The Road to Democracy is a Long One

[MineralMan]

In Egypt, citizens are now protesting the military government that was established after their protests ended the Mubarak regime. We all watched as they took to the streets and demanded that Mubarak go. That worked, and a military government was set up as a "transitional" government. At the time, we all cheered the success of the Egyptian people in ridding themselves of a despotic government. Many of us saw the uprising and its success as a bellwether for the future.

I remember posting in several threads that we should not become over-optimistic about this. I wrote that military "transitional" governments in that part of the world tended not to be as "transitional" as "semi-permanent." And now, as the Egyptian people are returning to the streets, this time to demand the democratic government they thought they had won, the "transitional" government is killing and injuring them. Now, however, the military is not on their side and is not protecting them from Mubarak's security forces. The replacement for Mubarak is now the very military that helped the Egyptians defeat Mubarak, and they're not so interested in the democratic government the people were demanding.

The Egyptians are in a very, very tough situation today, and are now facing a military opponent. The outcome is far from certain.

What will happen? I do not know. That part of the world is very hard for us to predict. The one thing that is certain is that the victory of the Egyptian people is far from complete. It is happening as I feared it might.

What should the United States do about this? There's a really difficult question. Our history of becoming involved in national issues in the Middle East is pretty dismal in its results. I fear that any demands we might make or any actions we might take will work to the detriment of the very people we are trying to help. Such has happened many times in the past. The Egyptian people want freedom and democracy, as well they should. But getting it is going to continue to be difficult, and there's little the US can do to make it less difficult.

The Middle East continues in its turmoil, as it has done for a very, very long time. Expecting fast results will lead to disappointment. That's the lesson history teaches about that region. It's going to be a long, difficult struggle for the Egyptian people.

[EFerrari]

1. A good start would be to stop making billion dollar "aid" payments

to the junta.

And the Egyptian people will win, that is certain. It must be that brave souls go to Egypt to be born because the protesters have shown the junta that they are not afraid of them and that they will lay down their lives for their revolution. There is no effectve military response to that.

[MineralMan]

2. Yes, some Egyptians are doing exactly that. They are very

brave people. However, it is by no means certain that they'll win. Not at all. As for payments, I don't have the information on how much money has been sent to this government, specifically. If you have a link I can visit, I will be happy to see the information. As for the military response, I think that is clear at this point. Their response indicates the reluctance to give up power I mentioned in my OP. It is not surprising. I expected this exact situation at the time Mubarak was overthrown. What did you expect?

[EFerrari]

3. I think those of us who understood that the US backed military

was the power that propped Mubarak up expected exactly this crisis. In a way, it's better that it erupts now and not later, while the revolution still is organized and before the junta can become even more entrenched.

Here's a Reuters link on US aid to Egypt:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/29/us-egypt-usa-aid-idUSTRE70S0IN20110129

[MineralMan]

4. That link does not tell us how much has been given to this

hunta government. Sorry. That's the number I'm interested in.

And, yes, we propped up the Mubarak government. We have a nasty habit of doing that sort of thing. Again, referred to in my OP. We don't do a very good job in that part of the world.

And now, I'm seeing people saying that "Obama must do something." What he might do isn't so clear, though. Our history is not good in that area.

[EFerrari]

7. Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:16am EST

(Reuters) - The United States has given Egypt an average of $2 billion annually since 1979, much of it military aid, according to the Congressional Research Service. The combined total makes Egypt the second largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel.

The White House said on Friday it would review U.S. aid to Egypt based on events in the coming days amid mass protests aimed at ending President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule.

Here are some facts about the aid:

-- In 2010, $1.3 billion went to strengthen Egyptian forces versus $250 million in economic aid. Another $1.9 million went for training meant to bolster long-term U.S.-Egyptian military cooperation. Egypt also receives hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of excess military hardware annually from the Pentagon.

-- The Obama administration has asked Congress to approve similar sums for the 2011 fiscal year.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/29/us-egypt-usa-aid-idUSTRE70S0IN20110129

Obama has not cut aid to Egypt. It looks like he tried to attach more strings to our aid instead.

Egypt warns U.S. on attaching conditions to military aid
Sept 29

By Mary Beth Sheridan, Published: September 29

A new source of friction has emerged between the United States and one of its top Mideast allies, with Egyptian officials expressing alarm about a move by the U.S. Senate to link military aid to Egypt’s performance as a democracy.

The Senate bill would withhold up to $1.3 billion in U.S. aid for 2012 until the secretary of state certifies that Egypt has held democratic elections and is protecting freedoms of the press, expression and association.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Mohammed Kamel Amr warned about the consequences of such a move during meetings this week with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and White House officials.

“We called on them to intervene,” said a senior Egyptian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic exchanges. Those U.S. officials “know the value of the partnership between the United States and Egypt and how much such conditions and language would be detrimental to future cooperation.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/egypt-warns-us-on-attaching-conditions-to-military-aid/2011/09/29/gIQAhX3K8K_story.html

[MineralMan]

8. OK. It sounds like we're using the aid as a tool to promote the

democratic movement, from the WaPo article. That's good. However, my opinion is that no military aid whatsoever should be sent anywhere in the Middle East. I've held that opinion since the 1960s. None. Zero. Nada.

[EFerrari]

10. That is WaHo or WH spin. We are propping up the Egyptian military

for more than one reason, Israel is one of them. That hasn't changed and likely won't change no matter who is in the WH.

[MineralMan]

13. It is a link you provided. Did you read it?

I'm sorry, but you're not really offering information, just opinions. That's fine. My OP was an opinion as well, but don't pretend that you have the facts. You do not.

[EFerrari]

14. I did give you the facts on Obama's aid to the junta.

Bus claiming, as that article does, that we are giving aid to the Egyptian military to promote democracy is so blatantly counter-factual opinion, I'd thought it would be obvious.

[xchrom]

5. I find this so interesting - we live in a post democracy country -

& they MIGHT have democracy in front.

I hope it works better for them.

[MineralMan]

6. Or they might not have it in front of them.

Not all uprisings are successful. Your other point is a matter for a different thread.

[EFerrari]

9. The Egyptians have already succeeded.

This phase will be deadly for some people but it is just details.

Here is a report from Sharif Kouddous, who is on the ground, that might interest you. He is Egyptian, fluent in both languages and has been reporting this from the beginning for DemocracyNow!

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/11/22/egyptian_revolution_enters_new_phase_as

[EFerrari]

11. I think it's amazing how much the junta's speech mirrors

the speech of those in power here when confronted by their respective insurgencies. And imo, we can learn a lot from the Egyptian revolution.

[xchrom]

12. We need to learn. I hope we do. Nt