Thai insurgents flex their muscles

[unhappycamper]

Thai insurgents flex their muscles
By Anthony Davis
Jan 26, 2011

RA-NGAE, Thailand - The most serious tactical reverse suffered by the Thai military in seven years of counter-insurgency operations in the country's southern border provinces, an insurgent assault on an army base in Narathiwat province on January 19, has painfully underscored three often overlooked realities of the Malay-Muslim separatist conflict.

The first is that Bangkok's repeated claims that violence is declining and hearts and minds are being won are largely hollow. The second is that while much of the day-to-day killing in the southernmost provinces of Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat is undertaken by local cells operating with some autonomy, the insurgency remains - as it has been for much of the past decade - a well-structured organization with a coherent leadership and an effective chain of command capable of planning, coordinating and executing complex operations with lethal efficiency.

The third is that Malaysia continues to provide sanctuary and access to areas for insurgent training, including apparently for last week's attack.

For Thai military planners, the concern now is that the Ra-ngae raid on January 19, like a similar attack on a military base in neighboring Cho Airong district seven years ago, may mark the opening shots of a new and more militarily aggressive phase of a conflict which, by some estimates, has already claimed over 4,300 lives. Thai military and independent analysts who spoke to Asia Times Online noted a range of factors that appear to have culminated in an attack intended at seizing a fresh supply of military weaponry.

At the political level, the attack came following a period of mounting frustration within the upper echelons of the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (National Revolutionary Front, or BRN) - the group understood by the Thai military to be the driving organizational force behind the insurgency. According to one reliable source with access to key leaders, this frustration stemmed from anger over a series of alleged extra-judicial killings by security forces. "There has been a steady build-up of concern over treatment of the population and impunity," the source said.