Who is this man and why is his presence in Egypt scaring the shit out of the U.S. and Israel?

[Poll_Blind]

He's Mohamed ElBaradei. Just finishing up a 12-year run as Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), he has been awared the Nobel Peace Prize, Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, the Greatest Nile Collar (highest civilian award in Egypt), Golden Dove of Peace award (from Italy) and so on and so on. It is quite a list!

He is the unofficial favorite to be the next President of Egypt, especially for leading a transition government. During protests today he and his supporters had water cannons turned on them and he has now been placed under house arrest. He has strong support among the opposition parties in Egypt and there is a high likelihood that he will emerge from this crisis in a very strong political position.

But there's one small problem: He doesn't take shit from either the United States or Israel. Or Iran or any other country for that matter.

Egypt under an ElBaradei government could enter into a level of national independence not known in at least 30 years. An independent Egypt, however, also upsets the main pivot in the delicate balance of Western influence (vis a vis the U.S. and Israel) in the Middle East. Representative Democracies do not benefit the United States interests as well as authoritarian ones do. Because Democracies can be very unpredictable and maintaining the status quo in the region has been elevated by U.S. foreign policy to something of an art form.

Anyway, keep an eye peeled for news about the safety and health of the man in the picture below. You won't be the only one!



PB

[davidinalameda]

1. why would Israel be afraid of him?

[Poll_Blind]

3. The U.S. and Israel are two legs that wear the same shoe and a both are likely to lose out in...

...a situation where there is any sudden change in the balance of power in the region. If other countries follow suit it could change the political and security makeup of the Middle East. After all, there is just as likely a chance that whomever fills the power vacuum (if it comes to that) in Egypt could be extremely anti-Western. As president, nobody knows exactly what direction Egypt would take. It would almost certainly be a prosperous one but how sides would be chosen, politically, is another matter.

OnEdit: I should be clearer because maybe this isn't general knowledge. Although we normally hear about Israel's relationship with the Gaza Strip, the security situation there is as much in the hands of Egypt as it is Israel. Mubarak has worked very closely with the United States and Israel, and he has lost a great deal of political credit because of it. Whomever his successor is will be aware that a good portion of the anger that isn't directly related to the economy or corruption is directed at the cooperation with the United States (especially) and also, to a slightly lesser extent Israel.

PB

[Kalyke]

16. For example, not allowing fleeing Lebanese passage into Egypt

when Israel was attacking that country.

[DCKit]

5. Israel had a large unreported, unregulated stash of nuclear weapons.

Mr. El Baradei isn't afraid to talk about it, or our hypocrisy in helping them cover it up.

What little I've seen from him indicates he would make Egypt a very different country.

[defendandprotect]

18. US and Israeli weapons production are so closely intertwined that you can barely

tell the difference between them --

Nixon began arming right wing Israeli hawk/religious fanatics --

and buried peace-loving Israelis --

In that way, US gained a foothold in the ME to create mayhem and take the oil!

[PCIntern]

39. That's why Israel returned the oil-rich Sinai Peninsula...

to the Egyptians.

What?

[sulphurdunn]

42. After the Yom Kippur War The Israelis

realized that they couldn't afford to hold Sinai indefinitely against a hostile Egypt even if Syria were neutralized.

[defendandprotect]

46. Liberal peacekeepers in Israel did manage to rise on occasion ....

but always destroyed very quickly -- history reflects how quickly!

Carter's efforts with Sadat and Begin --

Prime Minister Rabin's noble efforts at peace --

that was pretty much the last of it --

All of this ended up with fierce attacks on Carter and the undermining of his

presidency -- the assassination of Sadat --

and the right wing assassination of PM Rabin --

There is a very strong peace movement in Israel -- always has been --

and a strong peace movement in America and throughout the world --

but power remains in the hands of right wing fanatics both in Israel and in America.

Long live the MIC!! ??????????????????????????

