Reply #22: I think it started pre-Iowa

[Anwen]

Pre-Iowa, I think it began with a combination of things.

First, Gephardt & Dean's negative commercial war -- people in Iowa decidedly wanted a positive message and quickly tired of the negative ads. Add to the equation Kerry, who instantly became a war hero when a guy he rescued just happened to show up in Iowa right before the election. Also, the Governor of Iowa's wife came out last minute and threw her support behind Kerry, while Edwards got some major newspaper endorsement. The media also began their sublte attacks during this time, repeating Dean's slipping poll numbers and questioning if he had peacked too soon.

That is my basic theory. I think Dean could have recovered in New Hampshire, but after Iowa came the infamous speech...and the rest is history.