The polls just closed in NYC

[cali]

We should see returns pretty soon in the race to replace Weiner.

Link for returns:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Modern_Matthew]

1. Anxiously awaiting. nt

[4001001]

15. Uh oh.

I'm scared.

The Paul Ryan anger has somewhat subsided.

[RBInMaine]

2. Any reports on the ground of effectiveness of Dem turnout operation?

[Exilednight]

3. There was a big ad buy in the market, but it may have begun too late. I've only seen the ads in the

past two days. Win The Future has basically turned into What The Fuck.

[gateley]

4. Holding my breath, although I read here that lots of

anti-Semite/Obama crap has been dumped on the area. Primarily Jewish, right?

What ugly, ugly people these Republicans are. Just despicable.

[dennis4868]

14. yep!

Repubs and orthodox jews are lying their asses of about Obama and his record on Israel...this is the one and only reason we are going to lose NY09.

[gateley]

16. Enlighten me here if you can --

Is Obama considered less friendly to the Jewish community than the Republicans? Is that why the Orthodox followers are working against him? Thanks.

[dennis4868]

18. According to most orthodox jews...

Obama is the worse president ever for Israel (even though that is far far from the truth). They view him as someone who wants to wipe Israel off the map...so repubs are taking advantage of this and turning dem votes into votes for their candidate.

[gateley]

21. Okay, thanks. That explains it. I'm just always surprised

that any discriminated-against group of people would lean Republican.

[Mz Pip]

5. it's all about GOTV.

If the GOP really pushed this and Dems stayed home, then we get what we get.

[gateley]

6. They always do a far better job than we do (if we attempt it

at all). But then, they've got big bucks behind them, and it's tough to compete with that.

[RBInMaine]

8. What the hell are you talking about? NYC has a VERY active Dem turnout operation.

[RandySF]

9. This is not deep blue territory.

Obama not only lost to McCain, he did worse than Kerry.

[Dawson Leery]

10. Obama won the district with 55%

Kerry won the district with 58%.

[RandySF]

11. ooops. I got it half right.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[RBInMaine]

25. No I'm not saying there is nothing to worry about. But saying Dem turnout work around the country is

generally weak just isn't true either.

[gateley]

26. I'm watching the results now -- R leading in Queens,

55/44%, Brooklyn numbers haven't appeared yet, last time I looked.

[RBInMaine]

7. I heard the Dem turnout operation was in full swing. 1000 pairs of boots on the ground.

[chill_wind]

12. TPM projections from a couple pollsters

a couple days ago:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x625989

[Broderick]

17. I predict a dem victory in NY

Turner group panicking. Filing lawsuits before results come out.

[dennis4868]

20. I hope you are right...

but I don't see it happening...there is real anger in that district against Obama regarding Israel (even though it not based on facts).

[cali]

19. I don't get it. The polls have been closed for nearly an hour and no returns

have been posted.

[Broderick]

22. Strange

But maybe it's normal there or the polls stayed open late.

[kelly1mm]

24. Did you check the linked AP cite above? 3 precincts reporting. The R

is ahead by 1 vote. Still very early.

[toddwv]

23. Results are posting now...

[Modern_Matthew]

27. 9 precincts now. 363 Turner, 283 Weprin nt

[chill_wind]

28. And here's another.

(But not broken down by precinct)

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/scoreboard.php?ref=fpblg

Looks like the Nevada results will be posted at that same link.

[cali]

29. much clearer. thanks

[Broderick]

30. Hang tight folks

It's very early results. The area is solidly blue. The democrats have flooded the district to get out the vote. I smell a big victory for Democrats!!!

[RBInMaine]

31. Early results not good. TOUGH race: weak APPOINTED Dem candidate, STRONG anger at Obama by Jewish

population there, and people very upset about the economy. Also, socially conservative, OLD, and narrow electorate.

[Broderick]

33. I think I will stay positive

In my hopeful tone - just watch. ;)

[RBInMaine]

34. We all hope. But I've seen the polling, and the underlying dynamics I think are too hard to overcome

[Broderick]

36. The polling was shit.

This is gonna shock republicans I think.

[chill_wind]

38. One of them is the Dem affilated PPP.

They've had a pretty good streak.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/08/just-a-few-short-years.php
http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0711/The_polling_is_right_Why_PPP_deserves_props.html

[Broderick]

39. They can't poll organization.

The republicans have no ground effect. No organized organization in the district remotely compared to democrats. The seat has been strongly democratic for 90 years. They outnumber republican registration 3 to 1. Staying positive and understanding the fault with mere polling.

[RBInMaine]

41. But it is a special election with an OLD, ETHNIC, SMALL, SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE electorate angry at

Obama, and very worried about the economy. They look at LIKELY voters for THIS election. I hope you're right. But it's a TOUGH climb for the Dem who is a weak candidate to boot.

[vercetti2021]

37. But

If we do win that seat under those circumstances then you know what the outcome will be in 2012

[vercetti2021]

32. Hmm

Getting kinda nervous but its still early.

[Broderick]

35. Weprin Up

This will ebb and flow on early counts.

[chill_wind]

40. Nevada's starting to come in.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/scoreboard.php?ref=fpblg

[vercetti2021]

42. Yeah...

Now is a time to start to worry.

[RBInMaine]

43. Worry about what? The sun will still come up tomorrow. Chill.

[chill_wind]

44. At this point

I don't think we could call either one of these "close."

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/scoreboard.php?ref=fpblg

NY-09 81% in.
NV-02 79% in.


"That's the ballgame."

AP Calls NV-02 For Mark Amodei

As expected, Republican Mark Amodei will win the special election for NV-02 comfortably. AP’s just called the race.

11:59 PM
AP Calls NY-09 For Republican Bob Turner

That’s the ballgame — with more than half of precincts reporting, the Associated Press has named Bob Turner the winner over Democrat David Weprin in NY-09’s special election.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/