From "Five Things You Need to Know about the Egyptian Armed Forces" (from Stevan Cook's blog)1. The senior officers are the direct descendants of Gamal Abdel Nasser and the Free Officers who built the Egyptian regime...
2. It is a tremendous relief that the military has declared that it will not fire on protestors, but also not unexpected... the declaration about restraint also has to do with internal military dynamics. There is a split in the armed forces between the senior command on the one hand and junior officers and recruits on the other who would refuse to fire on protestors. This has long been the Achilles heel of the Egyptian military...
3. What is the strategy? To contain and control the protests for as long as possible and play for time. From the perspective of Mubarak, Vice President Omar Soleiman, the chief-of-staff General Sami Annan and the others now clinging to power every day provides an opportunity to try to weaken the opposition and peel the less committed from the demonstrations. Is it any wonder that Soleiman started talking about constitutional change today? The senior command believes they can save the regime. Delusional? Perhaps, but not surprising given their deep links to the regime... http://blogs.cfr.org/cook/2011/01/31/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-egyptian-armed-forces/This is what keeps me from being as optimistic as I would like to be about the prospect for this popular uprising resulting in a democratic revolution.
If the people heading up the armed forces really wanted Mubarak gone, he would not still be in Egypt, would he?
- B