Reply #3: I think if you saw Brown take over, he'd definitely lose the next election

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A no confidence vote would be a gift for the tories. It would save them from their own self-destructive tendencies.

And I think that's why it's unlikely that you'll see a no confidence vote.

My prediction (or my hope): Kerry wins. Blair and Kerry work together to turn the ME into a group of nations which could become EU members (ie, democracies, wealthy middle classes, etc) if they wanted to. Tory party disappears. Lib Dem and Labour become the oppositional parties in UK gov't. The Green party evolves as a legitimate third party in British politics.