46% of GOP Primary Voters Who Favor Palin Might Back Third-Party Option If She Isn’t Nominated

[LuckyTheDog]

Nearly half of the Republican Primary voters who support Sarah Palin say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if she does not win the GOP presidential nomination.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters who favor Palin say they are at least somewhat likely to vote third-party if she isn’t nominated. That includes 22% who say it is Very Likely.

More: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/january_2011/46_of_gop_primary_voters_who_favor_palin_might_back_third_party_option_if_she_isn_t_nominated

:toast: :popcorn:

The GOP primaries will be a freak show.

[Dogmudgeon]

1. We just won 2012

Now we have the Hearts and Minds vote to win.

--d!

[Skittles]

2. BRING IT ON

I want those teabagging bastards to be the death of the Greedy Old Pig Party

[napi21]

3. Oh YEAH! Divide & conquer! nt

[applegrove]

4. rotflmao!

[DainBramaged]

5. The Guns For Jesus party (GFJ)

I love it.........

[gateley]

6. That'll show 'em!

:evilgrin:

I wonder how many Republican Primary voters there are that DO support Palin. This is 46% of that group, right? Not 46% of the GOP? How many are there, like twelve, maybe? :shrug:

[LuckyTheDog]

8. About 19%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/january_2011/romney_holds_slight_edge_over_huckabee_and_palin

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leads the pack with the support of 24% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the party’s nominee for vice president in 2008, runs second with 19%, closely followed by Mike Huckabee with 17%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

[gateley]

19. Boy. All losers. :-). Thanks. nt

[IDemo]

7. She's The PaliNader n/t

[Exultant Democracy]

9. I don't really buy those numbers, it's just a little too good to be true.

There were similar polls done during our primary in 2008 about Clinton supporters and Obama, but they all turned out to be an over exaggeration.

[Blue_In_AK]

10. I always assumed Sarah would go third party.

She thoroughly pissed off the Republicans in Alaska, and she's probably doing the same with mainstream Republicans nationwide. She's too vain to step aside.

[roguevalley]

24. I agree, Blue. She can't not have her face out there.

[tridim]

11. If the number is only 10% we still win. A real operation chaos, Rush.

[Pisces]

12. She is not running much less going to be nominated. The established Repubs have

already threatened her with some kind of Rovian blackmail. She will not run.

[Atman]

13. All 247 of them?

Damn! That's a lot!

[LoZoccolo]

14. That would be funny, but there's an incentive to engage in posturing at this point.

People do it all the time when they won't be held accountable, such as when they are responding to a poll or post a message online. They probably want to coerce other people into getting behind her.

[aquart]

15. 46% of GOP primary voters? Or 46% of GOP primary voters who want Palin?

Because those are different numbers. And even Palin gets under 50% willing to support a third party.

Damned misleading headline.

[bluestateguy]

23. Rasmussen counts on people being too dumb to know how to read a poll

So if say Palin gets (I don't know, I'm going to just throw this number out there) 25% of the primary vote and loses the nomination, then 46% of those voters would only consider not voting for their party nominee. So now you are talking about 11-12% of all GOP primary voters. And since the language in the poll uses the word consider that means that surely many of those prospective bolters will fall back into line, especially seeing as how we are 18 months away from the election and Palin will likely do her duty and endorse the nominee.

[BlueCaliDem]

16. Right. They'll piss and moan, but when it comes down to voting,

they'll vote for a RepublicOn first chance they get.

These people are used to be told what to do, and as the good little RepubliBots they are, they'll do what the party tells them.

[MasonJar]

17. Awwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RKP5637]

18. Great idea! Sounds like a plan to me for them! Great for us! n/t

[Ozymanithrax]

20. Nice prediciton, but I'll believe after the voting is done. n/t

[bluestateguy]

21. 46%, huh?

Expect that number to dwindle down to about 10% by election day.

Republicans are inherently deferential to authority and will vote for who they are told to vote for.

On the other hand, angry Palinistas may do no more than cast a quiet election day ballot for the nominee, as in no volunteer work and no money.

[cbdo2007]

22. I'm guessing she'll run as a third party candidate - they'll split the vote with the GOP and Obama

will win easily.

[rhett o rick]

25. When Karl Rove is done with her no one will vote for her. nm

[Statistical]

26. Next to meaningless....

Palin currently polls in sub 20%. That number is likely to fall not rise.

Still roughly half say they will vote 3rd party. That is 50% of 20% or 10% of the GOP.

In reality 3rd party support always nosedives right before election (as the reality of throwing away a vote becomes clear).

Likely by election day it is Palin with 10% support and maybe 20% of those vote 3rd party = 2%.

[Kaleva]

27. That's a rather small number of Republicans as Palin trails several other potential candidates

[jmowreader]

28. But since Sarah the Grifter's not actually running, this is moot

It comes down to simple economics.

The president of the United States receives $400,000 per year.

Sarah Palin currently makes that every two weeks.

Palin, assuming she hasn't pissed off all her "base" by then, will serve as The Kingmaker. They'll vote for whoever Grifterella tells them to.