And they will murder to keep it going --

[snooper2]

6. Because he's likely not to just "look the other way"

When Israel pulls their bullshit

[Better Believe It]

9. Time magazine reports that "Israel appears to be backing the Mubarak regime"

7.30pm GMT:

Time magazine talks to "a minister in the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," and reports that Israel appears to be backing the Mubarak regime:

With a deep investment in the status quo, Israel is watching what a senior official calls "an earthquake in the Middle East" with growing concern. The official says the Jewish state has faith in the security apparatus of its most formidable Arab neighbor, Egypt, to suppress the street demonstrations that threaten the dictatorial rule of President Hosni Mubarak. The harder question is what comes next.

But this was the most eye-catching quote from the unidentified minister:

"I'm not sure the time is right for the Arab region to go through the democratic process."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/blog/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-live-updates#

[Poll_Blind]

27. Yeah, that quote is not making Israel any more popular, to put it mildly.

The level of hubris is dizzying.

PB

[DissedByBush]

36. They have good reason to do so

Israel is afraid of a revolution resulting in another Iran. Egypt as a hard-core Muslim state could mean death for Israel.

Remember, these countries say that Israel has no right to exist whatsoever, in any form, with any borders.

Leaving Israel with one square yard of territory in the area would be offensive.

Egypt has been the main country around to try to have regular relations with Israel, really Israel's only friend.

[xchrom]

2. I don't believe the people think elbaradei

Is an automatic successor.

This a youth driven uprising - largely not
Ideological - and they want to see a break with the status quo.

Now the former bush admin would not have much of a love affair
With elbaradei - because he said there were no WMDs in Iraq.

[Poll_Blind]

8. Especially at this time, I don't think anyone has much of a handle on...

...how anything is going to come out. However, if the Mubarak government were to be ousted, it appears the ElBaradei enjoys wide support. I would direct you to this section of his Wiki page, not only describing his popularity but also his expressed desire to go after the position, should it open up.

IIRC, he flew back into Egypt just yesterday expressly to participate in the protests against the government.

PB

[Catherina]

10. All the twitters I read before this indicate NO support of him

The US was working on making Baradei their new puppet as the least objectionable choice. I don't trust him for a Socialist Egypt. :hi:

[formercia]

30. I read that too from the activists

"Where was he on Tuesday?" He only showed up when it was safe to.

[xchrom]

11. yeah -- i've been following his return, and already knew his resume.

i'm responding merely to the idea that elbaradei is a shoe in?

and i think that it's because the west finds itself 'surprised' that is a largely politically or ideologically unaffliated uprising.

we constantly describe the arab world in term of islamist extremism -- and here we are with out just exactly that.

[quiller4]

25. I agree. ElBaradei has been out of the country more than in for

the past two decades. Many of the young people in the streets don't even know who he is. They have closer ties to other, younger dissidents who are detained in Egypt's prisons.

[eissa]

4. The ideal outcome of all this would see Baradei

lead Egypt. He truly is the right person at the right time. He enjoys immense credibility and international respect, widespread support among Egyptians, AND republicans hate him, making him all the more appealing :-)

[annabanana]

34. I think so too. . . . n/t

[Better Believe It]

7. Thanks for your post and intelligent, informed comments.

[WinkyDink]

12. Is upsetting "a delicate balance" something YOU want, or something

ElBaradei wants?

[Poll_Blind]

13. In any outcome where Mubarak is ousted from power, especially one in which...

...something closer to a real Democracy emerges, it will be the end of the status quo. The U.S. and Israel count on the static nature of Egypt under Mubarak and anything else will almost certainly lead to less U.S./Israeli influence with Egypt. Unfortunately, governments that benefit U.S. and Israeli interests doesn't always benefit the people they're supposed to represent.

I wasn't speaking about my hopes or ElBaradei's.

