hails from Indiana.
That's the first clue. (Maybe From was only the public face of the DLC, given he apparently had no aspirations to the Presidency and many of the founding members did?)
I googled and found a DU thread from 2004 wherein a poster asked why Indiana was so conservative and he or she got some responses from other posters.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x772I found interesting the post that mentioned that Indiana had gone from swing state before Johnson to solidly red immediately after Johnson.
I don't think religion became the fairly reliable predictor of voting that it is today until the 1970s, when the SCOTUS decided Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception, sex education, etc.) and Roe v. Wade (federal constitutional right, regardless of state law, to choose voluntary abortion during the first trimester, less so during the second trimester and much less so during the third), along with the Reed (Reid?) case (equal rights for males and females--GLBT not at issue).
Of course, the Solid Democratic South also began going solid red after Johnson.
What was the reason that so many states switched from blue or purple to red, either immediately or gradually, after Lyndon?
Was it racism (aka, especially in the West, as "states' rights") vs. Johnson's civil rights act of 1964?
Was it "I don't want to pay taxes to fund Johnson's Great Society?"
Was it something else entirely?
Red states now benefit more than blue states from the taxes paid by all the states. Was that true in 1964? I don't know. Were voters even aware of things like that in 1964? I don't know. Bottom line, I have no personal theory on why Johnson seems to have been so decisive for Indiana. Or, were they losing faith in Democrats for some reason all along and he was simply the last straw for them?
There is also the city vs. suburb vs. rural distinction. Boston still is the most liberal part of Massachusetts.
Why? People use "urban" as a synonym for "African American" or "lots of minorities." That was not my family's experience. My family's experience was cities = factories = jobs. And, for them, "jobs" meant "union jobs."
Populations are growing in every state of course, but I think most people have tended to take the same political side as their parents? (I am not at all sure of that. That was just my personal experience, along with my sister and all our first cousins in my generational level.)
Here is another message board discussion to which google led me, also focusing on Kerry. Disclaimer: I know zero about this board or the posters on this thread and have only glanced very briefly at the content of the thread.
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=67054.0If you google with more patience than I did, I think you very well might find more scholarly sources that I came up with on a quick look. Not that the opinion of scholars is necessary correct, but at least I would hope that they arrived at it armed with some facts, studies, etc.
And, of course, Obama did take Indiana in 2008 by all of one point. (I heard a respected Democratic television commentator say otherwise very recently. How quickly we forget!) T
Obama's victory had not been predicted by anyone, even Nate Silver in his purist days, even though Obama had outraised and outspent McCain there three times over. Draw whatever conclusions from all of that as you will.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Indiana,_2008