Dan Balz: Who can win the 2012 GOP nomination?

[pampango]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/22/AR2011012202305.html

Republicans' confusion about their presidential nomination contest runs deep: They are confused about who may actually run for it and confused about who might be their strongest candidate against an incumbent president who looks more formidable today than he did just three months ago. Excluding a handful of almost certain candidates - including former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum - the Republican field is full of question marks.

The list of possibilities starts with the Republican who attracts more attention than almost everyone else combined, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin. Beyond Palin, however, there are former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and perhaps a few others. Businessman Herman Cain has formed an exploratory committee. And there are also those who have said no but who still generate speculation, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

National polls offer little guidance on the likely nominee's identity, although they are heavily reported and closely analyzed for clues. The latest Washington Post-ABC News survey put the pecking order this way: Huckabee, Palin and Romney bunched between 20 percent and 16 percent among registered Republican voters, with Gingrich fourth at 10 percent. The latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll showed the order as follows: Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Gingrich, with their numbers almost identical to those of the Post-ABC News poll.

Republican presidential nomination campaigns often devolve into a contest between the party's establishment wing and its conservative or insurgent wing (although the establishment wing today is not to be mistaken for moderate). Other observers describe the contest as pitting the Fox News contingent (Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich and Santorum are all on the Fox payroll) against the rest of the field. Given what happened in the 2010 primaries, the 2012 race could be establishment vs. tea party, although everyone running will find ways to present themselves as in tune with the tea party.

[SheilaT]

1. Once again, two years out it's

just about impossible to know who will run, let alone who will win the primaries and then GOP nomination.

Someone could make a lucky guess, but that's all it will be, a lucky guess.

[monmouth]

2. I often hear them talk about a "dark horse/new face"...I just think

most repugs don't like their choices so far and would love a miracle...LOL.