PB

[Maine_Nurse]

20. Real "democracy" is not very likely. nt.

[BOG PERSON]

14. oh my god, there's an indira gandhi peace prize?

that is just sick. sick, sick, sick.

[quakerboy]

40. Interesting reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indira_Gandhi_Peace_Prize

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indira_gandhi

[Inuca]

15. I doubt that either

the US or Israel are scared by the idea of ElBaradei replacing Mubarak. Under the circumstances, it's probabably the best possible outcome. He may be tough, but he is smart, western-educated and pro-western (not necessarily in terms of politics, I have no idea about that, but he is part of the "western culture"). I have no idea how likely it is, though....

[defendandprotect]

17. Think he was reported detained by police officers in Egypt ... if the bulletins are correct?

Part of the pro-democracy movement in Egypt!

[Poll_Blind]

19. I'm not sure how solid that information is. Things are obviously very fluid at the moment and...

...I'm not entirely sure who the police or military are going to be reporting to in, say, the next 48 hours. Along with general coverage of the unrest both Al-Jazeera and Iran's PressTV have both been covering ElBaradei, specifically. In other words they've been reporting the state of things, generally, and then commenting either on ElBaradei as a political contender if Mubarak is out.

I haven't heard anything about his status in a while but as it is late over there, I would not be surprised if he was in his house for the night.

PB

[stranger81]

23. Reuters, Guardian & other outlets now reporting El Baradei under house arrest.

And if the security police decides to Steve Biko him, there's going to be hell to pay.

[Poll_Blind]

43. He gave a telephone interview about an hour ago to Al-Jazeera Arabic and sounded...

...to be in good spirits and feisty as hell!

:thumbsup:

PB

[stranger81]

53. Thank god. Have been nursing a sick toddler all day, and haven't seen much news.

Is he still (or was he ever) under house arrest?

The world is watching this time. I hope the scrutiny will help keep him safe.

[defendandprotect]

28. Michael Moore was reporting it earlier today... think I threw a link in somewhere in this thread?

Pro-democracy leader Mohamed El Baradei was placed under house arrest after he and his supporters came under fire from police water cannons.

They were then trapped inside a mosque for nearly an hour while officers laid siege to it, firing tear gas in the surrounding streets so no one could leave.

That's a quote from another article --

[Octafish]

21. Kick for democracy.

Rec for Dr. ElBaradei.

Thank you, Poll_Blind!

[fascisthunter]

24. what he said

[spanone]

22. he's not that well known in egypt. his chances of taking over don't look very good.

this is according to m$nbc correspondent richard engel who is on the ground in cairo

[Monk06]

26. IIRC he refused to back Bush's claims that Saddam Hussein was developing nuclear weapons.

The Bush and Blair hated his guts and tried to have
him removed from the AEA. I also seem to recall that
the US was instrumental in having AEA inspectors pulled
out of Iraq so the dogs of war could go out and play.

[PerpetuallyDazed]

29. I suspect Egypt is going to find another autocratic ruler.

Does ElBaradei have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization whose sole existence is to promote Islamic (religious) law? They mentioned the connection in ElBaradei's wiki entry and I'm just curious to know his affiliation with the group... his supposed credentials/political ambitions do not appear compatible with theirs.

[geckosfeet]

31. Jeeeezuz. He looks like one mean mutha effing dude.

[Zoeisright]

32. ElBaradei is am amazing man.

I find it incredible that people in this country, who supposedly support democracy, are then bemoaning the fact that a democratically elected leader might not be "good for us". What hypocrisy.

And perhaps if we as a country had behaved better over the years, we wouldn't be in these situations. Other countries that hate us hate us for a reason.

[southernyankeebelle]

33. Maybe he knows where all the bones are buried. When you are doing wrong

and he knows it he might be in a position to do something about it.

