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Back in the 90s, before he attained fame for his pink jumpsuits and outdoor pens, I remember seeing Joe Arpaio interviewed for a few news docs and stories about marijuana. He usually argued that enforcing laws against possessing a dimebag was a waste of time for the police, but if the law is on the books, you should enforce it. It was essentially his roundabout way of saying that such laws might not be worth the time and energy it takes to enforce them.
I used to be a reporter and I remember I had an off the record conversation with a police officer about this issue. He said that in his community, most drug activity was 'a bunch of high school kids smoking a quarter bag in the park with their friends.' Again, I got the impression that what he was really saying was 'who gives a shit?'
A few blocks from my house there is a large festival in a park every June that attracts tens of thousands of visitors. There's a heavy police presence, but lots and lots of people smoke pot openly there (you literally can't walk 50 feet in any direction without smelling it). It's never openly stated, but it's understood that as long as you behave, the cops aren't going to hassle you for getting high. I'm sure there are many other informal truces that happen all the time around the country.
Those are the first steps I think. Once we reach a consensus that enforcing possession laws isn't worth it, you'll start to see real movement towards repealing them. Laws against trafficking and possessing large amounts will continue to be enforced and people will still go to jail for that, but hopefully we can at least start allowing people to have small amounts for their own use. Once that is established and cases dealing it make their way through the courts, it's only a matter of time before the government says 'fuck it' and makes it completely legal and regulated so they get their cut through taxes.
It will happen in baby steps, but those steps will add up. I give it 25-30 years until it's fully legal. Probably 10 or so before decriminalizing small amounts is a real possibilty. Not coincidentally, this will be when 'Generation Y' is in its 40s and exercising real power in civil society.
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