Here's why the Republicans won in NY 9

[TomClash]

1. The Dems ran a poor candidate. Weprin's father was Assembly Speaker and he's been in the City Council and Assembly and so has his brother. If you wanted to vote against the NYC Democratic establishment, there was no better opportunity. No one else wanted the job because NY 9 is likely to be eliminated after redistricting if a Dem won.

2. It's the economy stupid. Here is the cautionary tale for the Administration. One Dem who voted for Turner named Linda Goldberg said "the economy is horrible and people are scared." That's exactly right. It's definitely not fair but the voters now think it's your economy, Mr. President, and if it doesn't get better soon you might not get re-elected.

3. The District - if there is a district outside of NY 13 where Republicans could pick up a seat this is it. Mostly white, older, cranky - think Archie Bunker if he had a slightly better job and bit more money. Part of the district is de facto redlined and part of it is legally restricted, including where Turner lives. Some of it is Orthodox and very conservative.

4. Israel was a small factor. Koch and Hikind made it a factor by crossing over (sometimes I think Koch is only a Dem because he's gay and Hikind is only a Dem to get City money). Both Weprin and Turner draped themselves in the Israeli flag so it is really hard to see why anyone would vote for Turner solely on this issue, except as a stab at the President, who hasn't done anything to "hurt" Israel.

[Mr Deltoid]

1. Fear drives certain people to vote against their own best interests

I believe the term is, 'Brainwashing.'

[blm]

2. Koch only likes RW Dems. The asshole was all over TV supporting Bush in 2004.

Along with another very famous Dem who vigorously defended Bush's military decisions and leadership during his summer2004 book tour.

[hlthe2b]

3. those are all likely factors... but despite both "draping in the Israeli flag"

only Weprin supported the "Ground Zero Mosque"... I have my doubts how small a factor that was, given that the RETHUG used it in campaign ad material to apparently good effect. This would have been an appeal to those "white, older, cranky Archie Bunker types as well.

One wonders if those who brought this ass to office will be quickly disillusioned. :shrug:

[TomClash]

9. They will be disillusioned nt

[NNN0LHI]

4. I realize it is a common name but do you know if this is the Linda Goldberg you are quoting?

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/economists/goldberg/index.html

[TomClash]

8. It is not her nt

[NNN0LHI]

12. Is it the same one quoted in post #10?

[Modern_Matthew]

5. A Neandrathal electorate. Same explanation for 2010. nt

[former9thward]

25. Interesting. Was that the same "Neandrathal electorate" in 2008?

Did space aliens come down and replace them with pod people?

[Bandit]

6. No one has mentioned turn out...

I suspect that probably was the main factor......:shrug:

[TomClash]

11. True but that's part of Nos. 1 and 2

Bad candidate and bad economy = low turnout.

[UTUSN]

7. Wasn't it Orthodox Jews voting against Gay marriage?!1

The wingnut spin is that it was a referendum on OBAMA over "Israel and the economy," but TURNER is an O'LOOFAH-style/Catholic-"traditionalist" who made (anti-)Gay marriage a main issue, while Orthodox Jew (the Democrat) was pro.

[kelly1mm]

36. That is my take as well. While certainly an important issue, just like gun

control, taking progressive stands on these can doom you in certain districts that otherwise would be winnable. The party needs to realize this. I am not saying people should not take hard stands, just that they and others understand the consequences of those stands.

[NNN0LHI]

10. That Democrat you quoted in your #2 says she voted Republican here

“I am a registered Democrat, I have always been a registered Democrat, I come from a family of Democrats — and I hate to say this, I voted Republican,” said Linda Goldberg, 61, after casting her ballot in Queens. “I need to send a message to the president that he’s not doing a very good job. Our economy is horrible. People are scared.”

Not much of a Democrat if you ask me.

Don

[TomClash]

15. Yes, she voted for Turner - I said that

Turner was the Republican.

You're right but it's her rationale that's important. Plus, her take may be the view of many independents. It's worrisome.

[NNN0LHI]

18. Well in that case she showed her ignorance when she voted for the Republican then

Why are you quoting someone as ignorant as that like she is someone we should be paying attention to?

She is either an idiot or thinks everyone else is. Or both?

Don

[TomClash]

23. Because she's thinking what many voters are thinking

We are deluding ourselves if we think that voters will re-elect the President if the economy is stagnant. It must pick up, which the President is trying to address, or the Republicans must be blamed for blocking his program and gutting the economy.

[NNN0LHI]

24. You sound like you know this woman personally. Do you?

How do you know she isn't just full of shit and looking for someone gullible enough to believe and repeat her bullshit?

And where did you find this quote?

Don

[EC]

19. Sure lets send a message to Obama by

making it harder to get anything done, by voting repub. Makes sense, doesn't it? I just wish people would use their brains.

[jeff47]

29. Well, he wasn't getting it done with the majorities he had. "sending a message" is all that's left.

[EC]

33. I'm guessing there are other ways of

"sending a message".

[jeff47]

35. Such as?

Complaints or Protests results in being told to shut up, and "you just want a pony".

Withholding cash results in catering more to the corpratists giving out cash.

What do you propose we do other than withholding our vote?

[LynneSin]

13. The seat will return to us in 2012. I'm not even breaking a sweat over this one

It doesn't change the balance of the house.

I hope the guy enjoys his 15 months in office - it'll be over the same time Scott Brown's career will also retire.