[Turborama]

35. K&R thanks for posting n/t

[Poll_Blind]

37. Breaking now, ElBaradei on Al-Jazeera Arabic making the following statements

This is what he's said so far, paraphrased:

Mubarak should step down
The people want to help the military and work with them
Anything other then free elections, the people's demands, will lead to more deterioration. I hold Mubarak responsible.
Not sure who is in control, Mubarak or army.
He must step down or Egypt will collapse.
Mubarak should step down today.
Seeking parliamentary and governmental assurances.
The regime, the whole world should realize that Egypt will not go back home until their demands were answered.
(Speaks about Mubarak's successor) Anything other than a democratic response is pharonic. (Pharoh-like)
We shoudl head towards forming a national unity government
Government should be democratic
Should get rid of the dictatorship in which we have been living for the last 50 years.
Why has Mubarak waited 5 days to address the people on television but the speech he did finally give was empty.
Mubarak does not understand the people.
(In response to US statements) These statements either support the people or the (Mubarak) regime, there is no middle ground.

And direct calls for the Egyptian military to take the side of the people, not the side of the tyrants.

PB

[MasonJar]

38. I would be very satisfied if Mr. ElBaradei could assume the reins

in Egypt, but if this action turns yet another Mid Eastern country into an Islamic state, I will be very upset.

[Poll_Blind]

41. I'm getting a vibe that at this point that they will not accept an "Islamic state" solution and...

...that the protesters are very focused on a solution which nets them the kind of modernity and prosperity that neither a dictatorship nor a religious government can produce. In short, from all I've seen the Egyptian protesters are actually quite savvy about the options available to them and are not keen to accept a move down or laterally.

ElBaradei is not in a terribly commanding position at the moment but he is still the personality out front. His calls for the Obama administration to back either the Egyptian people or Mubarak and, for instance, the intelligence chief that Mubarak has chosen as his successor vis-a-vis the Vice Presidential appointment he made today are catching the ears of the Egyptians who are very keen to have a government which does not kowtow to the U.S. and which has gets the level of respect it deserves.

Also, and this is delicious, but ElBaradei has a great deal of experience rejecting the bullshit doubletalk from the U.S. in regards to policy versus words.

PB

[customerserviceguy]

44. I've been trying to do some research on him

and while in addtion to the things mentioned above, I find that he's pooh-poohed the idea that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. That led me to try to find out what sect of Islam he's aligned with, and I can't find it, does anyone know?

[Inuca]

45. I don't know, but probably sunni

as most egyptians. And it probably does not matter much, since he is very westernized.

He is most likely a decent and very smart man. And his chances of bvecoming Egypt's next leader are very close to zero, IMHO.

[tavalon]

47. here's hoping open elections happen and

that Mohamed ElBaradei is their chosen leader. I know it will get Isreal and the US's panties in a twist but all I have to say about that is quit wearing each others panties!

[bertman]

48. Thanks for the post, Poll_Blind. Very interesting. Rec. nt

[Yavin4]

49. Whomever Takes Over Will Have to Deal with a Moribound Economy

So maintaining friendly relations with the West is the key to economic recovery.

[Luschnig]

50. El Baradei is not in the picture

Anyone listening to the Egyptian protesters would hear the chant: No Mubarak, No El Baradei, No Muslim Brotherhood, We want no leaders we just want democracy. The demonstrators really want democracy and definitely don't want a celebrity who'd made his life outside Egypt. The people of Egypt look at him as a Western imposition.

[Poll_Blind]

52. Links, please. I've been watching both Al-Jazeera English (which is also...

...doing carryover reporting from Al-Jazeera Arabic) along with Iran's PressTV and neither of them have reported any such thing, despite having numerous reporters on the ground, especially Al-Jazeera English/Arabic. Not only that but both agencies have continued to cover ElBaradei as the primary opposition figure. In fact, outside of general coverage of the protests themselves, he is the only individual associated with the opposition they are continuing to cover that status of. Period.

:shrug:

PB

[BrklynLiberal]

51. May he live long and prosper...