Economists forecast U.S. growth on upswing in 2011

[DCBob]

From USA Today..

Economists are more optimistic about the recovery than they were just a few months ago, significantly upgrading their forecasts for 2011 as consumers open their wallets. When asked to predict, nine of 10 economists said they're more optimistic than three months ago, according to a USA TODAY survey of 46 economists conducted Jan. 13-19. They expect the economy to grow at an annual rate of 3.2% to 3.4% each quarter this year. That's up from quarterly median forecasts of 2.5% to 3.3% in an October survey.

"This growth is now becoming self-reinforcing," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "Businesses are going to take their stronger sales and begin to hire more aggressively, generate more income, and we're off and running." Zandi expects the economy to grow 4.4% this year. That's better than last year's estimated 3% growth, but well short of the 5% to 7% expansion that followed previous severe recessions.

The economists say the more robust growth will help cut the unemployment rate to 9% by year's end from 9.4% in December. They expect employers to add 200,000 jobs a month by the second half of the year, more than double last year's rate.

more: http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2011-01-24-1Aecon24_ST_N.htm

============

There has been a flurry of good news on the economy front. It does look like we are finally headed in the right direction. Fingers crossed.

[rfranklin]

1. At the predicted rate, it will only take 7 or 8 years to get us back to where we were...

before the corporations started laying off millions.

[DCBob]

5. It will be a miracle to ever get back to "where we were" since our economy of recent years..

has been built on bogus foundations. 7-8 years is not bad considering where we were just a couple of years ago.

[rfranklin]

38. Oh, I didn't want to say that and get attacked...

so I just made my comment "kinda gloomy" not total doom.

[Statistical]

2. I think 2011 will be the year we turn the corner.

Anecdotally I have commented the job market in IT has "exploded" at least in my area. The number of listings is still growing and it is taking longer for jobs to get filled.

[DCBob]

6. Yeah, I agree. There has been uptick in hiring around here too..

In fact I have a couple jobs offer possibility in works.. also IT field.

[Enrique]

3. 9% unemployment by year's end is not good news

it's a tragedy.

[DCBob]

9. And who's fault is that?

[MadHound]

4. More talking up the economy, more whistling past the graveyard,

More resorting to number tricks like last months job figures, tens of thousands of people become discouraged workers, so somehow, magically, the job numbers improved. Nice slight of hand, I think we can expect more of it.

Meanwhile, other looming factors can easily cause catastrophe. Rising gas and oil prices, inflation in general, especially food. Cities and states bankrupting, and the bust of the muni bond market. The general deflation of American wages. And on, and on.

[Statistical]

7. U-4, U-5, U-6 (which all include discouraged workers) all declined in Dec 2010.

U-3 (unemployed, willing & able to work, looked for work at least once in last 4 weeks)
Dec 2009 - 9.9%
Nov 2010 - 9.8%
Dec 2010 - 9.4%

U-4 (U-3 + discouraged workers - persons not employed who haven't look for a job in past 4 weeks because they believe there are no jobs)
Dec 2009 - 10.5%
Nov 2010 - 10.5%
Dec 2010 - 10.2%

U-5 (U-4 + all marginally attached workers - persons not employed who didn't look for a job for reason other than discouraged)
Dec 2009 - 11.4%
Nov 2010 - 11.2%
Dec 2010 - 10.5%

U-6 (U-5 + economically driven part time workers - workers who would rather work full time is full time was available)
Dec 2009 - 17.2%
Nov 2010 - 17.0%
Dec 2010 - 16.7%

Alternatively lets just look at number of persons employed
Dec 2009 - 137,960,000
Nov 2010 - 138,909,000
Dec 2010 - 139,206,000

Dec 2010 vs Nov 2010 - gain of 300K persons employed
Dec 2010 vs Dec 2009 - gain of 1.3 million persons employed

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

[MadHound]

11. Here, educate yourself

<http://www.businessinsider.com/number-of-discouraged-american-workers-hit-record-high-2011-1>

People are dropping completely off the radar, get it.

"Incredibly, the U.S. labor force is now smaller than it was before the recession started, though it should have grown by over 4 million workers to keep up with working-age population growth over this period."
<http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/labor_force_smaller_than_before_recession_started1/>

But hey, keep up that happy, happy, joy, joy talk, it might just work. Doubtful, but it might.

