Reply #3: Only nine points between the Libs and the NDP in Ontario

[Minstrel Boy]

brings a whole lot of stuff into play. It's very close to being called a three-way race. Because, of course, it's not only our percentage that matters, but the spread between the parties that determines how many seats we win. So long as neither the Conservatives nor Liberals make a rout of it, we'll do very well with our 23 or so percent.

And very encouraging is the fact the NDP continues to rise, quietly, with every polster (even with Ipsos Reid's fetish for the Greens), and Layton continues to impress (he has the greatest momentum of any leader).