Mubarak is 83. There's been talk of succession for years. Son was "supposed to" win fall elections

[Hannah Bell]

Current Issues in U.S.-Egyptian Relations

Presidential Succession: Who will Follow Hosni Mubarak?

Uncertainty over the potential successor to 81-year-old President Hosni Mubarak has clouded
Egyptian domestic politics and U.S.-Egyptian relations for the last decade.9 In 2009, there have
been rumors in the Egyptian press suggesting that Mubarak’s health has deteriorated, that he is
frail, and that he is emotionally distraught over the death of his 12-year-old grandson. Another
wave of arrests of Muslim Brotherhood leaders accompanied by speculation that parliament
would dissolve early and new elections would follow also have contributed to the uncertain
atmosphere surrounding the President’s future.

Based on a series of constitutional amendments enacted in the last few years, ruling elites have
worked to establish the veneer of a legal framework to facilitate a smooth transition of power,
despite claims by the opposition that the amendments are illegitimate. For potential presidential
candidates not from the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Egyptian law sets a high bar for
establishing eligibility to run. For example, amended Article 76 states that for any candidate to
run for president, he or she has to gain the approval of 250 members of elected assemblies and
municipalities, including, among other signatures, 25 members of the Shura Council (upper
house), which is almost entirely composed of pro-ruling party members. In addition, a candidate
representing a political party must be a member of the party’s respective higher board for at least
one year. Parties that have had at least one member in either house of parliament since May 1,
2007, are eligible to nominate a candidate for the presidency until 2017. Finally, all parties that
nominate a candidate must have been legally operating for at least five consecutive years before
the starting date of candidature.

The next presidential election is scheduled for the fall of 2011. Gamal Mubarak, the President’s
46-year-old son, is, according to most experts, the overwhelming favorite to follow his father. The
younger Mubarak has had a meteoric rise to the highest levels of the NDP, suggesting to many
observers that his accession to the presidency may be imminent. Gamal Mubarak is already
deputy/assistant secretary general of the NDP party, and was appointed to the NDP’s new 50-
member Supreme Council, which will choose the party’s presidential candidate. In the summer of
2009, the Coptic Pope Shenouda III wholeheartedly endorsed Gamal Mubarak stating, “I wish
and pray for God to prolong Hosni Mubarak’s life, but the presidency issue has got nothing to do
with succession....

Most Egyptians love Gamal Mubarak and they will vote for him ahead of any
other candidate running against him in elections—that is if they find anyone to run against
him.”10 During President Mubarak’s visit to the United States in August 2009, he stated in an
interview that “We have never discussed it. Nobody knows who will succeed—we have elections.
When the time comes for elections, the people will vote.”11

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf

[DCKit]

1. Geez, I wish my dad had been a more successful tyrant. nt

[Hardrada]

2. Is this an AP story??

[Hannah Bell]

3. no, i put the wrong link. it's the congressional research service.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf

[Hardrada]

4. OK, thanks!

[Hannah Bell]

5. there's quite a bit of interest in that report: e.g. a rapproachment with iran, & this:

40 Bread is heavily subsidized in Egypt, with prices affordable to anyone, though in limited quantities. As food prices have increased, consumer demand for subsidized bread has risen. Many observers assert that the entire subsidy system is broken, as many government-subsidized bakeries conspire with corrupt bureaucrats and inspectors to sell their allotments to private bakeries.

Larger families in need of more bread must turn to private distributors, whose prices skyrocketed in 2008, and shortages compelled President Mubarak to order the military to bake additional loaves.

Between 2007 and 2008, an estimated 11 people died in bread lines either from heat exhaustion or stab wounds suffered in altercations for positions in line.

In 1977, when the Egyptian government temporarily lifted its bread
subsidy, 70 people were killed in rioting, and then President Sadat had to order the military to deploy to Cairo to restore order. For five days, the government lost control of its capital city.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33003.pdf

[Hardrada]

6. Those are the sort of details we never get elsewhere. Well worth reading.