[Statistical]

13. Which wasn't your claim. Your claim was about discouraged workers.

People dropping out of labor force are those who responded either:
a) they do not want a job
b) they want a job but didn't seek employment at least one time in last twelve months.

If you are not employed and looked for a job in last 4 weeks then you are part of U-3.
If you are not employed and didn't look for a job in last 4 weeks because you are discouraged you are part of U-4.
If you are not employed and didn't look for a job for any other reason but still intend to be employed you are part of U-5.
If you are employed part time but want full time and can't find full time then you are part of U-6.

The "hurdle" to be considered isn't that hard. Unemployed, able to work, and looked (not applied, or got an interview" merely looked (by the applicants own definition) one time in last twelve months.

Still even if we consider everyone who "wants a job" but didn't look for one in past twelve months regardless of reason that is 6.4 million person. Up from 6.2 million persons in Dec 2009. Not the millions upon millions you claim are "dropping off the rolls".

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

[MadHound]

17. And meanwhile, the labor force has declined as people are forced from it,

But you want to pick nits in order to make the president and Democrats look good.

Thanks for demonstrating one of the biggest problems facing our economy, the partisan struggle to shift blame, while making one's party look good, all the while failing to address the economic problems facing the people, this country. Good job, you are an excellent example of that mindset. Congratulations:eyes:

[Statistical]

20. More people are working compared to a year ago. Unemployment has declined.

Those are the facts. It needs to get better but there is no logical basis to say Dec 2010 is worse than Dec 2009.

None. Just an inability to accept facts that don't fit your meme.

[MadHound]

24. Again, unemployment figures only declined because the labor force shrunk

Not because millions of jobs were added.

<http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS11000000&output_view=net_1mth>

[Statistical]

27. Number of persons EMPLOYED increased by 1.3 million person.

Since you don't like the unemployment rate ignore it.

Number of persons employed.
Dec 2009 - 137,960,000
Dec 2010 - 139,206,000

139 million people working is better than 137 million.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

While the labor force shrank the largest component of that is persons who indicate THEY DO NOT WANT A JOB. Yes people every year leave the workforce without the intent of EVER getting another job.

Persons NOT in labor force (didn't look once in last 12 months) but "want a job".
Dec 2009 - 6,218,000
Dec 2010 - 6,471,000

Persons not in the labor force who want a job only increased by ~200K over the last year..
Persons not in the labor force who DO NOT WANT A JOB increased by ~400K over the last year..

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea38.txt

Compared to a year ago.
* Number of persons working has increased.
* Average number of hours working has increased.
* Number of persons unemployed has decreased.
* Total amount spent on payroll has increase.
* Average weekly wages has increased.

There is no metric that is worse than a year ago. In a logical world (where facts matter) that is called IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

[MadHound]

29. I give up,

You are hopeless. Go study stats, please, then get back to me. It is obvious that you either can't, or don't want to see the point that not only myself, but respected economists are making.

One more thing I will pass along before I go do something more productive than beating my head against a metaphorical wall. To keep up with population growth in this country, we need 125,000 jobs/month. Do the math, we didn't even keep up with population growth.

Bye, :hi:

[Statistical]

30. The 125K number is something used by talking heads.

US demographics are constantly changing. As the boomer begin to retire in larger numbers than persons enter the workforce than number will shrink to 0 and eventually go negative.

We have kept up with population growth. The largest element of persons leaving workforce (1.3 million) are persons who do NOT WANT A JOB! The leading edge of the boomer retirement. At the peak of Boomer retirement wave almost 4.2 million persons will leave the workforce annually.

Will you still be claiming the magic and never changing 125,000 number still stands?

[DCBob]

16. I dont think anyone here is happy or joyful about the current situation..

I think maybe relieved and hopeful would be better words.

[MadHound]

19. Hopeful?

Really? What world are you living in? Vast swathes of people in this country are nowhere near hopeful.

But hey, since you're hopeful, everybody else must be the same, right?

[Statistical]

21. Likewise since YOU aren't hopeful nobody is hopeful right?

[MadHound]

25. No, actually I'm pretty objective,

But I doubt that you will believe that because you wish to desperately cling to anything that makes Obama and the Dems look good. Partisan politics is a hell of a set of rose colored glasses.

