ok a strategic look at the world and the ME and what is going on here and now

[nadinbrzezinski]

Egypt is the pivot of a revolution. Yes, Tunisia started as far as the ME is concerned (even though both Egypt and Tunis are in North Africa)... but this is not something to sneeze at.

Israelis (as in the Israeli government) is having a real case of pepto bismol by the truckload, since the old devil you know is better than the new one you do not know. For Israel this will be a hard stretegic matter. If the peace treaty with Egypt collapses, there will be ANOTHER war. No, not me saying it... why Egypt was critical.

Now my opinion is that the new Egyptian government will not want to go back to 1967 or 1973... even if in 1973 they did bloody the IDF and it is seen as almost a good war. Now SOME in Egypt may want to go there... but whoever succeeds will not want to. That does not mean that this will be an easy state to move one way or the other.

What we are seeing is a popular revolution. This scares everybody, even democratic Israel. I said it yesterday, this is a reaction to globalization and economic pressures. It will NOT stop in Egypt. In some places, the RIGHT may be voted out... in others it will take this kind of commitment, and yes. blood. But in my view what we are seeing is a reaction and that is scaring the pants out of leaders.

Now to the US... depending on what happens and how we act just how much soft power evaporates. No, it is nto a matter of whether it is going to go away,,,, but just how much. It is another pointer of how much we are now a declining power.

Now to Israel... expect it to look for new patron states, and for it's alliances with both China and India to strengthen. It is a survivor, and if they perceive Israel is getting abandoned by the US... whether because we decide to, or more likely our soft power is mostly gone... well guess what? Like France before us...

But the RIGHT all over the world is scared about this.

Oh and I will not discount the Muslim Brotherhood from getting SOME power out of this... after all the play book AQ uses was invented by them, and fascilitaed by the Egyptian state, with a lack of social services for the poor.

Oh and just now on Al Jazera, the army will not turn on the people. Now confirmed. Listening to it while doing work while waiting for hubby to finish his class, across from the college.

[Vinnie From Indy]

1. I am not so sure about the inevitability of another war between Egypt and Israel

There are still many strategic factors in play that will not vanish regardless of who takes power. One factor in the making of peace between Israel and Egypt was the Egyptian's choice between development or complete destruction from the Israeli Air Force. The Aswan Dam project is still a strategic target for the Israelis should Egypt attack and advance to a position of completely defeating Israel on the ground. Bombing the Aswan Dam would send a massive wall of water from Lake Nasar roaring down the Nile channel destroying most everything in its path. I doubt that the Egyptians would be willing to pay that price for another shot at destroying Israel. In addition, there are many other strategic military aspects involved that should not be so quickly dismissed.

In addition, I would not categorize the US relationship with Israel as "soft" power. Israel's relationship with the US is like no other and they no doubt would ONLY abandon our mutual interests in the most extreme circumstances.

I think you are incorrect in regard to the Muslim Brotherhood as well. Their "playbook" (whatever that is exactly) is nothing like Al Queda's stated goals. While it is obvious that both groups are trans-national in scope and have Islam as a major component, they are not so nearly alike as your post implies. The MB has denounced the 9/11 attacks and other incidents of terrorism in the past.

Cheers!

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. I did not say they will take power, I said the MB will take SOME power

as in actual real seats in Parlaiment. And yes, they do things like take care of the poor people and do things like safety net, since there is no safety net. They are easy to coopt by any secular state... have access to schools, clean water, food and hospitals for the poor. They don;t care who provides, it, just that somebody does.