[TomClash]

26. The seat might be gone in 2012

If not, I hope you are right.

[former9thward]

30. I'm sure you didn't break a sweat about the 2010 results either.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

14. Linda is an idiot

Bob Turner as a Republican will do everything he can to fuck her and her family and put corporations first.

[bullwinkle428]

16. Wait...when did Koch come out of the closet?

:shrug:

[Atman]

17. In this race, it was purely voter turnout.

I still don't buy into the absurd rationale that "we are mad at the Democratic President, so we're going to vote back in the Republicans who cause this mess." There is no logic there. People may be upset with America's current situation, but the polls show that America also knows who caused the mess. So vote them back in? No fucking way. This race came down to voter turnout. Or fraud. Or a frothy mix of both.

.

[youforeal]

20. I just can't believe this seat was last held by the GOP 90 years ago. how could it turn now,

we need it more now than ever before!

[spin]

21. Welcome to DU.

[youforeal]

39. thanks!

:hi:

[valerief]

22. Or maybe it was the legalized COUP MACHINES used to tally votes. nt

[mvd]

27. I think #1 and #3 were the biggest reasons, plus..

Weiner fatigue. I'm not sure how popular Obama would have had to have been for us to win this seat.

[EndElectoral]

28. Da Nile is a river in Egypt

Voter dissatisfaction is huge. Incumbents are going to struggle this year, and yes, Obam is going to be blamed for the state of the economy. He spread a message of hope and change. Well the only significant change voters are "feeling" is high unemployment, rising healthcare costs, and lower wages.

Has Obama accomplished positive things? Sure, he has. Significant things. But THESE will not be want the MSM focuses upon and what the people really vote on. They will vote on the state of the economy. And when it's bad you get an anti-incumbent vote.

Personally, Obama lost me along the way despite my admiration for his oratorial skills. The Bush (now Obama tax cuts for the wealthy), the failure to really push for a single payer system, the continued presence of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, his compromises on the environment, his continual capitualtions to the right in the name of one-sided compromises, his putting social security and medicare/medicaid on the chopping block, his stance on education, his odd cabinent appointments such as Getiner for Treasury, and the list goes on.

I am back to the voting for the lesser of two evils argument, but I never felt that my vote would be between an extremist Republican and essentially a moderate almost Republican. So many Democrats I have talked to are disillusioned, and becoming apolitcal, dropping out, and essentially don't want to watch the train wreck anymore. They are looking for diversion from disapointment, and basically have stuck their head in the sand. Many have told me they are not going to vote in 2012 unless something dramatically changes for the better.

This site represents a small segment of the electorate, a vocal one, but a small one that seeks polls to bolster their beleifs or hope. BUT, my own encounters are telling me - it is bad out there. Disillusionment will be the resounding influence in this election, and that does not bode well for Democrats who need larger turnouts to win. States like OH, PA, FL all now have Republican Governors and pretty despicable ones that I can't for the life of me understand why those voters would choose those people. But it is reflective that in those swing states conservative nutcases are winning and I fear they will win in 2012.

Can I vote for Obama? I honestly really don't want to. He represents so little of what I beleive a Democrat should represent. I crave a good Progressive in a Primary. If LBJ had run in 68 during the Vietnam debacle could I have voted for him? It would have been a hard pill to swallow, but his stance on Civil Rights and Medicare would have at least let me go to the polls and pulled the lever. I just don't know if I can do it this time despite the "worse than alternative argument."

Why is this bad? Because I've voted Democratic for every Presidential election since 1960. I certainly won't vote Republican, but if I'm thinking of sitting this one out or writing in a candidate, I can only imagine what many others are thinking who haven't always voted Democratic are thinking.

[Llewlladdwr]

31. This. This needs to be considered by all Democrats.

At some point you have to ask if the Party is going the right direction. It appears to me that for many voters the answer is increasingly 'no'. I understand that the popular thing to do here on DU is to talk about what morons the voters are but maybe, just maybe, the voters aren't the problem. Maybe the problem is that the Democratic Party needs to do a gut check and determine what it is that the people really support.

[sweetapogee]

32. I agree

while i'm not a heavy poster here, many of my posts in the last 2 years have expressed my opinion that getting or not getting the economy out of the shit-can is what will decide 2012.

[GoCubsGo]

34. 5. The district will be lost next year due to redistricting

Neither party wanted to spend much on the race, preferring to save it for a time when they'll really need it.


I'm not so sure Israel only played a "small" roll in the loss. A good example of why I believe this would be the woman who called into Stephanie Miller's show during the last five minutes of the show. It was all "Obawma hates Israel! The Democrats hate Israel! Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah!" I have little doubt that there are lots and lots more like her in that district.

[Auntie Bush]

37. How can people vote for a ReThug because they're scared?

I can't understand that thinking. How can anyone believe the ReThugs could do better at creating jobs and helping anyone but the rich? Stupid thinking!

[jimbo3]

38. Some fool took pictures of his Johnson

and put them on the interwebs. Thats why the Repubs won NY-9.

[LadyHawkAZ]

40. You only needed one reason:

#1: because the seat was vacated. if the Democrat had still been in it, there would have been no special election and no Republican win, now would there?

[former9thward]

41. Reason #5. Weprin does not live in the district.

And he would not commit to living in the district if he won. I don't think that went over well with the voters. Why couldn't the Party have selected a candidate who lived in the district. Was there not one Democrat who was qualified?