[Statistical]

28. Objective? Hardly.

Compared to a year ago.
* Number of persons working has increased.
* Average number of hours worked has increased.
* Number of persons unemployed has decreased.
* Total amount spent on payroll has increase.
* Average weekly wages have increased.
* Consumer sentiment is higher
* GDP is higher and continuing to expand

There is no economic statistic that is worse than a year ago. Now things need to get BETTER but one can't be objective and pretend things are getting worse without any statistical evidence.

Unless "objective" means I ignore all improving conditions you are hardly objective.

[DCBob]

8. Aren't you one of those who have been predicting imminent economic collapse since around 2008?

Sure there are still huge fundamental problems but clearly we weathered the storm. You have to admit that.

[MadHound]

10. I like that,

"Sure there are still huge fundamental problems but. . ."

Ignore fundamental problems at your peril.

And no, I haven't been predicting imminent economic collapse, just dealing in reality. You know, huge fundamental problems and such.

[DCBob]

12. I'm not ignoring anything.. who knows if we can fix these "huge fundamental problems"...

but now that we have survived this first major hurdle at least we have the opportunity to do so.

[MadHound]

14. We who?

Millions haven't survived a damn thing. Look at the record high rate of foreclosures, the high rate of homelessness, the increase in poverty. You may have survived that hurdle, but millions haven't.

But yes, we can fix these fundamental problems, the trouble is, we won't. Congress and our government is far too deep in the pockets of Corporate America to make the meaningful changes necessary to not only prevent corporate excesses, but the disaster that those excesses bring.

America is an empire in decline, and our country is being torn apart by corporate vultures looking to get as much as possible while the getting is good. Our middle class is being eliminated, our pay scale is being reduced, and our manufacturing is being shipped overseas. We may recover at some point, but it is going to be a long time coming and the level at which we recover to is going to be much lower than what we're accustomed to now.

[DCBob]

18. We the people.. America as a whole.

Of course there are individuals who arent making it. I may not make it.. but the nation survived a major economic catastrophe.

And yes I do agree with you that our "recovery" may be only partial and we may never the standard of living we had before.

[MadHound]

22. Individuals? Try whole cities, states, regions.

Geez, are you that insulated, that clueless. Just because you and those in your immediate circle are doing well doesn't mean that the country as a whole is doing well.

Wake up, look around, see what the hell is going on.

[DCBob]

23. Most cities, states and regions are improving..

Are you that clueless and blinded to see that? Sorry for the name calling but you started it.

[MadHound]

26. Most states are deep in debt, and making horrendous cuts,

The Rust Belt is in it's last death throes. Florida, the Southwest and other locations throughout the country are still suffering from a massively depressed housing market, the stats on homelessness, poverty, all keep rising.

If that's improvement, well. . .

[DCBob]

32. Yeah, that's true but at least there is light at the end of tunnel now...

Here is an article by economist Iris Lav that says the states debt problems are exaggerated..

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3372

[BobbyBoring]

35. Thank You

Just more blah blah blah! Food and energy prices are thought the roof. The housing situation is getting worse and will continue to do so. I wish i could be optimistic, but it's going to take more than that~

[blindpig]

15. There is a complete disconnect between these wonks...

and the reality of life for the working class. The economic indicators will surge while the working class finds itself more and more bereft of the necessities of existence as unemployment and 'austerity' grinds us down.

[bossy22]

31. no there isnt

they arent saying thats is going to be all "nice and fine", what they are saying is that the recovery is picking up. It will take a few years before we get our economy back to what it was pre-recession but that most indicators are looking positive.

[blindpig]

33. So, we must wait to be trickled upon?

That is always so satisfying.

We need jobs now, to be held hostage to the machinations of the capitalists is intolerable. We aught to get rid of them.

[BobbyBoring]

36. Speaking of mechinisations

How bout those auto check out things in every store you go in now. The one's that 1/2 the people can't figure out how to use. Everyone of those auto checks used to be a job until some genius figured the corp could make an extra 22.6 mil a year by replacing employees that wanted shit like pay, breaks, benefits, etc with machines.

Until we get past the "Profit is everything" mind set of big corpa, we're screwed~

[Scurrilous]

34. K & R

:thumbsup:

[BOG PERSON]

37. it's encouraging

to know that the same guys who were predicting blue skies before and after the crash in 2008 are still predicting blue skies.

[NickB79]

39. I wonder what skyrocketing food and energy prices will do to this growth?

http://www.thenation.com/article/157974/resource-revolts

I'm sure that won't have ANY effect on the economy though :sarcasm: