I think there is ZERO chance of Egypt becoming a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy

[cherokeeprogressive]

They're in the streets risking their lives while demanding democracy. Does anyone in their right mind think they'll lay down and accept the rule of a handful of mullahs? How many signs have you seen carried by people demanding that Egypt be governed by theocrats? None. Egypt a fundamental Islamic theocracy? Not on your fucking life, and CERTAINLY NOT AFTER FACING THE GUN BARRELS OF A DICTATOR.

Not. On. Your. Fucking. Life.

In the end, Egypt becomes an even STRONGER ally of the United States. Bank on it.

And then... the dominoes will fall. Very few ME governments will oppose the demands for change, and here's why: Their militaries will not support their attempts to remain in power, and here's my reasoning: I might wear the uniform, eat well, walk with purpose, and generally be treated better than the general population, but I have relatives... relatives who have been oppressed and mistreated for decades, nay, centuries. In the end, I'll side with them when they decide to take to the streets.

Some here think that the ME is about to be taken over by fundamentalists... In my heart I believe that the ME is about to be taken over by those who oppose theocratic governments.

The question that will be the hardest to answer when it's all said and done is... LOL I'll leave the arguing about who's responsible and why to DU'ers who are smarter than me.

[notesdev]

1. Egypt will not be friendly to the United States in the future

We kept a brutal dictator in power there for a generation. More than half the country has lived their entire lives under this dictator's state-of-emergency rule (they've been under an official state of emergency since 1967).

They know that a great deal of the reason he held power so long was the US' support. And in case it wasn't perfectly clear to everyone, the rest of the region is also littered with US-lackey despots.

If they are angry at us, we deserve it. We need to change our behavior, and until we do, the world's anger towards us is well-justified.

[cherokeeprogressive]

3. Bet.

They want our support. At this moment, Secretary of State Clinton is on record as saying last week that the Mubarek government is stable. Vice President Biden said Mubarek isn't a dictator. Today Secretary Clinton said something ABSOLUTELY contrary to what she said last week. She said that we're hoping for a peaceful transition to something she refused to define.

No matter how strongly you wish that your government be prosecuted for past wrongdoings, that's not going to happen. Not going to happen. Do you understand that? Not. Going. To. Happen. No matter how hard you wish it to be so, it will never be so.

Getting back to reality...

What the Egyptians want is something you're going to be hard pressed to define as other than western style democracy. They want Levi's, Rock'n'Roll Radio, Hip-Hop, and WiFi hotspots for their EVOs and Iphones. In other words, they want what the REST OF THE FUCKING WORLD HAS.

They don't care what got them to this point, they want what they want RIGHT FUCKING NOW.

Have fun convincing them that the US is the reason they don't have that already.

[notesdev]

9. It's not me convincing them

it's the tear gas cannisters stamped with "made in the USA" on them.

Hard to weasel out of that one.

[pampango]

19. If Vietnam wants to be our friend, anything can happen. Much depends

on how this plays out. If this delay in resolving Mubarak's regime, ends without the army opening fire on civilians and Hosni is gone in a few days, by guess is that most Egyptians will accept that as a viable solution. Pressing him harder to leave immediately would be satisfying, but if it resulted in bloodshed some might wonder why we pushed so hard so fast when it seemed that a 30-year dictator was almost gone anyway.

[Archae]

2. I heard people say that about the Shah's Iran, too.

[cherokeeprogressive]

4. Yeah, have fun convincing people who weren't even BORN then that your

view of the world is the only one that counts.

Call me later and tell me how that worked out for you.

[Hannah Bell]

6. where does he say his view is the only one that counts? as i said in another

post, i was dating an iranian student during iran's rev (shah to ayatollah) -- & was somewhat hooked in to the iranian community at the university of washington because of it.

he's right. no one i knew at the time was expecting fundamentalism. you may find it hard to believe, but it's true.

i'm not saying i expect that, but i'm not so naive about the results of popular uprisings as some here seem to be.

things happen in the gap.

[blindpig]

23. No matter...

if this revolution does not go all the way, if some reactionary faction hangs on to power, the people have tasted their power too. 1905 begat 1917.

[blondeatlast]

31. Interesting; I too was dating an Iranian attending ASU. He didn't want to

return but didn't feel safe in the US sdo soon after the hostage crisis. I think this will turn out well, but I also harbor some doubts. All I can say is that I'm thankful GWB isn't handling the US side of this--and that, literally, is all I can say about it.

[LooseWilly]

12. I remember sitting with my Iranian father watching the news of the revolution as a kid.

He never guessed on Theocracy.

From the quotes coming out in the news, even if it's a secular nationalist government that comes of this, they won't be thinking fondly of the US. The US is siding with the status quo and the Mubarak government... not the protestors. The quotes of protestors to news media suggest that the Egyptian protestors are leery of being used as US pawns to help support the position of Israel...and nothing the government's doing is liable to ameliorate that suspicion/fear.

Ohh yeah, and I will happily bet that most of the protesting Egyptians know not only the history of the '79 revolution in Iran, but also the '53 CIA coup overthrowing the nationalist government of Mossadeqh in Iran. And I'm sure that the Egyptian protestors can find Iran on a map, unlike so damned many Americans who probably can't find Egypt OR Iran on a map.

Just because many American teenagers can't tell you anything about the Iranian revolution or Iran-Contra, doesn't mean that the rest of the world is so oblivious about what's been happening near them...

[NWHarkness]

13. I agree with Archae

I hope that you are correct, but everything you said about Egypt was said about Iran in 1979.

