That sinking feeling

[xchrom]

http://www.economist.com/node/21528624



AS BARACK OBAMA sinks into the plumped pillows of his king-size maple-wood bed each night, one thought may help lull him to sleep: incumbent presidents are hard to beat. Of the last ten to seek a second term, seven were re-elected.

That, however, is about the only electoral precedent in Mr Obama’s favour these days. Economic growth is more sluggish than it was before Gerald Ford’s or George Bush senior’s electoral defeats, let alone Ronald Reagan’s or Bill Clinton’s come-from-behind victories. Unemployment has not been this stubbornly high in the run-up to an election since the 1940s. Individual purchasing power, which is thought by many analysts to have more bearing on election results than any other economic indicator, actually fell by the government’s last tally.

The polls corroborate the baleful economic portents. Mr Obama’s approval rating, which had hobbled along just below 50% for a year and a half, has descended to 40% or so in the past two months (on the economy, the figure is even more dismal). It is departing from the realm of plausible re-election prospects, in other words, and moving towards a Jimmy Carterish netherworld. The preponderance of voters say that if given the chance they would trade in Mr Obama for a Republican.

All this could change in the 14 months before the election in November of next year, of course. Growth could pick up, and unemployment could start to fall. Voters, it is said, do not expect the president to come up with a miracle cure for the economy; they are just looking for some improvement in the vital signs. Reagan, after all, cruised to re-election in 1984 with unemployment at almost the level that had sunk Mr Carter four years before (see chart). The difference was that joblessness, although still high, was falling fast.

[Exultant Democracy]

1. Shouldn't have wasted half of the first stimulus on worthless republican tax cuts

if he wanted to give the economy the best chance to improve and therefor his reelection the best chance. This isn't a Monday morning quarterbacking thing either there were plenty on the left including myself that told him all along he was going the wrong way.

[HughBeaumont]

2. Not that I'm denying America's problems . . .

. . . but The Economist isn't exactly a progressive source, is it?

This rag would cheerlead a Republican victory since Republicans and The Economist lurves them some Supply Side, even though it's painfully obvious President Obama is no FDR when it comes to economic issues. Republican solutions aren't going to cure Republican-created problems.

[patrice]

3. THANKS for that last sentence! I think you just gave me my next sign for

our rallies in Topeka.

:hi:

[pansypoo53219]

4. WHO POKED THE HOLES IN THE BOAT?

oh yeah, the GOP who's ONLY goal is obama be 1 term. gotta burn the country down to SAVE it.