Reply #4: The most serious danger at this point is that the rumors of Kerry SoS after 2012 lead some serious

[Mass]

candidate not to run in 2012.

It only took a few hours after Hillary Clinton's interview on CNN for them to resurface.

http://thephoenix.com/BLOGS/talkingpolitics/archive/2011/03/16/hillary-says-no-2nd-term-and-helps-scotto.aspx?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PHXTalkingPolitics+%28Talking+Politics%29

Hillary Says No 2nd Term -- And Helps Scotto?
Published Mar 16 2011, 02:01 PM by David S. Bernstein 0
Hillary Clinton tells CNN's Wolf Blitzer that she is not interested in continuing to serve as Secretary of State in a 2nd Obama term, should he win re-election.

That will undoubtedly stoke the already rampant rumors that John Kerry will become Secretary of State after the re-elect.

Already, some political insiders in Massachusetts tell me that this rumor is helping persuade some of the state's Democratic heavyweights -- the Congressional delegation, for instance -- to pass on the 2012 cycle. Why give up your current seat to challenge Scott Brown, the theory goes, when you can wait for the special election for Kerry's seat in 2013?

I don't particularly buy the idea that Kerry would get that appointment -- and I am even more skeptical after Kerry's loud calls for a Libya no-fly-zone, in the face of the Obama administration's reluctance. That's not a public stand someone takes if they're in waiting for the administration's State post.

But what I believe is not important. What matters is whether Capuano, Lynch, et al believe it sufficiently to serve as their excuse to take the easy re-elect to Congress rather than the risky race against Scotto.

So I'd have to say that Clinton's emphatic no to the second term should be greeted with big smiles in the Brown camp today.



Read more: http://thephoenix.com/BLOGS/talkingpolitics/archive/2011/03/16/hillary-says-no-2nd-term-and-helps-scotto.aspx?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PHXTalkingPolitics+%28Talking+Politics%29#ixzz1GngzAgmT

Bernstein is generally well informed about MA politics, and it would not surprise me that he is right. Brown is a serious candidate, but he is beatable and, as his election shows, things can change quickly. The worse thing that could happen is that serious people decide they dont want to run or enter in the race too late lacking name recognition.