There are actually some advantages to having been alive awhile.

[Archae]

33. I still remember all the "Pilgrims to Khomeni"

He was looked at by a lot of anti-Shah people as their Chosen One, even though his vicious fundamentalism was right out there on public display.
I knew that Iran was headed for the shitcan if Khmomeni and his cronies got into power, and sure enough, while the Shah was dragging Iran behind the latest tanks, Khomeni and Co. were headed straight back to the cave.

This situation repeated itself in Afghanistan.

I'm hoping this doesn't happen again, this time in Egypt.

[leftynyc]

24. Why so bitchy?

I didn't see that claim anywhere in that post. If you don't think looking at history is helpful, you're too young and ignorant to be posting here.

[Hannah Bell]

5. I was dating an Iranian student during the rev. I can tell you that he & his friends were

very supportive -- and he wound up staying in the US.

They didn't have a clue what was coming.

[madinmaryland]

22. Interestingly, I went to college with a lot of Iranian students during the revolution,

and many of them became stranded in the US. They either did not want to go back or could not go back without the threat of death.

[MrModerate]

7. That would be nice, but . . . You'd expect Americans to be just as aware . . .

of who oppresses them and who doesn't, but they keep electing Republicans.

[grahamhgreen]

8. I agree. The biggest danger lies in failing to support the people now.

[Recursion]

11. OK, what does "support" mean?

The nothing we're doing is basically what we can do. And protesters don't need (or necessarily even want) our government's approval.

[grahamhgreen]

32. Support, in our case,

means withdrawing financial support from the regime.

A statement as vague as "We encourage Mubarak to consider stepping down", would most likely suffice.

[Recursion]

10. The chance is definitely greater than 0

There are some people in Egypt who want that, so it's possible it could happen.

As I judge it, the probability is greater than 0, but less than 1.

[quaker bill]

14. You might be right

on the other hand, you could be catastrophically wrong. There is this curious mismatch between the forces that desire peace and civil democracy. and those who will strap a bomb to their chest and go to the theater not intending to see the closing credits.

[Teaser]

15. You think that, huh?

well here's to hoping you're right.

[cali]

16. Why would anyone make such an absurdly absolutist statement?

Although I don't think that's the way it will go, of course there's a chance.

[lostnfound]

17. "Reading Lolita in Tehran.." Iranian progressives thought the same

and they ended up with Khomeini. I hope you are right. The Iranians didn't have Twitter or Al Jazeera.

[starroute]

18. But the ayatollahs were deeply involved in the Iranian Revolution

Khomeini's speeches had been getting smuggled into Iran on cassette tapes for years. Progressive young people may have been surprised that they ayatollahs came out on top, but they were clearly the ones with the planning and the infrastructure.

There is no comparable fundamentalist involvement in what is happening in Egypt. The Moslem Brotherhood may have its supporters, but they haven't been part of the organizing -- and even they are a lot more moderate than they once were, typified by middle-class professionals and not by fanatical firebrands..

The revolution in Iran took a religious turn largely because the Shah's secret police had destroyed any possibility of political radicalism. But the revolution in Egypt is centered neither on politics nor religion but on culture. Its public persona is Facebook and Twitter, rap and blue jeans, cellphones and video-game slogans on signs saying "Game over, Mubarak."

It's a revolution of young people who want to get rid of the cronyism and corruption and have some hope of a meaningful future. The last thing they want is a government that will make it illegal to party. And there are no old men with beards who are going to tell them different.

[SoCalDem]

20. We thought the same about Iran.

Egypt is more than Cairo & Alexandria.

[AngryAmish]

21. This is what we need right now - absolute certainty about the events in Egypt

Remember, one is always certain is always correct.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

25. I know you're wrong.

"Not much chance"? Well, by all means, go on and make your case. I don't agree with you, but I'd be willing to listen and to be convinced if you can make a strong case.

"Zero chance"? Don't be so silly.

[pampango]

26. I don't think there's a zero percent chance of anything in Egypt, but it's hard to argue

with a popular movement to throw out a 30-year repressive dictator. Some revolutions result in positive change, some with one "frying pan" to another one that is slightly colder or hotter.

Mubarak has played the "it's me or al queda" card for 30 years to scare the west into supporting him as the lesser of two evils. Right now the uprising seems to be led largely be secularists. That doesn't guarantee a positive outcome, but the chances are better than most people would have thought a couple of months ago.

[Swede]

27. Opportunists often seize power after a popular revolution.

It happened throughout history. The revolutionaries often wind up lined up against the wall.

[NutmegYankee]

34. Agree

France under Napoleon, England under Cromwell, etc.

[former9thward]

28. The exact same thing happened in Iran in 1979

Students and others were in the streets risking their lives against the Shah. They became a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy.

[Codeine]

29. There's a huge power vacuum now.

If there is one thing Islamists know how to do with deft efficiency it's fill a power vacuum. The MB is playing this movement like a fiddle in my estimation.

I hope to hell you're right and I'm wrong, but I'm not too convinced at the moment.

[sufrommich]

30. The Middle East should not be lumped together as if it

were The Borg. Egypt is different than Iran,Iran is different than Algeria,etc. Attempts to predict outcomes based on what happens in other countries are naive at best

[NutmegYankee]

35. And France overthrew their king only to crown an emperor 15 years later.

Revolutions often end like that.

[uppityperson]

36. That would be nice but I won't bank on it. As history has shown, that doesn't

always happen.