Reply #1: Probably till 2005, or even 2006

[muriel_volestrangler]

If about 80 Labour MPs made it clear they'd vote against Blair, there could be a vote of no confidence against Blair, which would force an election (by voting with thte Lib Dems AND the Tories).

But they'd be risking their own seats; and would piss off many of the Labour party members in their constituency, who they need (a) to work on the reelection campaign, and (b) to allow them to stand as the Labour candidate (candidates for a party are selected by the party members for that constituency; I don't know what would happen if there was an unexpected election - the local party members might be able to get rid of an MP if they wanted to).

So you need 80 MPs (about 1/5th of them) who disagree with Blair, and who think the majority of their local party members disagree with Blair, and who think they'd still get elected, if they deposed their own leader (and some people would never vote for someone who did that). It's easier for them to wait and see what happens.