This is local election with National Implications. The NY RACE for

[OHdem10]

for Weiner's Cong Seat is a Referendum on Obama
and his policies. SO SAYS Fox Channel every hour
on the hour.

Notice how they frame it. I have quoted almost
ver batim.

[book_worm]

1. So says PPP poll which shows President Obama very unpopular in district

but I agree the Dems nominated a very poor candidate who has done a lousy job. Reminds me of the special election in MA for Kennedy's seat. We just got to start taking every election seriously and not thinking, 'Oh, it's a strong democratic district (or state) and it will be ok.'

[Tesha]

3. I'm sorry, but after the 2008-2010 Congressional session, there *AREN'T* any "Strong Democratic...

...districts" left; they're all up-for-grabs thanks to
our exceptionally-clever Democratic "leadership".

Tesha

[Davis_X_Machina]

2. Remember our special election victories in '09 and '10?

Came in the run-up to a 65-seat pasting, didn't they?

That should suggest none of this really matters.

I remember when Harris Wofford's surprise win in the PA Senate special election to replace John Heinz (R-PA) after his death in a helicopter crash indicated that the liberal tide was turning, and that health care reform was just around the corner -- it was the central theme in Wofford's campaign.

He got buried two years later -- by Rick Santorum -- and HCR died a-borning. We waited 17 more years for the ACA.

Everything in politics is over-determined. There are far more potential causes than there are plausible effects.