Reply #1: Thanks for your analysis

[karynnj]

I agree with you that it is less dark than it seems. It also seems that this is a very nice rebound of Kerry's numbers.

Looking at the detailed results, I think the young were under-represented. That age group was too small to detail on the charts. There were 472 people surveyed and 37 were from 18 - 29. In 2008, 21.1% of eligible votes in MA were in that category. You would have expected more than double the 40 needed to detail that cell. (They seemed to use population weights to calculate the composite number.)

Other observations, Kerry does significantly better with women than Brown does - typical for democrats. One category where Brown has a huge advantage is with those over 65. (This group is over represented - they are 17.9% in the population and are about 25% here.)

I also suspect that if the Democrats are able to make an issue of the votes that Brown has cast - like the vote for the Wicker amendment that would have made unionization of the TSA illegal and the votes for the various Republican budgets, he will lose support - even if it does not show in his approval rating.

Given that both Kerry and Brown are significantly over 50, there have to be people approving both. This in spite of a media that has written endless Brown puff pieces and always seems to take the worst view possible of Kerry. Their approval of Kerry is likely because they really do approve of the positions he has taken over the years. Positions that Brown often votes against - I keep wondering if the Brown opponent will use the same type of questions Kerry used against Weld - who would you vote for as Majority leader? Chair of the environmental committee (Boxer or Inhoffe).

I also wonder how long it will take more people to see that it is Kerry meeting with people and politely and seriously answering their questions no matter what they are - and doing so for reporters as well. This while Brown seems to not be taking questions far too often. I hope the MA media force Brown to say whether he supports the cuts to all the endangered social programs.