steven Chu, is directed to investigate the safety of shale gas development and to make recommendations for both improvements to the process as well as ‘best practice’ strategies that can act as recommendations to relevant agencies.

The 41-page report makes clear the conviction that the current state of distrust surrounding the gas industry is bad for business. The industry, the panel suggests, needs to become more transparent, well-regulated and engaged. “And industry response that hydraulic fracturing has been performed safely for decades rather than engaging the issues concerning the public will not succeed.” Besides, the report goes on, modern hydraulic fracturing has really only been performed since 2002 or 2003 and not since the 1940’s.

Despite the panel’s recommendations to make the gas production process more transparent to the public, there is still a strong industry back-bone running throughout the report’s body. Weighing the pros and cons of shale gas production against environmental risks is of no interest to the panel. Oh, the drilling will happen, they say, but we need to also “give the public concrete reason to believe that environmental impacts will be reduced and well managed on an ongoing basis, and that problems will be mitigated and rapidly corrected, if and when they occur” and so on and so forth.

[Strelnikov_]

11. I've been wondering about leakage of a 'supercharged' greenhouse gas

due to fracking.

The modeling has now been done.

Guess, like locusts, we don't plan on leaving a habitable climate behind.