What's next for Lebanon? The resignation of Hezbollah brings back memories of 2006, and the dark

[pampango]

days that followed.

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/lebanon/110112/government-hezbollah-collapse#

This scenario has played out before. In November 2006, after Hezbollah fought a grueling month-long war against Israel, the Shiite ministers in Fouad Siniora’s cabinet, Lebanon's prime minister at the time, resigned, leading to an 18-month political crisis. A Hezbollah-led sit in paralyzed downtown Beirut. Street clashes between Sunnis and Shiites were common. General strikes halted traffic at the airport.

The crisis was diffused when a deal brokered by Qatar led to the Doha agreements. The U.S.-backed March 14 movement, of which current Prime Minister Saad Hariri is a key leader, largely gave the more powerful Hezbollah-led opposition what they wanted.

The fruit of those concessions came to bear today, when the opposition used its one-third plus one veto power to bring the government down — a key request made in 2006 and gained in 2008 at Doha.

(T)he Special Tribunal for Lebanon is poised to indict members of Hezbollah in the murder of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Hezbollah views this as an existential threat. Killing the Sunni leader of Lebanon and former prime minister would destroy any claims the group has toward “defending Lebanon” with its massive arsenal of weapons, which Hezbollah says it needs to defend against Israeli aggression.


A wall clock bearing a picture of Hezbollah
Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah
is displayed in a shop in Beirut's
southern suburbs on May 15, 2008.

[bemildred]

1. The tribunal has been "poised" to do something for around 4 years now.

And Lebanon has managed fine for extended periods with no government in the past.
Unless the tribunal finally does something, I consider this more empty blather in a long stream of empty blather.