the low accuracy of political forecasting-2002 article

[MBS]

Cleaning out papers, I found this from a May 6, 2002 issue of the New Yorker.
The article, "The Newcomer", was about the possible Dem contenders for the coming 2004 election.
Sort of delightfully far off! Article was mostly about John Edwards, as the Coming Thing.

The author, Nicholas Lemann, isn't my favorite, but he's not an idiot, either. . . and he got it wrong anyway. And the batting average of most cable-TV/talk-show hosts has got to be way lower than New Yorker writers. .. If you're as anxious as I am about the post-2010 political future, maybe you'll find it comforting to remember that of all the 24/7 chatter in cyberspace, TV and elsewhere, at least 90% is bound to be wrong.

Eight years isn't really so long ago, but, reading this article, it feels like ancient history: SO much has happened since then. And -- this is the point -- most of it wasn't anticipated. JK as 2004 nominee, getting to a hair's breadth of winning the presidency! Obama as our president in 2008! Of the people mentioned below, Gephardt is long retired, Daschle lost his reelection bid for the Senate and Edwards' political career is completely over. So much for the Coming Thing.

The 2004 Democratic Presidential campaign began more or less officially a few weekends ago, at the state conference of the Florida Democratic Party, in Orlando. So many Democrats are already running flat out for President that it was a relief to have the race come out into the open. . . Gore’s appearance, at such a resonant location, dominated the conference. .. Most of the political talent on display mingled casually with the conference-goers, but Gore maintained the charged scarcity that befits a top act. . .
Senator Joseph Lieberman, of Connecticut, who had the second-most-featured speaking slot at the conference, after Gore, and would plainly like to run if he can get free of his pledge not to compete directly with his former running mate . . Senator John Kerry, of Massachusetts, who also spoke at the conference and is almost certainly running . . The House Minority Leader, Richard Gephardt, of Missouri, who is probably running. . The Senate Majority Leader, Tom Daschle, of South Dakota, who is thinking about running. . .
There are always newcomer Presidential candidates. This time, the leading one is Senator John Edwards, of North Carolina. . .
What you hear about him (since this is the insiders’ time, when people don’t feel the need to dress up what they’re thinking in public-policy garb) is: This guy’s a big, big talent, maybe the biggest since Clinton. . .