A poll has Newt Gingrich leading the pack. Here's what the numbers don't show

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.salon.com/2011/11/16/were_sure_newt_has_no_chance_at_all_right/singleton/

Wednesday, Nov 16, 2011 7:30 AM 08:23:25 CST

The GOP and electoral suicide

A poll has Newt Gingrich leading the pack. Here's what the numbers don't show

By Steve Kornacki

The most interesting thing about the first poll to show Newt Gingrich leading the national Republican horse race is how much room to grow it suggests he has.

The survey, released earlier this week by PPP, put the former House speaker at the top of the pack with 28 percent, an impressive enough mark for Newt. But it also showed Herman Cain gobbling up 25 percent — a level of support that seems likely to plunge as his devastating Rick Perry moment sinks in with Republicans. In other words, the potential may exist for Gingrich’s support to rise over 30 percent, maybe even higher, and and for him to open up a sizable lead over Mitt Romney, who many believe has the nomination in the bag.

Or maybe Newt will fall back to earth fast — especially now that Bloomberg is reporting that he actually received between $1.6 million and $1.8 million from Freddie Mac. But even if Newt plummets, there’s no reason to assume Romney will be the immediate beneficiary; more likely, someone else (maybe Cain again? maybe Perry? or Santorum?) will pick up the slack. This has been the pattern that has defined the GOP race all year.

As best I can tell, we’re looking at an unprecedented situation here. Has a candidate ever been as widely touted as his party’s inevitable nominee this close to the start of the primary/caucus season and still fared as poorly in polling as Romney?

[mother earth]

1. The GOP is a joke, even they can't stomach who they have.

[Fumesucker]

2. What the Republican PTB want and what the base wants are becoming ever more divergent..

TPTB want Willard, the base wants not-Willard.

Irresistible force, meet immovable object.

:popcorn:

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. Good question

Not being very knowledgeable about previous primary elections, I honestly don't know though I can't imagine it really bodes well for the GOP's electoral prospects next year. Inevitably, SOMEBODY has to win the nomination and I tend to believe that, when the dust settles, Romney will be the nominee as he seems to be the only viable candidate the GOP (the "establishment") will be able to "package" well enough to a general electorate to challenge President Obama next year. Huntsman really is the more "electable" GOP candidate in general but there's almost no chance in hell- unless the GOP "base" really sobers up between now and when primary voting commences (unlikely)- that Huntsman will be the nominee. The GOP base doesn't like nor trust Romney much and he's even willing to pander to them and change his position on everything in order to get himself elected POTUS. Huntsman not only has the *distinction* of having served in the Obama Administration (and spoken fondly of him) but he has also blatantly announced that there are limits to his pandering to the right-wing teabagger crowd. Based on the polling, the only candidate likely to left standing at the end of the primary season is going to be.......Mitt Romney IMHO. I still tend to believe that, whoever the nominee is, President Obama will ultimately win a second term largely on the basis of the weakness of the GOP field a la 1996 (nobody was really excited about Dole either). Hopefully, the public will dump most of the baggers in the House too and we can keep the Senate too and then (hopefully) we can have a functional Congress again. :shrug: If anything happens in 2012, I would like to see a massive repudiation of the Republicans' unprecedented obstructionist tactics and pressure on them to cut it out it so that things can actually get done that might help people. I'm not sure how likely that is to happen, however. :shrug: