Which of these two possible outcomes in Libya is more awful?

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

Yeah, I know, there are other possible outcomes. But this post is about two particular outcomes in which the "good guys" don't win.

A) Qaddafi defeats the rebellion, stays in power, kills everybody who so much as said "hi" to a rebel once;

B) Civil war goes on for a decade or more; no side is able to advance much on the other. Periodically, cities are taken and retaken with ridiculously high death tolls.

I admit I don't know which is worse. More, I'm starting to fear these two are the only outcomes with a measurable chance of happening.

[EFerrari]

1. Imo, Gaddafi has already lost.

The real question is who, on either side, will become the strong arm and how will that person behave.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

4. That would almost certainly be less bad than A or B. I hope you're right. -nt

[CJvR]

5. Perhaps...

...someone should inform Gaddafi of that - and tell the running rebs that they can stop running. ;-)

[RKP5637]

2. As long as Gaddafi remains it will definitely be a F'en mess whichever/whatever

F'en mess it is ...

[truedelphi]

3. Does it really matter?

In any event, 45 million plus in America cannot get any health insurance. Another tens of however millions cannot get treatment, as their rent expenses, insurance premiums, utilities' costs, etc are so sky high they have nothing left for needed treatment, which is provided only after the person has proven they can provide the deductibles and co-payments.

[JuniperLea]

6. All those things are hideous, no question...

But as long as people can manage to stay alive they have hope. There was little hope of staying alive in Lybia before NATO went in.

This is the problem with comparing apples and oranges... long term "solutions" to short term problems.

[gratuitous]

7. Those are two distinctly possible outcomes; I'd add a third

C) Qaddafi is deposed (killed or exiled), and in the ensuing chaos, nobody knows what's going on. Finally, someone emerges, ruthless enough to seize power, vanquish opposition, and install himself as the new maximum leader. The band begins playing the same old song as before, but now it's someone not named Qaddafi. No other change is discernible.

[CJvR]

8. I suspect even...

...a partially liberated Libya is preferable even given your assumption of a long abd savage civil war.

[Ozymanithrax]

9. There is a third) People we don't know win and do things we don't like...

I base that on calls by many that we should not support the rebels because we don't know who they are.

[JoePhilly]

13. "calls by many" ... sounds like when Fox news uses "some say"

because they want to push a specific narrative with no specific attribution.

It is very well known that the Bush administration made this mistake in Iraq (or leveraged it to make their lies pass by easier).

They certainly appeared to have no idea that Kurds, Shia, and Sunni are totally different groups with VERY different perspectives on what Iraq "should" have become.

Bush used the fact that most Americans have no idea that there are different groups of Muslims, or that not all Arabs are Muslim at all. It made shifting focus from OBL to Saddam Huseein so much easier.

You claim you are concerned because "we don't know who they are". Highly doubtful.

Do you think Hillary's state department doesn't know, country by country in the ME, who the relevant sub groups are? Which are Shia, or Sunni? Which are tied most closely with the Palestinians?

I think our state department, under Hillary, is not about to make Bush's Iraq mistake yet again.

[Ozymanithrax]

21. Lots of threads on this website about these...

people we don't know and why we should not support them.. This is one of them.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x759985

And I was being scarcastic, because I think the idea that we don't know who they are is bullshit. I forgot the Sarcasm icon.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. In almost any case, the people lose.

“What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy.” - Gandhi

[The Magistrate]

11. Hard To Say, Sir, As Neither Seems Particularly Likely

Too much face has been invested by leading Western powers in this for Gaddahfi's survival in power to be countenanced; whatever people may manage to say with straight faces from behind podiums, the purpose of the exercise by now is to drive him from power in Libya, and that can and will be contrived, probably by mid-May or early June.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

14. Mmmm. Shall we pit our futuristic olfactory senses against each other?

If Gaddafi is booted from power before June 30, I mail you a R$ 10 bill. If he's still there, you mail me a US$ 5 bill. Deal?

[The Magistrate]

16. Sounds Square, My Friend...

"Murphy was an optimist...."

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

18. Then it's ON! When the time comes, the winner PM's the loser his snail mail address.

Virtual shaking of hands?

[The Magistrate]

19. Done, Sir

Best of luck all around, Sir.

And hopes for the best outcome possible for the people of Libya.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

20. Just between us:

I really want to lose.

[damntexdem]

12. If it really is those two, I'd say b.

At least some will have lives for some time, with chances to flee before cities are taken.

Of course, if air strikes are pursued and the rebels are armed, other outcomes are more possible.

[daleo]

15. Iraq and Afghanistan are reasonable precedents

In those cases:
- we oust leadership we don't like.
- we put in troops because new leadership needs them to maintain any semblance of control.
- asymmetrical warfare begins, with many killed including many western troops.
- tens to hundreds of billions of dollars are borrowed to support the war.

[The_Casual_Observer]

17. The "rebel" supporters believe that Qaddafi is the Wicked Witch

of the West, just like Saddam & the Taliban was supposed to be. Just pour water on them & the spell is broken.
Such is the level of thought that goes into the consequences of these wars.