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Events in Egypt, and other areas of the world, have created interest in the dynamics of what is known as “rebellion.” Obviously, people with different interests in terms of promoting versus discouraging social rebellions view these events from distinct perspectives. Thus, it should come as no surprise when different people describe what is happening in very different ways. For example, if one watches the televised news, they hear various analysis from politicians, journalists both in the studio and in Egypt, and Muslims in the United States and in the Middle East.
Even within the fields of the social sciences (which include areas such as sociology, political science, and history), there are a wide range of theory regarding the causes and consequences of rebellions. Most, however, recognize that rebellions aim to bring changes in three general areas: culture; economics; and socio-political institutions.
Further, there are at least seven types of rebellions (also known as “insurrections”) that can take place. Add to this the fact that a rebellion can easily combine two or more of these seven, and the often confused/confusing reporting on events in Egypt may become slighter clearer. These seven types are:
1- Mutiny: this takes place in the military, of course, and will probably be the deciding factor in Egypt.
2- Civil disobedience: The classic examples include Gandhi's efforts to remove British rule from India; and King's efforts to gain equality for one group within the United States.
3- Resistance movements: These involve “freedom fighters,” seeking to remove an occupying force.
4- Revolts: These tend to be localized efforts.
5- Subversion: These often use tactics of sabotage, though not in the non-violent manner of civil disobedience.
6- Terrorism: The extreme form of violence.
7- Revolution: The over-turning of a system.
In my opinion, what is taking place in Egypt is a revolutionary movement. It appears to be one that encourages the military to reject the established authority of Mubarak. There are, of course, people on the news expressing concern that the atmosphere in Egypt may encourage the members of radical groups (resistance movements) to seek to gain leadership positions in the current circumstances. Regardless if one has any respect for the positions that a Wolf Blitzer promotes, this general concept has some degree of validity. Hence, it may be worth examining a few general theories of revolution.
The historic theories that most Democratic Underground members are familiar with would probably be those of Alexis de Tocqueville. He saw three general types: {1} the classic political revolution; {2} the sudden, often extremely violent type that creates a “new order”; and {3} a slow, sweeping type that transforms a society over a period of generations. This third type can be as a result of a new religious movement; or, as John Neisbett noted in 1982, as the result of new technologies – especially those that create a “high information” society. The reports about the role that cell phones and the internet have played in Egypt may seem somewhat exaggerated, but there seems no doubt that technology has played an important role.
More recently, Charles Tilly identified five types of revolution that are worth looking at: {1} a coup; {2} top-down seizures of power; {3} civil wars; {4} a series of revolts; and {5} the classic revolutions, based upon economics and social structures. As ignorant as they are, those who identify with the Tea Party tend to identify with the theories of Tilly – although they probably do not realize this, or understand the potential consequences of their stupidity.
The third theorist that I think is important to this discussion is Theda Skopol, the first tenured female sociologist at Harvard. Some consider her to be controversial, because her thoughts on conflicts between interests groups were influenced by the writings of Karl Marx. (I'm not offended by that.) In 2003, she published “Diminishing Democracy,” about the decline of civics in the United States, which I strongly recommend.
Skopol identified four dynamics in modern society that play roles in revolutions: {1} a state social structure that does not promote (or allow) equality; {2} international competitive pressures; {3} an international demonstration effect; and {4} class/group relations. In terms of #3, one would look at events in other countries, known to the people of Egypt by way of the internet, etc, that could encourage rebellion.
I could go on and on. (I usually do.) But I'm getting tired, and my daughters are asking me to watch a Kennedy special on television. I hope that this little contribution helps people to see some of the dynamics that are taking place in Egypt today. Again, in my opinion, the essential thing for the US government to do today is to advocate for as orderly a transfer of power there as possible.
Peace,
H2O Man
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